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Open AccessArticle

A Preliminary Impact Study of Wind on Assimilation and Forecast Systems into the One-Dimensional Fog Forecasting Model COBEL-ISBA over Morocco

Direction de la Météorologie Nationale, Casablanca 22000, Morocco
Atmosphere 2019, 10(10), 615; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100615 (registering DOI)
Received: 18 August 2019 / Revised: 8 October 2019 / Accepted: 8 October 2019 / Published: 11 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Observation, Simulation and Predictability of Fog)
The assimilation impact of wind data from aircraft measurements (AMDAR), surface synoptic observations (SYNOP) and 3D numerical weather prediction (NWP) mesoscale model, on short-range numerical weather forecasting (up to 12 h) and on the assimilation system, using the one-dimensional fog forecasting model COBEL-ISBA (Code de Brouillard à l’Échelle Locale-Interactions Soil Biosphere Atmosphere), is studied in the present work. The wind data are extracted at Nouasseur airport, Casablanca, Morocco, over a winter period from the national meteorological database. It is the first time that wind profiles (up to 1300 m) are assimilated in the framework of a single-column model. The impact is assessed by performing NWP experiments with data denial tests, configured to be close to the operational settings. The assimilation system estimates the flow-dependent background covariances for each run of the model and takes the cross-correlations between temperature, humidity and wind components into account. When assimilated into COBEL-ISBA with an hourly update cycle, the wind field has a positive impact on temperature and specific humidity analysis and forecasts accuracy. Thus, a superior fit of the analysis background fields to observations is found when assimilating AMDAR without NWP wind data. The latter has shown a detrimental impact in all experiments. Besides, wind assimilation gave a clear improvement to short-range forecasts of near-surface thermodynamical parameters. Although, assimilation of SYNOP and AMDAR wind measurements slightly improves the probability of detection of fog but also increases the false alarms ratio by a lower magnitude. View Full-Text
Keywords: assimilation; wind; COBEL-ISBA; fog; AMDAR; 1D fog forecast assimilation; wind; COBEL-ISBA; fog; AMDAR; 1D fog forecast
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Bari, D. A Preliminary Impact Study of Wind on Assimilation and Forecast Systems into the One-Dimensional Fog Forecasting Model COBEL-ISBA over Morocco. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 615.

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