The Influence of Five Teleconnection Patterns on Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methodology
2.1. Data
2.2. Extratropical Cyclone (ETC) Identification and Tracking
2.3. Composite Analysis and Correlation Analysis
2.4. Poisson Regression Model of the ETC Count
3. Results
3.1. Change of ETC Density
3.2. Influence of Teleconnection Patterns on ETC Track Density
3.3. Statistical Modeling of ETC Counts
4. Summary and Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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P! = 0 | EV | SD | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | 100 | 4.0020 | 0.0232 | 4.0102 | 4.0106 | 4.0000 | 3.9998 | 4.0119 |
NAO.nov | 63.0 | −0.0355 | 0.0353 | −0.0528 | ─ | −0.0504 | ─ | −0.0407 |
NAO.dec | 9.6 | 0.0030 | 0.0138 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
NAO.jan | 6.9 | 0.0014 | 0.0080 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
NAO.feb | 3.2 | −0.0003 | 0.0046 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
WP.nov | 43.6 | −0.0192 | 0.0267 | ─ | −0.0460 | ─ | −0.0452 | −0.0337 |
WP.dec | 9.8 | −0.0026 | 0.0109 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
WP.jan | 3.7 | −0.0002 | 0.0052 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
WP.feb | 2.6 | −0.0001 | 0.0036 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
PDO.nov | 46.3 | −0.0200 | 0.0276 | ─ | ─ | −0.0312 | −0.0331 | ─ |
PDO.dec | 15.4 | −0.0059 | 0.0239 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
PDO.jan | 12.0 | 0.0059 | 0.0226 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
PDO.feb | 6.1 | 0.0015 | 0.0114 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
PNA.nov | 4.6 | −0.0002 | 0.0062 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
PNA.dec | 4.6 | 0.0008 | 0.0069 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
PNA.jan | 18.7 | 0.0066 | 0.0172 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
PNA.feb | 17.1 | 0.0055 | 0.0154 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
ENSO.nov | 10.7 | 0.0064 | 0.0382 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
ENSO.dec | 7.6 | −0.0007 | 0.0343 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
ENSO.jan | 5.4 | 0.0001 | 0.0152 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
ENSO.feb | 4.9 | −0.0001 | 0.0139 | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ | ─ |
BIC | −109.73 | −109.19 | −108.93 | −108.76 | −108.47 | |||
Post prob | 0.019 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.010 |
Method | MSE | RMSE | MAE |
---|---|---|---|
BMA | 3.07 | 1.75 | 1.59 |
Smallest BIC | 4.25 | 2.06 | 1.91 |
Smallest AIC | 12.13 | 3.48 | 2.99 |
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Xie, N.; Sun, Y.; Gao, M. The Influence of Five Teleconnection Patterns on Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1248. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111248
Xie N, Sun Y, Gao M. The Influence of Five Teleconnection Patterns on Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(11):1248. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111248
Chicago/Turabian StyleXie, Naru, Yidi Sun, and Meng Gao. 2020. "The Influence of Five Teleconnection Patterns on Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific" Atmosphere 11, no. 11: 1248. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111248