Spatio-Temporal Variations in Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Different Erosion Zones of Cultivated Land in Northeast China Under Future Climate Change Conditions

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and serves as a sensitive indicator of climate change impacts, with its dynamics significantly influencing regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study focuses on the Songnen Plain in Northeast China—a key black soil agricultural region increasingly affected by water erosion, primarily through surface runoff and rill formation on gently sloping cultivated land. We aim to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of SOC stocks across different cultivated land erosion zones under projected future climate change scenarios. To quantify current and future SOC stocks, we applied a boosted regression tree (BRT) model based on 130 topsoil samples (0–30 cm) and eight environmental variables representing topographic and climatic conditions. The model demonstrated strong predictive performance through 10-fold cross-validation, yielding high R² and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (LCCC) values, as well as low mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Key drivers of SOC stock spatial variation were identified as mean annual temperature, elevation, and slope aspect. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we projected SOC stocks under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2090s. Results indicate a decline of 177.66 Tg C (SSP245) and 186.44 Tg C (SSP585) by the 2050s relative to 2023 levels. By the 2090s, SOC losses under SSP245 and SSP585 are projected to reach 2.84% and 1.41%, respectively, highlighting divergent carbon dynamics under varying emission pathways. Spatially, SOC stocks were predominantly located in areas of slight (67%) and light (22%) water erosion, underscoring the linkage between erosion intensity and carbon distribution. This study underscores the importance of incorporating both climate and anthropogenic influences in SOC assessments. The resulting high-resolution SOC distribution map provides a scientific basis for targeted ecological restoration, black soil conservation, and sustainable land management in the Songnen Plain, thereby supporting regional climate resilience and China’s “dual carbon” goals. These insights also contribute to global efforts in enhancing soil carbon sequestration and achieving carbon neutrality goals.