3.2.1. The System Dynamics
During any production process, the optimal capacity expansion/contraction (hereaftercalled management) of a facility that produces goods or performs services over an N-year planning horizon refers to System Dynamics, wherein the production or service capacity, control or decision, random demand for produce, and addition or removal of capacity plays a very significant role [
15]. Any change in these factors may create a difference in the optimum production level. Again, the most prominent factors from the above are the demand augmentation and the reduction in capacity, whichcan affect production.
As far as the tea industry of Tripura is concerned, the domestic demand for tea has not appreciably increasedover the last thirty years, and, only recently, has the contribution of the Tripura tea industry to the state’s economy begun to thrive. Secondly, the industry has been relying on traditional tea growing skills and is currently undergoinga shift in farming practices; the industry has been undergoing significant changes by modernizing the practice of leaf processing. Further, environmental, social, policy, and market transitions have brought new risks, and have greatly affected the industry. While talking to experts on the tea estates, employee associations, and with the help of an extant literature review, four major areas of risk have been catalogued and categorized that pertain to our primary research on tea cultivators and worker communities.
Given that tea is a rain-fed perennial crop, its cultivation is subject to various types of natural and environmental risks of varying intensities. These risks often cause significant production upheavals. Some of these natural and environmental risks have been explored in detail below.
Climate change has affected rainfall patterns, decreased the seasonal mean rainfall, and has increased extreme rainfall events in some places, such as 24-h rainfall events in some parts of the country [
16]. Today, the tea industry’s major natural hazards are rising temperatures, erratic patterns of rainfall with periods of flooding—followed by periods of extreme drought—and the resultant changes in pest patterns.
From the mid-1990s, Tripura recorded an increase in temperature of 1.3 °C. Initially, the annual and maximum seasonal temperatures have been considerably above the ideal temperature range of 18 °C to 30 °C [
17]; however, a steady increase in the average minimum temperature crossing 30 °C was recorded from 1995 onwards [
18]. Studies found that temperature changes had no direct adverse impact on tea production, depicting some degree of self-adaptation to temperature changes. In a report published by the Tea Research Association (TRA), Ethical Tea Partnership (ETP) [
19], and Tata Global Beverages, the authors state that tea production could potentially move towards cooler climates and higher altitudes [
20]. A probable decline in tea production by up to 40% by 2050 due to climate change in northeast India has been depicted by the Tea and Climate research collaboration between the University of Southampton and TRA, indicating the need for mitigation strategies to prevent such a scenario.
- b.
Extreme Rainfall Patterns
Unpredictable and extreme rainfall patterns distort production patterns [
18] and have significantly shortened cultivation periods from nine months to just seven months [
21]. Past literature has also cited soil erosion and water logging during times of excessive rainfall, and improper drainage systems often result in the rotting of the roots of tea plants. This has resulted in a demand for subsidized irrigation schemes from the state government. Studies have indicated that drip irrigation is the most suitable and least expensive irrigation method for tea estates [
18].
- 2
Market Risks
The tea industry has faced several external market risks that have obstructed the financial growth of the industry in the long run. As a result, profits have been reduced, thereby narrowing the growers’ capacities to practice strategies that would increase worker benefits independently [
22]. In addition, the Tripura tea industry always had a problem with auctioning tea as there was no auction center in the state. Interestingly, as the then ruler of the state, Maharaja Birendra Kishore Manikya, had a policy of not allowing British planters to buy land in his state, the tea gardens of Tripura were pioneered by Indian tea entrepreneurs [
5]. Currently, the growers here depend on far away auction centers in Guwahati and Kolkata to sell their produce at an increasing cost. Before the 1965 war with Pakistan, the Chittagong auction center was used to export tea to neighboring nations. The war and subsequent rift in trade ties disrupted this arrangement. Thus, deliberately, the state faced the hurdle of sending the produce to the country’s main markets or exporting tea abroad without a tea auction center.
- b.
Law, Policy and Regulation
The largest portion of tea estate costs includes the labor wages and benefits. If productivity and profits decline, it directly and seriously affects the wages of the estate owners [
18]; however, the Plantation Labor Act (PLA) of 1951 [
23] empowers the state government to take feasible steps to improve the welfare of labor and to regulate the conditions of workers on plantations, but it only applies to large tea estates and not small tea growers.
The PLA directs the state governments to standardize and improve worker welfare by modifying the terms of employment, wages, and living standards. Conversely, since workers are unaware of their legal rights, the prospects of the Act remain unused [
24]. Currently, to check the prevailing situation, tea unions, associations, and bodies have joined with the policy framework of PLA to define land labor ratios. Regardless of market conditions, estates have to observe these guidelines, which were determined through a process of collective bargaining. Recently, the cash component of total wages has undergone significant revisions, resulting in growth in market prices.
Alternatives like ready-to-drink teas and other alternative beverages are shrinking the consumer base of tea in Tripura, thereby severely impacting education, sanitation, and health among the tea grower’s community. There is significant regulation around educational facilities for tea garden communities, but these regulations are poorly enforced. As per the PLA guidelines, 25 workers or more is the criteria for providing primary school facilities to children between 6 and 12 years old. These rules also stipulate that the student ratio cannot exceed 40:1.Though, these rules are reinforced in the Tripura Plantation Labour Rules 1954, the present educational development indices among the workers’ children do not reveal that. A study has shown that early marriage, nutritional deficiency, inadequate sanitation, and poor income are basic impediments to a better socioeconomic life among the tea growers [
25].
The above discussed external changes, such as the natural and environmental risks; market risks due to the absence of auction centers within the state;and stagnant auction prices, law, policy, and regulation;as well as continuous price increases accompanied by system dynamics, heavy dependence on labor, lack of alternative jobs, etc., affect the human and community development of the tea growers.
3.2.2. The Economics of Production
The process of transforming inputs into finished products that can be sold as a good or service is called production. Production of any goods and services requires factors such as land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship. These factors facilitate the production process in stages to reach the hands of consumers.
First, “Land” refers to all the natural resources that can be found on the land. Considering the tea industry in the state, land is abundant. Secondly, the attempt or effort that individuals apply while producing a good or service refers to “Labor”. More than 14,000 workers and employees are engaged in this industry, which comprises small and big tea growers. Thirdly, “Capital”, or capital goods, refers to the cash for procuring the inputs that are required for the production of goods and services. For example, the machinery and equipment used for the processing of tea are industry capital goods and are available for the production of tea.
Fourthly, “Entrepreneurship” involves innovative ideas and putting these ideas into action by planning and organizing production. Entrepreneurs take up the risk of the business and identify the potentialities, and the income from the business is the profit. The tea industry has been suffering due to a lack of entrepreneurship. The major issues responsible for the poor performance of the tea industry have been identified as being due to a sluggish increase in productivity, slow growth of area under tea cultivation, low domestic demand, lack of capability to compete with major tea exporting states, loss of the traditional tea market, and lack of competition due to more attraction towards the domestic market compared to the international market.
Tripura is a landlocked state with an 85% common boundary with Bangladesh [
26]. The surface connectivity has been almost nil since 2015; moreover, the industry, since its inception, has been subjected to militancy and, eventually, when insurgency in the state came to a standstill, the industry plummeted with chit fund issues and the result was poor production.
Only recently, from 2018–2019 onwards, the newly formed government in the state has been expediting the avenues for revival of the oldest surviving industry in the state. The government, through the Tripura Tea Development Corporation (TTDC), has started taking steps towards building the capabilities needed to bundle, manage, and otherwise exploit resources in a manner that provides added value for the customer and creates an advantage over the competition. The resource-based theory also states that strategic resources can provide a foundation for developing firm capabilities that can lead to a superior performance overtime [
27].Thus, keeping the valuable, inimitable, and non-substitutable resources such as land, labour, and capital in their best position can earn the firm long-term success and maximize its value for its stakeholders; to this end, strategies such as the promotion of state tea, introduction of a logo, brand identification, distribution, demand fulfillment, and selling activities were adopted by the TTDC to turn the loss-making industry into a profit-making industry.
Again, Freeman’s stakeholder’s theory stresses the interconnected relationships in business with its stakeholders, including the customers, suppliers, employees, investors, communities, and others who have a stake in the organization [
28]. The theory argues that a firm should create value for all stakeholders and not just the shareholders. With newer production and promotional strategies, the TTDC not only aims to earn firm success, but as the stakeholder’s theory suggests, it also tries to benefit all its stakeholders in the industry for sustainable and long-term success.