Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Ceres-Rice Model
2.2.1. Model Description
2.2.2. Model Input
(a) Climatic Data
(b) Soil Data
(c) Crop Management Options
2.2.3. Model Parameterization
2.2.4. Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Crop
2.2.5. Simulating Adaptive Measures to Increase Rice Yield
2.3. Analysis of Climatic Variables and Rice Yields
3. Results
3.1. Calibration and Validation of Models
3.2. Changes in Climatic Variables Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios
3.3. Impacts of Climate Change on the Growth Stages of the Rice Crop
3.4. Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yields
3.4.1. Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yields without the CO2 Fertilization Effect
3.4.2. Impacts of CO2 Fertilization on Rice Yields
3.4.3. Analysis of the Relationship between the Climatic Variables and Rice Yields
3.5. Adaptive Measures to Increase Rice Yields
3.5.1. Adjusting Planting Dates
3.5.2. Identifying the Optimal Usage of Fertilizers
4. Discussion
4.1. Climate Change Impacts on Rice Yields Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios
4.2. Optimal Management Practices to Increase Rice Yields
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Sit | Color | Drainage | Runoff | Clay (%) | Organic (%) | pH | Exchange (cmol/kg) | Nitrogen (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MX | Brown | Well | Moderately High | 34.2 | 1.79 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.16 |
GY | Yellow | Moderately Well | Moderately High | 18.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 3.1 | 2.11 |
GZ | Red | Moderately Well | Moderately High | 14 | 3.46 | 7.1 | 1 | 0.18 |
SG | Red | Moderately Well | Moderately High | 21.5 | 1.61 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
LZ | Brown | Well | Moderately High | 32.9 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 3.4 | −99 |
XW | Red | Moderately Well | Moderately High | 20.1 | 2.21 | 5.8 | 0.1 | 0.12 |
CZ | Red | Moderately Well | Moderately High | 35 | 2.43 | 7.5 | 1 | 0.11 |
YJ | Red | Well | Moderately High | 14.2 | 2.06 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.12 |
HY | Yellow | Moderately Well | Moderately High | 14 | 1.99 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.09 |
HZ | Red | Moderately Well | Moderately High | 6.7 | 0.89 | 5 | 0.7 | 0.06 |
LF | Red | Moderately Well | Moderately High | 11.5 | 2.51 | 5 | 2.5 | 0.13 |
ZS | Red | Well | Moderately High | 14.2 | 2.06 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.12 |
Site | Cropping | Cultivar | Planting | Emergence | Tillering | Jointing | Booting | Heading | Maturing | Urea (kg) | Compound (kg) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CZ | Early mature | Teyou254 | 2/18 | 2/22 | 4/2 | 5/8 | 5/30 | 6/10 | 7/11 | 25.5 | 60 |
Late mature | Xieyou3550 | 7/18 | 7/22 | 8/14 | 9/10 | 9/22 | 10/2 | 11/10 | 27 | 60 | |
GY | Early mature | Xuehuanian | 3/7 | 3/12 | 4/20 | 5/18 | 6/4 | 6/14 | 7/9 | 10 | 50 |
Late mature | Xuehuanian | 7/6 | 7/10 | 8/18 | 9/6 | 9/16 | 9/30 | 11/4 | 5 | 45 | |
HY | Early mature | Zayou | 3/23 | 3/27 | 5/6 | 5/26 | 6/10 | 6/20 | 7/18 | 1.5 | 35 |
Late mature | Zayou | 7/11 | 7/15 | 8/18 | 9/4 | 9/14 | 9/24 | 10/26 | 42.5 | ||
HZ | Early mature | Qishanzhan | 3/28 | 3/31 | 5/2 | 5/26 | 6/12 | 6/19 | 7/18 | 15 | 85 |
Late mature | Gaozhoubaigu | 7/16 | 7/19 | 8/16 | 9/8 | 9/24 | 10/3 | 10/31 | 50 | 20 | |
LZ | Early mature | Jinyou207 | 3/27 | 3/29 | 5/3 | 5/25 | 6/15 | 6/22 | 7/18 | 40 | 20 |
Late mature | Jinyou253 | 7/5 | 7/7 | 7/29 | 8/21 | 9/14 | 9/20 | 10/25 | 50 | 50 | |
LF | Early mature | YouI402 | 3/12 | 3/19 | 4/20 | 5/27 | 6/17 | 6/22 | 7/28 | 20 | 30 |
Late mature | Yueyou350 | 7/22 | 7/24 | 8/20 | 9/2 | 9/23 | 10/6 | 11/7 | 10 | 30 | |
MX | Early mature | Meiyou6 | 3/8 | 3/10 | 4/24 | 5/18 | 5/28 | 6/4 | 7/8 | 30.5 | 18 |
Late mature | Meiyou6 | 7/17 | 7/19 | 8/14 | 9/8 | 9/18 | 9/26 | 11/4 | 34 | 16 | |
QJ | Early mature | Jufengnian | 3/7 | 3/10 | 4/27 | 5/16 | 6/3 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 16 | 30 |
Late mature | Baikenian | 7/7 | 7/11 | 8/4 | 8/22 | 9/14 | 9/20 | 10/20 | 15 | 45 | |
GZ | Early mature | Meixiangzhan | 3/20 | 3/23 | 5/3 | 5/25 | 6/6 | 6/15 | 7/13 | 20 | 25 |
Late mature | Teshan25 | 7/23 | 7/26 | 8/26 | 9/10 | 9/24 | 10/3 | 11/3 | 25 | 27.5 | |
XW | Early mature | Gaokang999 | 2/26 | 3/2 | 4/24 | 5/10 | 5/30 | 6/7 | 7/6 | 35 | |
Late mature | Boyou15 | 7/19 | 7/22 | 8/28 | 9/20 | 10/4 | 10/12 | 11/10 | 10 | 25 | |
YJ | Early mature | Zayou | 3/21 | 3/24 | 5/3 | 6/2 | 6/14 | 6/23 | 7/19 | 35 | 12 |
Late mature | Zayou | 7/21 | 7/23 | 8/20 | 9/21 | 9/29 | 10/7 | 11/8 | 45 | 30 | |
ZS | Early mature | Tainanzhan | 2/21 | 2/27 | 4/23 | 5/14 | 6/1 | 6/11 | 7/3 | 22 | |
Late mature | Tainanzhan | 7/14 | 7/16 | 8/12 | 9/8 | 9/16 | 9/23 | 10/14 | 50 |
Site | Latitude | Longitude | Cropping | Cultivar | P1 | P2R | P5 | P2O | G1 | G2 | G3 | G4 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CZ | 23.4 | 116.42 | Early mature | Teyou254 | 500.0 | 200.0 | 400.0 | 12.1 | 100.0 | 0.0270 | 0.11 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Xieyou3550 | 550.0 | 250.0 | 400.0 | 12.2 | 120.0 | 0.0270 | 0.11 | 1.00 | |||
GY | 23.02 | 112.27 | Early mature | Xuehuanian | 200.0 | 400.0 | 400.0 | 11.2 | 300.0 | 0.0220 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Xuehuanian | 210.0 | 410.0 | 400.0 | 11.3 | 300.0 | 0.0220 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||
HY | 23.48 | 114.44 | Early mature | Zayou | 400.0 | 400.0 | 600.0 | 11.1 | 300.0 | 0.0110 | 0.55 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Zayou | 400.0 | 400.0 | 500.0 | 11.2 | 300.0 | 0.0110 | 0.55 | 1.00 | |||
HZ | 21.39 | 110.37 | Early mature | Qishanzhan | 400.0 | 300.0 | 400.0 | 12.1 | 200.0 | 0.0240 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Gaozhoubaigu | 410.0 | 320.0 | 400.0 | 12.1 | 200.0 | 0.0240 | 0.44 | 1.00 | |||
LZ | 24.48 | 112.22 | Early mature | Jinyou207 | 100.0 | 300.0 | 500.0 | 12.2 | 500.0 | 0.0220 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Jinyou253 | 110.0 | 320.0 | 310.0 | 12.2 | 500.0 | 0.0220 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||
LF | 22.87 | 115.39 | Early mature | YouI402 | 100.0 | 300.0 | 300.0 | 12.1 | 100.0 | 0.0270 | 0.11 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Yueyou350 | 300.0 | 300.0 | 500.0 | 12.3 | 300.0 | 0.0270 | 0.11 | 1.00 | |||
MX | 24.17 | 116.04 | Early mature | Meiyou6 | 120.0 | 300.0 | 580.0 | 12.2 | 500.0 | 0.0220 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Meiyou6 | 400.0 | 400.0 | 500.0 | 12.2 | 500.0 | 0.0220 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||
QJ | 24.4 | 113.36 | Early mature | Jufengnian | 200.0 | 200.0 | 350.0 | 12.1 | 350.0 | 0.0230 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Baikenian | 300.0 | 300.0 | 500.0 | 12.2 | 500.0 | 0.0220 | 0.66 | 1.00 | |||
GZ | 23.13 | 113.29 | Early mature | Meixiangzhan | 100.0 | 300.0 | 500.0 | 12.3 | 100.0 | 0.0270 | 0.11 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Teshan25 | 120.0 | 320.0 | 500.0 | 12.3 | 100.0 | 0.0280 | 0.11 | 1.00 | |||
XW | 20.2 | 110.11 | Early mature | Gaokang999 | 300.0 | 200.0 | 350. | 12.1 | 350.0 | 0.0230 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Boyou15 | 310.0 | 220.0 | 350.0 | 12.1 | 350.0 | 0.0230 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||
YJ | 21.5 | 111.58 | Early mature | Zayou | 100.0 | 200.0 | 350.0 | 12.1 | 310.0 | 0.0350 | 0.26 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Zayou | 400.0 | 200.0 | 350.0 | 12.1 | 350.0 | 0.0350 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||
ZS | 22.3 | 113.24 | Early mature | Tainanzhan | 500.0 | 200.0 | 350.0 | 13.8 | 300.0 | 0.025 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Late mature | Tainanzhan | 220.0 | 240.0 | 700.0 | 12.1 | 310.0 | 0.035 | 0.26 | 1.00 |
Site | CZ | GY | GZ | HY | HZ | LF | LZ | MX | SG | XW | YJ | ZS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11.9 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 10.8 | |
9.8 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 9.4 | |
11.4 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 14.5 | 11.7 | 10.2 | |
12.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 17.6 | 13.7 | 12.7 | |
16.5 | 15.6 | 15.8 | 16.2 | 18.6 | 17.6 | 14.0 | 15.7 | 14.3 | 20.9 | 17.5 | 17.9 | |
16.3 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 18.6 | 18.2 | 14.8 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 21.4 | 18.1 | 18.1 | |
17.3 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.9 | 16.8 | 19.0 | 15.7 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 20.1 | 19.0 | 17.9 | |
16.8 | 15.7 | 15.9 | 16.4 | 16.3 | 18.7 | 14.9 | 16.6 | 15.0 | 18.8 | 18.6 | 16.9 | |
15.3 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 16.7 | 13.4 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 15.1 | |
14.7 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 15.9 | 14.4 | |
14.4 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 15.1 | 14.6 | |
12.8 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 12.5 | |
18.8 | 17.2 | 18.6 | 18.9 | 19.9 | 19.3 | 13.7 | 17.1 | 15.6 | 21.2 | 19.4 | 18.0 | |
19.0 | 17.5 | 18.9 | 19.1 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 14.3 | 17.6 | 16.1 | 22.8 | 19.9 | 18.3 | |
21.5 | 20.4 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 23.1 | 22.1 | 17.3 | 20.6 | 19.0 | 26.2 | 22.7 | 21.1 | |
24.7 | 24.0 | 25.1 | 25.4 | 26.6 | 25.0 | 21.6 | 24.1 | 23.0 | 29.7 | 25.9 | 24.7 | |
28.7 | 29.3 | 30.4 | 30.0 | 31.9 | 28.8 | 27.3 | 28.4 | 28.6 | 33.4 | 30.1 | 29.2 | |
30.8 | 31.4 | 32.3 | 30.0 | 33.4 | 30.7 | 29.8 | 30.5 | 31.2 | 34.7 | 31.9 | 31.2 | |
31.8 | 31.9 | 32.7 | 32.2 | 33.3 | 31.3 | 30.6 | 31.5 | 32.0 | 34.3 | 32.7 | 31.8 | |
31.9 | 31.5 | 32.3 | 32.2 | 32.7 | 31.6 | 30.0 | 31.4 | 31.5 | 33.4 | 32.8 | 31.6 | |
30.9 | 30.2 | 31.2 | 31.1 | 31.5 | 30.9 | 28.3 | 30.0 | 29.9 | 31.7 | 31.5 | 30.4 | |
28.5 | 27.9 | 29.1 | 28.8 | 29.2 | 28.8 | 25.5 | 27.4 | 27.3 | 29.5 | 29.0 | 27.8 | |
25.4 | 24.2 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 26.6 | 25.8 | 21.5 | 24.1 | 23.2 | 26.9 | 25.5 | 24.6 | |
21.1 | 19.9 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 22.4 | 21.7 | 16.9 | 19.7 | 18.6 | 23.1 | 21.6 | 20.4 | |
11.0 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 15.1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | |
12.7 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 14.8 | 13.7 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 16.2 | 13.6 | 12.9 | |
15.2 | 14.2 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 17.6 | 16.2 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 19.3 | 16.3 | 16.1 | |
18.5 | 17.7 | 18.9 | 18.7 | 20.9 | 19.3 | 14.7 | 16.6 | 16.4 | 22.3 | 19.3 | 19.6 | |
22.4 | 22.0 | 23.2 | 22.7 | 25.2 | 22.9 | 19.4 | 20.3 | 21.0 | 25.4 | 22.9 | 23.5 | |
25.1 | 24.7 | 25.8 | 25.4 | 26.7 | 25.5 | 22.6 | 23.2 | 24.1 | 26.5 | 25.5 | 25.7 | |
25.8 | 25.1 | 26.2 | 25.8 | 26.6 | 26.0 | 23.3 | 24.0 | 24.7 | 26.5 | 26.0 | 26.2 | |
25.4 | 24.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 | 25.9 | 25.7 | 22.4 | 23.4 | 23.7 | 25.8 | 25.5 | 25.7 | |
24.5 | 23.3 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 25.0 | 25.1 | 20.9 | 22.3 | 22.4 | 25.4 | 25.0 | 24.8 | |
21.2 | 19.7 | 21.0 | 21.1 | 22.4 | 22.2 | 16.7 | 18.3 | 18.2 | 23.6 | 22.0 | 22.3 | |
16.5 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 15.8 | 18.4 | 17.5 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 20.2 | 17.4 | 17.9 | |
12.3 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 16.7 | 13.5 | 13.5 | |
6.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | |
16.7 | 18.1 | 17.7 | 16.9 | 17.3 | 16.5 | 18.6 | 17.6 | 18.6 | 14.6 | 16.4 | 16.4 | |
17.8 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 16.3 | 18.2 | 21.3 | 18.7 | 21.1 | 16.6 | 17.8 | 19.7 | |
19.3 | 21.5 | 21.2 | 20.0 | 18.8 | 20.6 | 22.4 | 18.8 | 21.8 | 19.5 | 20.3 | 20.5 | |
23.5 | 23.0 | 22.7 | 22.3 | 24.5 | 25.5 | 22.7 | 20.7 | 21.9 | 26.6 | 24.6 | 27.1 | |
28.1 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 26.9 | 29.7 | 26.7 | 26.2 | 26.5 | 25.8 | 29.3 | 28.5 | |
29.9 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 29.2 | 28.7 | 30.6 | 28.8 | 28.2 | 28.4 | 28.9 | 30.5 | 29.1 | |
30.0 | 29.3 | 29.2 | 28.8 | 30.1 | 30.6 | 29.0 | 27.5 | 29.1 | 28.3 | 30.6 | 30.4 | |
26.0 | 19.8 | 20.1 | 22.4 | 25.9 | 28.4 | 17.5 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 27.6 | 26.4 | 25.8 | |
15.3 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 16.5 | 14.9 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 20.5 | 15.6 | 16.4 | |
7.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 6.0 | |
3.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 6.8 |
Site | CZ | GY | GZ | HY | HZ | LF | LZ | MX | SG | XW | YJ | ZS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13.0 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 12.4 | |
11.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 13.6 | 12 | 11.1 | |
12.7 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 13.9 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 12.7 | |
14.1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 18.2 | 14.1 | 13.2 | |
15.6 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 15.2 | 17.0 | 17.2 | 12.8 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 20.2 | 17.1 | 16.3 | |
15.2 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.1 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 14.3 | 18.9 | 16.7 | 16 | |
18.3 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.8 | 17.0 | 19.9 | 16.6 | 18.1 | 16.8 | 20.0 | 19.9 | 17.5 | |
18.1 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 19.7 | 16.9 | 17.9 | 17.0 | 18.7 | 19.6 | 18.4 | |
16.7 | 16.1 | 16.5 | 16.8 | 16.6 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.0 | 18.1 | 17.6 | |
15.6 | 15.0 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 16.1 | 17.2 | 13.7 | 15.1 | 14.2 | 16.0 | 17.1 | 16.7 | |
14.2 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 14.9 | 15.4 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 14.8 | |
12.9 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 12.4 | |
18.9 | 17.5 | 18.8 | 19.0 | 20.2 | 19.4 | 14.0 | 17.3 | 15.9 | 21.7 | 19.5 | 18.2 | |
20.3 | 19.1 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 21.4 | 20.8 | 15.8 | 18.9 | 17.7 | 24.0 | 21.1 | 19.5 | |
22.2 | 21.2 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.8 | 18.1 | 21.3 | 19.8 | 27.0 | 23.4 | 22 | |
25.4 | 24.8 | 25.9 | 26.2 | 27.5 | 25.7 | 22.4 | 24.9 | 23.8 | 30.5 | 26.6 | 25.4 | |
28.8 | 29.2 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 31.7 | 28.9 | 27.1 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 33.4 | 30.1 | 29.5 | |
30.6 | 31.3 | 32.2 | 31.3 | 33 | 30.7 | 29.6 | 30.2 | 31.0 | 34.1 | 31.8 | 31.1 | |
32.5 | 32.7 | 33.5 | 32.8 | 33.3 | 31.9 | 31.4 | 32.3 | 32.8 | 34.2 | 33.3 | 32.1 | |
33.0 | 33.0 | 33.9 | 33.4 | 33.3 | 32.5 | 31.6 | 32.5 | 33.1 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 32.3 | |
32.0 | 31.8 | 32.8 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 31.9 | 29.9 | 31.1 | 31.5 | 32.5 | 32.6 | 31.4 | |
29.7 | 29.2 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 30.3 | 29.9 | 26.8 | 28.6 | 28.5 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 29 | |
26.2 | 25.4 | 26.7 | 26.4 | 27.4 | 26.7 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 24.4 | 27.4 | 26.4 | 25.3 | |
21.1 | 19.8 | 21.0 | 21.2 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 16.8 | 19.6 | 18.5 | 22.9 | 21.5 | 20.4 | |
10.9 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 15.3 | 11.9 | 11.6 | |
13.5 | 12.7 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 14.4 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 17.5 | 14.4 | 14.1 | |
15.5 | 14.6 | 15.9 | 15.3 | 17.8 | 16.5 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 19.6 | 16.5 | 16.7 | |
19.2 | 18.5 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 20 | 15.5 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 23 | 20 | 20.3 | |
23.2 | 22.9 | 24.1 | 23.4 | 25.3 | 23.7 | 20.3 | 21.1 | 21.9 | 25.8 | 23.7 | 24.1 | |
25.7 | 25.5 | 26.6 | 26.1 | 26.8 | 26.3 | 23.4 | 23.9 | 24.9 | 27.2 | 26.4 | 26.4 | |
26.2 | 25.8 | 26.8 | 26.3 | 26.8 | 26.6 | 24.0 | 24.4 | 25.3 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 26.8 | |
26.1 | 25.2 | 26.4 | 26.0 | 26.3 | 26.4 | 23.3 | 24.1 | 24.6 | 26.5 | 26.2 | 26.3 | |
25.1 | 24.4 | 25.5 | 25.1 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 22.0 | 22.8 | 23.4 | 26 | 25.5 | 25.5 | |
22.2 | 21.1 | 22.5 | 22.2 | 23.3 | 23.1 | 18.1 | 19.3 | 19.6 | 24.3 | 22.9 | 23.1 | |
17.7 | 15.8 | 17.2 | 17.1 | 19.6 | 18.7 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 21.2 | 18.6 | 18.9 | |
12.4 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 16.7 | 13.5 | 13.7 | |
7.6 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | |
15.2 | 17.2 | 16.6 | 15.2 | 16.9 | 15.0 | 17.4 | 15.5 | 17.3 | 15.1 | 14.8 | 14.9 | |
13.8 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 15.1 | 19.9 | 15.4 | 19.5 | 16 | 15 | 17 | |
21.8 | 23.7 | 23.6 | 22.9 | 20.8 | 22.4 | 24.7 | 21.1 | 23.9 | 21.8 | 22.1 | 22.9 | |
25.0 | 25.3 | 24.8 | 23.2 | 26.7 | 27.7 | 24.8 | 21.3 | 24.4 | 27.0 | 27.2 | 28 | |
27.7 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 27.9 | 26.7 | 29.3 | 27.1 | 27.9 | 26.9 | 27.0 | 28.9 | 27.9 | |
29.0 | 28.7 | 28.6 | 28.9 | 30.2 | 30.3 | 28.6 | 26.9 | 28.6 | 29.2 | 30.1 | 29.5 | |
30.2 | 28.8 | 28.8 | 29.2 | 30.0 | 30.6 | 27.7 | 27.8 | 28.0 | 28.1 | 30.6 | 30.2 | |
24.8 | 21.8 | 22.0 | 22.1 | 26.5 | 28.6 | 19.7 | 20.8 | 20.7 | 27.6 | 26.8 | 26.2 | |
16.8 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 18.3 | 15 | 15.7 | |
6.3 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 8.3 | |
4.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
Site | CZ | GY | GZ | HY | HZ | LF | LZ | MX | SG | XW | YJ | ZS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12.8 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 11.9 | |
11.1 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 10.2 | |
12.5 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 11.8 | |
14.6 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 14 | 15.7 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 17.9 | 15.3 | 13.9 | |
15.5 | 15.4 | 15.6 | 15.3 | 17.4 | 16.9 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 14.1 | 20.8 | 16.8 | 16.4 | |
15.9 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.6 | 16.9 | 17.8 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 20.4 | 17.7 | 17.0 | |
20.2 | 19.7 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 19.2 | 21.9 | 18.6 | 19.9 | 18.9 | 21.7 | 21.9 | 20.3 | |
16.6 | 16.7 | 16.9 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 18.1 | 15.9 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 18.8 | 18.0 | 17.2 | |
16.1 | 15.8 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.5 | 18.1 | 14.8 | 15.7 | 14.9 | 17.6 | 18.0 | 16.9 | |
15.3 | 15.3 | 15.7 | 15.6 | 16.1 | 17.0 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 15.8 | 16.8 | 16.0 | |
14.5 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 15.2 | 14.4 | |
12.7 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 11.7 | |
19.2 | 17.6 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 20.5 | 19.7 | 14.1 | 17.5 | 16.0 | 21.8 | 19.8 | 18.4 | |
20.2 | 18.7 | 20.0 | 20.2 | 21.4 | 20.7 | 15.4 | 18.8 | 17.3 | 23.8 | 21.0 | 19.3 | |
22.5 | 21.5 | 22.7 | 22.9 | 24.1 | 23.1 | 18.5 | 21.6 | 20.2 | 27.2 | 23.7 | 22.3 | |
26.0 | 25.5 | 26.6 | 26.7 | 28.1 | 26.2 | 23.1 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 30.6 | 27.1 | 26.0 | |
29.5 | 29.9 | 31.0 | 30.6 | 32.3 | 29.6 | 27.9 | 29.1 | 29.2 | 34.3 | 30.7 | 30.1 | |
31.4 | 31.9 | 32.9 | 32.1 | 33.9 | 31.4 | 30.3 | 31.0 | 31.7 | 35.3 | 32.5 | 31.9 | |
33.5 | 34.0 | 34.8 | 33.9 | 34.7 | 32.9 | 32.7 | 33.3 | 34.1 | 35.2 | 34.4 | 33.2 | |
33.3 | 33.4 | 34.3 | 33.7 | 34.2 | 32.9 | 32.0 | 32.8 | 33.4 | 34.4 | 34.0 | 32.7 | |
32.5 | 32.0 | 33.0 | 32.8 | 33.1 | 32.5 | 30.1 | 31.5 | 31.7 | 33.3 | 33.1 | 32.1 | |
30.1 | 29.5 | 30.7 | 30.5 | 31.0 | 30.4 | 27.1 | 29.0 | 28.9 | 30.8 | 30.5 | 29.4 | |
26.5 | 25.7 | 26.9 | 26.7 | 27.7 | 27.0 | 22.9 | 25.2 | 24.7 | 27.5 | 26.7 | 25.6 | |
21.4 | 20.2 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 22.9 | 22.0 | 17.2 | 20.0 | 18.9 | 23.4 | 21.9 | 20.9 | |
11.1 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 15.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | |
13.7 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 15.9 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 17.6 | 14.6 | 14.2 | |
16.1 | 15.3 | 16.5 | 16.0 | 18.6 | 17.1 | 11.9 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 20.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | |
19.5 | 18.9 | 20.1 | 19.7 | 22.2 | 20.2 | 15.9 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 23.4 | 20.2 | 20.7 | |
23.7 | 23.0 | 24.2 | 23.9 | 26.0 | 24.1 | 20.4 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 26.2 | 24.2 | 24.5 | |
26.1 | 25.8 | 26.9 | 26.4 | 27.7 | 26.6 | 23.7 | 24.3 | 25.2 | 27.7 | 26.6 | 26.9 | |
26.5 | 25.8 | 26.9 | 26.5 | 27.7 | 26.8 | 24.0 | 24.6 | 25.3 | 27.3 | 26.6 | 27.2 | |
26.8 | 25.9 | 27.0 | 26.7 | 27.3 | 26.9 | 23.9 | 24.8 | 25.3 | 27.1 | 26.8 | 26.9 | |
25.5 | 24.7 | 25.9 | 25.5 | 26.1 | 26.0 | 22.3 | 23.2 | 23.7 | 26.3 | 25.8 | 25.8 | |
22.4 | 21.1 | 22.5 | 22.2 | 23.7 | 23.2 | 18.1 | 19.4 | 19.6 | 24.7 | 23.0 | 23.3 | |
17.6 | 16.0 | 17.4 | 17.1 | 19.9 | 18.7 | 12.5 | 14.0 | 14.1 | 21.2 | 18.5 | 19.0 | |
12.7 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 15.4 | 13.8 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 17.1 | 13.8 | 14.0 | |
6.4 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | |
13.1 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 14.4 | 16.6 | 13.7 | 16.4 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 15.0 | |
14.7 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 17.3 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 20.2 | 16.8 | 19.9 | 16.2 | 15.3 | 16.8 | |
19.1 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 20.4 | 19.6 | 18.0 | 22.9 | 18.1 | 21.9 | 19.9 | 17.7 | 19.1 | |
25.5 | 24.5 | 24.3 | 23.3 | 25.7 | 27.5 | 24.3 | 22.1 | 24.0 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.1 | |
27.6 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 27.7 | 26.6 | 29.2 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 28.5 | 28.7 | |
27.9 | 27.1 | 27.0 | 26.6 | 27.6 | 29.8 | 26.9 | 24.0 | 27 | 27.5 | 29.3 | 28.2 | |
29.7 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 29.0 | 29.6 | 30.1 | 27.6 | 27.3 | 27.8 | 29.9 | 30.0 | 30.3 | |
23.9 | 18.0 | 18 | 20.2 | 24.4 | 25.8 | 15.7 | 19.6 | 16.7 | 27.8 | 23.9 | 24.7 | |
14.6 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 16.9 | 14.7 | 15.0 | |
6.4 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 | |
5.3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 6.8 |
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GCM | Publishing Institute | Horizontal Resolution | Ensemble Members | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006–2015 | 2106–2115 (+ 1.5 °C) | 2106–2115 (+ 2.0 °C) | |||
ECHAM6-3-LR | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Deutsche Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, Germany | 2.813 × 2.791° | 20 | 20 | 20 |
NorESM1-HAPPI | NorESM (Norwegian Earth System Model) climate modeling consortium | 1.250 × 0.940° | 20 | 20 | 20 |
CAM4-2degree | ETH, Zurich, Switzerland | 2.000 × 2.000° | 20 | 20 | 20 |
MIROC5 | Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan | 2.813 × 2.791° | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Warming Scenario | (°C) | (°C) | (mm) | (h) | CO2 (ppm) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.5 °C | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.20 | 0.62 | 423.4 |
2.0 °C | 1.11 | 0.97 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 486.6 |
Names | a | b | c | d |
---|---|---|---|---|
1.5 °C_early mature rice | −1647.591 | 10285.218 | −7357.137 | −6962.957 |
1.5 °C_late mature rice | −5466.918 | 3389.475 | 2751.96 | −8846.68 |
2.0 °C_early mature rice | −1900.734 | 2350.255 | 2070.157 | −700.124 |
2.0 °C_late mature rice | −2840.214 | 14750.812 | −12510.515 | −2060.577 |
Warming Scenario | PCC | RY | SR | TM | TN | P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.5 °C_early mature rice | RY | 1 | 0.057 | 0.064 | 0.037 | −0.697 |
SR | 0.057 | 1 | 0.997 | 0.997 | 0.108 | |
TM | 0.064 | 0.997 | 1 | 0.998 | 0.116 | |
TN | 0.037 | 0.997 | 0.998 | 1 | 0.124 | |
P | −0.697 | 0.108 | 0.116 | 0.124 | 1 | |
1.5 °C_late mature rice | RY | 1 | −0.327 | −0.315 | −0.318 | −0.718 |
SR | −0.327 | 1 | 0.997 | 0.997 | 0.108 | |
TM | −0.315 | 0.997 | 1 | 0.998 | 0.116 | |
TN | −0.318 | 0.997 | 0.998 | 1 | 0.124 | |
P | −0.718 | 0.108 | 0.116 | 0.124 | 1 | |
2.0 °C_early mature rice | RY | 1 | 0.099 | 0.19 | 0.261 | −0.054 |
SR | 0.099 | 1 | 0.865 | 0.399 | −0.225 | |
TM | 0.19 | 0.865 | 1 | 0.552 | −0.009 | |
TN | 0.261 | 0.399 | 0.552 | 1 | 0.276 | |
P | −0.054 | −0.225 | −0.009 | 0.276 | 1 | |
2.0 °C_late mature rice | RY | 1 | 0.287 | 0.283 | −0.262 | −0.318 |
SR | 0.287 | 1 | 0.865 | 0.399 | −0.225 | |
TM | 0.283 | 0.865 | 1 | 0.552 | −0.009 | |
TN | −0.262 | 0.399 | 0.552 | 1 | 0.276 | |
P | −0.318 | −0.225 | −0.09 | 0.276 | 1 |
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Guo, Y.; Wu, W.; Du, M.; Liu, X.; Wang, J.; Bryant, C.R. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 567. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100567
Guo Y, Wu W, Du M, Liu X, Wang J, Bryant CR. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China. Atmosphere. 2019; 10(10):567. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100567
Chicago/Turabian StyleGuo, Yahui, Wenxiang Wu, Mingzhu Du, Xiaoxuan Liu, Jingzhe Wang, and Christopher Robin Bryant. 2019. "Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China" Atmosphere 10, no. 10: 567. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100567