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Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR

Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, UR SPHERES, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Institut Scientifique de Service Public de Wallonie, 200 rue du Chéra, 4000 Liège, Belgium
AGROPTIMIZE, 185 Avenue de Longwy, 6700 Arlon, Belgium
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(6), 321;
Received: 20 May 2019 / Revised: 6 June 2019 / Accepted: 8 June 2019 / Published: 12 June 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Climate Change: Accomplishments and Challenges)
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The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts–Miller–Janjić scheme, the Kain–Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess changes in future precipitation quantities/distributions and associated uncertainties. In a warmer climate (using RCP8.5), our model simulates a small increase of convective precipitation, but lower than the anomalies and the interannual variability over the current climate, since all MAR experiments simulate a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower atmospheric layers, favoring more stable conditions. No change is also projected in extreme precipitation nor in the ratio of convective precipitation. While MAR is more sensitive to the convective scheme when forced by GCMs than when forced by ERA-Interim over the current climate, projected changes from all MAR experiments compare well. View Full-Text
Keywords: precipitation; climate change; regional modeling; convective scheme; Belgium precipitation; climate change; regional modeling; convective scheme; Belgium

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Doutreloup, S.; Kittel, C.; Wyard, C.; Belleflamme, A.; Amory, C.; Erpicum, M.; Fettweis, X. Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 321.

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