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Variability of Summer Precipitation Events Associated with Tropical Cyclones over Mid-Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Basin: Role of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

1,2, 3,4,*, 2, 5 and 6
1
School of Geosciences, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen 041000, China
2
CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100864, China
3
College of Urban Construction, Heze University, Heze 274000, China
4
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
5
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27607, USA
6
School of Mathematics and Physics, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266061, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(5), 256; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10050256
Received: 29 March 2019 / Revised: 26 April 2019 / Accepted: 30 April 2019 / Published: 9 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Current Developments)
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Abstract

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) track data and gridded observational rainfall data of CN05.1 during the period of 1961 to 2014, we examine the contribution of TCs on three metrics of summertime rainfall regimes and identify the connection between TC-induced precipitation events and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in middle–lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB). At the regional scale, TCs are responsible for approximately 14.4%, 12.5%, and 6.9% of rainfall events for normal, 75th, and 95th percentile precipitation cases, respectively. There is no evidence of significant long-term trends of the three type events linked with TCs, while their interdecadal variability is remarkable. Fractionally, larger proportions of TC-induced events occur along southeast coastal regions of MLYRB for normal rainfall events, and they are recorded over southwest and central-east MLYRB for 95th percentile cases. Moreover, a larger contribution of 95th percentile precipitation events to summer total rainfall is found than that for 75th percentile cases, suggesting that TCs may exert stronger impacts on the upper tail of summertime precipitation distribution across MLYRB. The TC-induced normal rainfall events tend to occur more frequency over central-west MLYRB during negative phase of ENSO in summer. However, the higher likelihood of TC-induced rainfall for three defined metrics are found over the majority of areas over MLYRB during negative ENSO phase in spring. In preceding winter, La Niña episode plays a crucial role in controlling the frequency of both normal and 75th percentile precipitation events. View Full-Text
Keywords: extreme rainfall; tropical cyclone; Poisson regression; El Niño–Southern Oscillation extreme rainfall; tropical cyclone; Poisson regression; El Niño–Southern Oscillation
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Cao, F.; Gao, T.; Dan, L.; Xie, L.; Gong, X. Variability of Summer Precipitation Events Associated with Tropical Cyclones over Mid-Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Basin: Role of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 256.

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