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Open AccessArticle

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China

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Academician workstation of Zhai Mingguo, University of Sanya, Sanya 572000, China
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Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China
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Guangdong Key Laboratory of Integrated Agro-environmental Pollution Control and Management, Guangdong Institute of Eco-environmental Science & Technology, Guangzhou 510650, China
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School of Environmental Design and Rural Development, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G2W5, Canada
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Géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréa, QC H2V2B8, Canada
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(10), 567; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100567
Received: 11 July 2019 / Revised: 13 September 2019 / Accepted: 19 September 2019 / Published: 21 September 2019
In this study, the potential climate change impacts on rice growth and rice yield under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, are simulated using the Ceres-Rice Model based on high-quality, agricultural, experimental, meteorological and soil data, and the incorporation of future climate data generated by four Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Pearl River Delta, China. The climatic data is extracted from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) namely: The Community Atmosphere Model 4 (CAM4), The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg 6 (ECHAM6), Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate 5 (MIROC5) and the Norwegian Earth System Model 1 (NorESM1). The modeling results show that climate change has major negative impacts on both rice growth and rice yields at all study sites. More specifically, the average of flowering durations decreases by 2.8 days (3.9 days), and the maturity date decreases by 11.0 days (14.7 days) under the 1.5 °C and (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. The yield for early mature rice and late mature rice are reduced by 292.5 kg/ha (558.9 kg/ha) and 151.8 kg/ha (380.0 kg/ha) under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. Adjusting the planting dates of eight days later and 15 days earlier for early mature rice and late mature rice are simulated to be adaptively effective, respectively. The simulated optimum fertilizer amount is about 240 kg/ha, with different industrial fertilizer and organic matter being applied. View Full-Text
Keywords: adaptive measures; climatic change; CO2 fertilization effect; Guangdong Province; Ceres-Rice Model; rice production adaptive measures; climatic change; CO2 fertilization effect; Guangdong Province; Ceres-Rice Model; rice production
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Guo, Y.; Wu, W.; Du, M.; Liu, X.; Wang, J.; Bryant, C.R. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 567.

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