Reverse Agroclimatology: Growing Degree Days at Actual Olive Grove and Vineyard Locations Across Europe

Climate change is progressively altering the thermal environment of European agriculture, with direct consequences for high-value perennial crops such as olive (Olea europaea L.) and grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.). Although the Growing Degree Days (GDD) index is widely applied to characterize crop thermal requirements, no systematic evidence exists on the actual GDD values accumulated at the locations where these crops are currently grown across Europe. This study introduces a “reverse agroclimatology” approach that anchors GDD calculations exclusively to olive grove and vineyard areas identified in the Corine Land Cover (CLC) dataset for five reference years (1990, 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018), using ERA5-Land reanalysis daily temperature data as the climatological input. For each CLC reference year, GDD was computed for olive cultivation (T_base = 7 °C, January–May) and viticulture (T_base = 10 °C, April–October) exclusively over registered cultivation pixels, and per-country means were subjected to linear regression trend analysis (p < 0.05). For olive cultivation across 11 Mediterranean countries, statistically significant positive GDD trends were detected in 7 countries, with long-term (1985–2023) country means ranging from 476.2 GDD in France to 1214.3 in Cyprus, indicating that we can revise the known GDD thresholds. The first appearance of olive cultivation in Slovenia’s 2012 CLC dataset, with a median of 546.5 GDD, provides land use-mapped evidence of a spatial displacement of cultivation boundaries. For vineyard cultivation across 22 European countries, significant positive trends were identified in 18 countries, with warming rates reaching 19.25 GDD yr⁻¹ in Turkey, 15.83 GDD yr⁻¹ in Albania, and 14.89 GDD yr⁻¹ in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mediterranean and Balkan vineyards already exceed the classical 2000 GDD threshold of viticultural suitability across all reference years. In contrast, central and northern European registered vineyards operate below it, though their warmest sites are increasingly approaching or crossing it in the most recent periods. The cultivation-anchored GDD framework, built on openly available data and a fully reproducible R-based pipeline, provides a practical and updatable tool for monitoring the evolving thermal conditions of European olive and wine production under ongoing climate change.