Change-Point Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Extremes in China over the Past 50 Years
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Study Area and Data
2.2. Methods
2.2.1. Thresholds of Precipitation and Drought Extremes
2.2.2. Change-Point Analysis
2.2.3. Cumulative Deviation Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Spatial Distribution of Change-Point Years of Increasing Precipitation Extremes
3.2. Spatial Distribution of Change-Point Years of Increasing Drought Extremes
3.3. Temporal Changes of PE and DE at the Typical Stations of the Regions
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Regions | No. of Stations | Frequency of Precipitation Extreme | Intensity of Precipitation Extreme | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase CPY (%) | Sig. Increase CPY (%) | Increase CPY (%) | Sig. Increase CPY (%) | ||
NE | 98 | 49.0 | 68.8 | 49.0 | 64.6 |
NC | 97 | 43.3 | 54.8 | 43.3 | 52.4 |
SE | 154 | 70.8 | 63.3 | 60.4 | 51.6 |
SW | 56 | 60.7 | 58.8 | 58.9 | 66.7 |
QT | 43 | 69.8 | 53.3 | 60.5 | 61.5 |
NW | 52 | 69.2 | 55.6 | 38.5 | 65.0 |
China | 500 | 59.8 | 60.5 | 52.6 | 58.0 |
Regions | No. of Stations | Frequency of Drought Extreme | Intensity of Drought Extreme | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase CPY (%) | Sig. Increase CPY (%) | Increase CPY (%) | Sig. Increase CPY (%) | ||
NE | 98 | 62.2 | 68.9 | 44.9 | 43.2 |
NC | 97 | 84.5 | 61.0 | 66.0 | 39.1 |
SE | 154 | 87.0 | 72.4 | 81.2 | 68.0 |
SW | 56 | 89.3 | 82.0 | 94.6 | 73.6 |
QT | 43 | 25.6 | 72.7 | 11.6 | 60.0 |
NW | 52 | 40.4 | 28.6 | 32.7 | 52.9 |
China | 500 | 71.8 | 68.0 | 61.6 | 58.4 |
Representative Stations | FPE | IPE | FDE | IDE | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T | CPY | T | CPY | T | CPY | T | CPY | |
Harbin | −2.12 | 1976 | −2.11 | 1979 | −1.26 | 1996 | −1.73 | 1995 |
Urumqi | −3.29 | 1975 | −2.15 | 1977 | −1.00 | 1994 | 1.57 | 1991 |
Zhangye | −1.67 | 1970 | −1.41 | 1982 | −3.18 | 1978 | −1.12 | 1972 |
Baotou | −1.86 | 1991 | −1.25 | 1976 | −2.13 | 1992 | 1.21 | 1975 |
Baoding | 3.32 | 1997 | −2.09 | 1987 | −2.28 | 1996 | −2.19 | 1987 |
Naqu | 2.09 | 1991 | −1.53 | 1982 | 2.40 | 1993 | 1.46 | 1995 |
Kunming | −2.80 | 1996 | −1.18 | 1974 | −3.25 | 1980 | −2.21 | 1979 |
Nanyue | −2.48 | 1993 | −1.00 | 1972 | −2.72 | 1982 | −2.42 | 1974 |
Xiamen | −2.47 | 1983 | −2.00 | 1989 | −2.40 | 1977 | −2.40 | 1990 |
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Liu, M.; Liu, P.; Guo, Y.; Wang, Y.; Geng, X.; Nie, Z.; Yu, Y. Change-Point Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Extremes in China over the Past 50 Years. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 11. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010011
Liu M, Liu P, Guo Y, Wang Y, Geng X, Nie Z, Yu Y. Change-Point Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Extremes in China over the Past 50 Years. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(1):11. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010011
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Min, Pengfei Liu, Ying Guo, Yanfang Wang, Xinxin Geng, Zhenlong Nie, and Yang Yu. 2020. "Change-Point Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Extremes in China over the Past 50 Years" Atmosphere 11, no. 1: 11. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010011