Teleconnection of Regional Drought to ENSO, PDO, and AMO: Southern Florida and the Everglades
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Dataset and Study Area
2.1. Rainfall
2.2. ENSO, PDO, and AMO Dataset
3. Methodology
3.1. Correspondence of Regional Rainfall Anomaly to ENSO, AMO, and PDO
3.2. Drought Evaluation with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Pairwise Correspondence Test
4.2. Combined Effects of Drivers on Regional Rainfall Variability
4.3. Implications for Long-Term Freshwater Management
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Quadrant | ENSO | AMO | PDO | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dry | Annual | Dry | Annual | Dry | Annual | |
I | 33 | 36 | 27 | 32 | 27 | 28 |
II | 23 | 21 | 26 | 21 | 28 | 28 |
III | 40 | 34 | 37 | 34 | 35 | 27 |
IV | 14 | 20 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 28 |
Total | 110 | 111 | 110 | 111 | 110 | 111 |
Parameter | ENSO | AMO | PDO | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dry Season | Annual Rainfall | Dry Season | Annual Rainfall | Dry Season | Annual Rainfall | |
n | 110 | 111 | 110 | 111 | 110 | 111 |
h | 73 | 70 | 64 | 66 | 62 | 55 |
n-h | 37 | 41 | 46 | 45 | 48 | 56 |
p | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
F = np = nq | 55.00 | 55.50 | 55.00 | 55.50 | 55.00 | 55.50 |
Computed Chi-square | 5.89 | 3.79 | 1.47 | 1.99 | 0.89 | 0.00 |
Tabular Chi-square | 5.02 | 2.71 | 2.71 | 2.71 | 2.71 | 2.71 |
Significance level | 0.025 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
SPI-Time Window | Independent | Coefficient | Std. Error | t | p | VIF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPI-3 | Constant | −4.84 | 0.93 | −5.23 | <0.001 | |
ENSO | 0.18 | 0.03 | 5.24 | <0.001 | 1.22 | |
PDO | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1.54 | 0.125 | 1.22 | |
AMO | 0.27 | 0.13 | 2.04 | 0.042 | 1 | |
SPI-6 | Constant | −3.86 | 0.92 | −4.18 | <0.001 | |
ENSO | 0.14 | 0.03 | 4.19 | <0.001 | 1.22 | |
PDO | 0.09 | 0.03 | 3.05 | 0.002 | 1.22 | |
AMO | 0.4 | 0.13 | 3.06 | 0.002 | 1 | |
SPI-12 | Constant | −3.77 | 0.93 | −4.08 | <0.001 | |
ENSO | 0.14 | 0.03 | 4.09 | <0.001 | 1.22 | |
PDO | 0.1 | 0.03 | 3.65 | <0.001 | 1.22 | |
AMO | 0.58 | 0.13 | 4.45 | <0.001 | 1 | |
SPI-24 | Constant | −1.91 | 0.94 | −2.04 | 0.042 | |
ENSO | 0.07 | 0.03 | 2.03 | 0.042 | 1.22 | |
PDO | 0.07 | 0.03 | 2.62 | 0.009 | 1.22 | |
AMO | 0.99 | 0.13 | 7.5 | <0.001 | 1 | |
SPI-36 | Constant | 0.16 | 0.94 | 0.18 | 0.861 | |
ENSO | −0.01 | 0.03 | −0.19 | 0.85 | 1.22 | |
PDO | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1.3 | 0.194 | 1.22 | |
AMO | 1.28 | 0.13 | 9.68 | <0.001 | 1 | |
SPI-48 | Constant | −0.85 | 0.92 | −0.93 | 0.353 | |
ENSO | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.92 | 0.359 | 1.22 | |
PDO | −0.01 | 0.03 | −0.41 | 0.684 | 1.22 | |
AMO | 1.56 | 0.13 | 12.02 | <0.001 | 1 | |
SPI-60 | Constant | −0.87 | 0.91 | −0.96 | 0.338 | |
ENSO | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.95 | 0.343 | 1.22 | |
PDO | −0.02 | 0.03 | -0.6 | 0.547 | 1.22 | |
AMO | 1.68 | 0.13 | 13.18 | <0.001 | 1 |
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Abiy, A.Z.; Melesse, A.M.; Abtew, W. Teleconnection of Regional Drought to ENSO, PDO, and AMO: Southern Florida and the Everglades. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 295. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10060295
Abiy AZ, Melesse AM, Abtew W. Teleconnection of Regional Drought to ENSO, PDO, and AMO: Southern Florida and the Everglades. Atmosphere. 2019; 10(6):295. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10060295
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbiy, Anteneh Z., Assefa M. Melesse, and Wossenu Abtew. 2019. "Teleconnection of Regional Drought to ENSO, PDO, and AMO: Southern Florida and the Everglades" Atmosphere 10, no. 6: 295. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10060295