Author Contributions
Conceptualization, E.D.L.-E.; Data curation, E.D.L.-E. and O.G.-R.; Formal analysis, E.D.L.-E., J.Z.-H., R.M. and O.G.-R.; Funding acquisition, E.D.L.-E. and R.M.; Methodology, E.D.L.-E. and J.Z.-H.; Resources, E.D.L.-E. and J.Z.-H.; Software, E.D.L.-E.; Supervision, E.D.L.-E., J.Z.-H., R.M. and O.G.-R.; Validation, E.D.L.-E.; Writing—original draft, E.D.L.-E. and O.G.-R.; Writing—review and editing, E.D.L.-E., J.Z.-H., R.M. and O.G.-R. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Figure 1.
Study area and location of meteorological stations (red circles) used for the evaluation; the colors represent the types of climates that predominate the area.
Figure 1.
Study area and location of meteorological stations (red circles) used for the evaluation; the colors represent the types of climates that predominate the area.
Figure 2.
Domains of the numerical experiments. The father domain or Domain 1 (red) has a 20 km horizontal resolution with 245 × 162 grid points, and the nested domain or Domain 2 (blue) has a 6.7 km horizontal resolution with 205 × 124 grid points. The study area is located within Domain 2.
Figure 2.
Domains of the numerical experiments. The father domain or Domain 1 (red) has a 20 km horizontal resolution with 245 × 162 grid points, and the nested domain or Domain 2 (blue) has a 6.7 km horizontal resolution with 205 × 124 grid points. The study area is located within Domain 2.
Figure 3.
LULC datasets for the study area: (a) USGS, (b) NALCMS. Pink circles represent location of meteorological stations. (c) White represents the areas that changed from 1993 to 2005, yellow represents the areas that do not show LULC changes, (d) brown represents the dryland cropland class with a 250 m resolution, and pink represents the same class at a 6.667 km resolution.
Figure 3.
LULC datasets for the study area: (a) USGS, (b) NALCMS. Pink circles represent location of meteorological stations. (c) White represents the areas that changed from 1993 to 2005, yellow represents the areas that do not show LULC changes, (d) brown represents the dryland cropland class with a 250 m resolution, and pink represents the same class at a 6.667 km resolution.
Figure 4.
Time series of station 6 in the State of Mexico for the near-surface temperature during the 120 h forecast for January 2012. The horizontal axis corresponds to the hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the temperature in degrees Celsius. The thick lines (---,-*-,-o-) represent the monthly average and the shaded area represents one standard deviation. Green (-o-) represents the average of observations, red (-*-) represents the average of the experiment using the NALCMS data, and blue (---) represents the average of the experiment using the USGS data. (a) 24 h forecast, (b) 48 h forecast, (c) 72 h forecast, (d) 96 h forecast, and (e) 120 h forecast.
Figure 4.
Time series of station 6 in the State of Mexico for the near-surface temperature during the 120 h forecast for January 2012. The horizontal axis corresponds to the hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the temperature in degrees Celsius. The thick lines (---,-*-,-o-) represent the monthly average and the shaded area represents one standard deviation. Green (-o-) represents the average of observations, red (-*-) represents the average of the experiment using the NALCMS data, and blue (---) represents the average of the experiment using the USGS data. (a) 24 h forecast, (b) 48 h forecast, (c) 72 h forecast, (d) 96 h forecast, and (e) 120 h forecast.
Figure 5.
RMSE between the predicted and observed values for the monthly average of the daily temperature of the 10 stations during the 120 h of forecast. The horizontal axis corresponds to the forecast hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the RMSE in degrees Celsius. Gray boxes represent the NALCMS RMSE and black boxes represent the USGS RMSE for (a) January, (b) April, (c) July, and (d) September.
Figure 5.
RMSE between the predicted and observed values for the monthly average of the daily temperature of the 10 stations during the 120 h of forecast. The horizontal axis corresponds to the forecast hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the RMSE in degrees Celsius. Gray boxes represent the NALCMS RMSE and black boxes represent the USGS RMSE for (a) January, (b) April, (c) July, and (d) September.
Figure 6.
RMSE and MAE for the stations during the 120 h of forecast. The horizontal axis corresponds to the forecast hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the RMSE or MAE in degrees Celsius. Solid black and gray lines represent the NALCMS experiment, and black and gray dotted lines represent the USGS results. Average daily maximum temperature: (a) dry season (January and April), (b) rainy season (July and September). Average daily minimum temperature: (c) dry season (January and April), (d) rainy season (July and September).
Figure 6.
RMSE and MAE for the stations during the 120 h of forecast. The horizontal axis corresponds to the forecast hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the RMSE or MAE in degrees Celsius. Solid black and gray lines represent the NALCMS experiment, and black and gray dotted lines represent the USGS results. Average daily maximum temperature: (a) dry season (January and April), (b) rainy season (July and September). Average daily minimum temperature: (c) dry season (January and April), (d) rainy season (July and September).
Figure 7.
Time series for station 6 in the State of Mexico for the wind speed at 10 m during the 120 h forecast. The horizontal axis corresponds to the simulated hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the wind speed in m s−1. The thick lines (---,-*-,-o-) represent the monthly average and the shaded area represents one standard deviation. -o- (green line) represents the average of observations, -*- or red line (--- or blue line) represents the average of the experiment using the NALCMS (USGS) data. (a) 24 h forecast, (b) 48 h forecast, (c) 72 h forecast, (d) 96 h forecast, and (e) 120 h forecast.
Figure 7.
Time series for station 6 in the State of Mexico for the wind speed at 10 m during the 120 h forecast. The horizontal axis corresponds to the simulated hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the wind speed in m s−1. The thick lines (---,-*-,-o-) represent the monthly average and the shaded area represents one standard deviation. -o- (green line) represents the average of observations, -*- or red line (--- or blue line) represents the average of the experiment using the NALCMS (USGS) data. (a) 24 h forecast, (b) 48 h forecast, (c) 72 h forecast, (d) 96 h forecast, and (e) 120 h forecast.
Figure 8.
RMSE between the model and observations of the average monthly wind speed at 10 m for the 10 stations during the forecast of 120 h. The horizontal axis corresponds to the simulated hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the RMSE in m s−1. Gray color boxes represent the NALCMS RMSE and black color boxes represent the USGS RMSE. (a) January, (b) April, (c) July, and (d) September.
Figure 8.
RMSE between the model and observations of the average monthly wind speed at 10 m for the 10 stations during the forecast of 120 h. The horizontal axis corresponds to the simulated hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the RMSE in m s−1. Gray color boxes represent the NALCMS RMSE and black color boxes represent the USGS RMSE. (a) January, (b) April, (c) July, and (d) September.
Figure 9.
RMSE and MAE of the average maximum and minimum wind speed for the 10 stations during the 120 forecast hours. The horizontal axis corresponds to the simulated hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the RMSE or MAE in m s−1. Solid black and gray lines represent the NALCMS experiment, and the black and gray dotted lines represent the USGS experiment. Average maximum wind speed: (a) dry season (January and April), (b) rainy season (July and September); average minimum wind speed: (c) dry season (January and April), (d) rainy season (July and September).
Figure 9.
RMSE and MAE of the average maximum and minimum wind speed for the 10 stations during the 120 forecast hours. The horizontal axis corresponds to the simulated hours and the vertical axis corresponds to the RMSE or MAE in m s−1. Solid black and gray lines represent the NALCMS experiment, and the black and gray dotted lines represent the USGS experiment. Average maximum wind speed: (a) dry season (January and April), (b) rainy season (July and September); average minimum wind speed: (c) dry season (January and April), (d) rainy season (July and September).
Figure 10.
Average hourly precipitation for station 10 in the State of Mexico during the 120 h
Figure 1. The thick bars represent the monthly average. Green bar represents the average of observations, and the red (blue) bar the average of the experiment using the NALCMS (USGS) data. (
a) 24 h forecast, (
b) 48 h forecast, (
c) 72 h forecast, (
d) 96 h forecast, and (
e) 120 h forecast.
Figure 10.
Average hourly precipitation for station 10 in the State of Mexico during the 120 h
Figure 1. The thick bars represent the monthly average. Green bar represents the average of observations, and the red (blue) bar the average of the experiment using the NALCMS (USGS) data. (
a) 24 h forecast, (
b) 48 h forecast, (
c) 72 h forecast, (
d) 96 h forecast, and (
e) 120 h forecast.
Table 1.
Comparison of the main characteristics of the USGS and NALCMS LULC data used in the experiments.
Table 1.
Comparison of the main characteristics of the USGS and NALCMS LULC data used in the experiments.
| USGS | NALCMS |
---|
Sensor | AVHRR | MODIS |
Period of data collection | April 1992–March 1993 | January 2005–December 2005 |
Processing | By continent | 3 regions |
Input data | Monthly NDVI compositions | Different data by country |
Spatial resolution | 1 km | 250 m |
Classification strategy | Unsupervised based on grouping | Supervised with threes C5 (for Mexico) |
Legend system | 24 USGS | 19 LCCS-FAO |
Developers | USGS-IGBP | CCRS, USGS, INEGI, CONABIO, CONAFOR |
Table 2.
Translation from the NALCMS to the USGS classification scheme.
Table 2.
Translation from the NALCMS to the USGS classification scheme.
Anderson’s Classification Scheme | USGS | NALCMS |
---|
Urban | Urban and built up land | Urban and built-up |
Agricultural land | Dryland cropland/pasture | Cropland |
Irrigated cropland/pasture |
Rangeland | Grassland | Tropical or sub-tropical grassland |
| Temperate or sub-polar grassland |
Shrubland | Tropical or sub-tropical shrubland |
| Temperate or sub-polar shrubland |
Forest | Deciduous broadleaf forest | Tropical or sub-tropical broadleaf deciduous forest |
| Temperate or sub-polar broadleaf deciduous forest |
Evergreen broadleaf forest | Tropical or sub-tropical broadleaf evergreen forest |
Evergreen needleleaf forest | Temperate or sub-polar needleleaf evergreen forest |
Mixed forest | Mixed forest |
Water | Water bodies | Water |
Barren land | Barren or sparsely vegetated | Barren land |
Table 3.
Land cover change at each station. ID represents the location in
Figure 1.
Table 3.
Land cover change at each station. ID represents the location in
Figure 1.
ID | Station | USGS | NALCMS |
---|
1 | Huimilpan, Qro. | Shrubland | Cropland |
2 | Pachuca, Hgo. | Grassland | Grassland |
3 | Huamantla, Tlax. | Evergreen Needleleaf Forest | Cropland |
4 | Universidad Tecnológica de Tecamachalco, Pue. | Evergreen Needleleaf Forest | Cropland |
5 | Parque-Izta-Popo, Edo. Méx. | Mixed Forest | Evergreen Needleleaf Forest |
6 | Presa Madín, Edo. Méx. | Shrubland | Urban and Built-Up Land |
7 | Cerro Catedral, Edo. Méx. | Shrubland | Evergreen Needleleaf Forest |
8 | Atlacomulco, Edo. Méx. | Shrubland | Cropland |
9 | Nevado de Toluca, Edo. Méx. | Mixed Forest | Evergreen Needleleaf Forest |
10 | Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Mor. | Shrubland | Cropland |
Table 4.
Parameters associated with each type of cover land (see file LANDUSE.TBL of the WRF model). Sum: summer; values from 15 April to 15 October, Win: winter; values from 15 October to 15 April.
Table 4.
Parameters associated with each type of cover land (see file LANDUSE.TBL of the WRF model). Sum: summer; values from 15 April to 15 October, Win: winter; values from 15 October to 15 April.
Land Cover Category | Albedo (%) [ALBEDO] | Roughness Length (m) [SFZ0] | Emissivity (% at 9 µ m) [SFEM] |
---|
Sum | Win | Sum | Win | Sum | Win |
---|
Urban and Built-Up Land | 15 | 15 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 88 | 88 |
Dryland Cropland and Pasture | 17 | 23 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 98.5 | 92 |
Irrigated Cropland and Pasture | 18 | 23 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 98.5 | 92 |
Grassland | 19 | 23 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 98.5 | 92 |
Shrubland | 22 | 25 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 88 | 88 |
Evergreen Needleleaf Forest | 12 | 12 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 95 | 95 |
Mixed Forest | 13 | 14 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 94 | 94 |
Table 5.
Maximum RMSE values reached considering the 10 meteorological stations for the average hourly precipitation during the forecast of 120 h.
Table 5.
Maximum RMSE values reached considering the 10 meteorological stations for the average hourly precipitation during the forecast of 120 h.
| | Hourly Precipitation [mm h−1] |
---|
| | 24-h | 48-h | 72-h | 96-h | 120-h |
---|
July | NALCMS | <1.13 | <1.24 | <1.04 | <0.96 | <0.73 |
USGS | <0.78 | <0.60 | <1.15 | <0.59 | <0.38 |
September | NALCMS | <1.42 | <1.35 | <1.56 | <0.77 | <1.11 |
USGS | <0.77 | <0.41 | <0.52 | <0.79 | <0.84 |