A Systematic Review of Using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Smart Policing
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Background
3. Methodology
3.1. Research Questions
- RQ1: What methods in ML and NLP have been proposed to process crime data and predictive policing?
- RQ2: What are the strengths and limitations of the current proposed methods, and how can they be addressed?
3.2. Research Process
- IC1: Provides/lists the ML methods or frameworks used in smart policing;
- IC2: States the challenges of using AI in smart policing and how to address them.
4. Findings
4.1. Addressing RQ1
4.1.1. Mapping Techniques
4.1.2. Machine Learning
Reference | ML Algorithm | Description | Result |
---|---|---|---|
[50] | K-means | The resulting clusters plotted on a geospatial plot show the possible crime patterns | |
[51] | KNN, RF, SVM, NB, CNN, long short-term memory (LSTM) | Presents a comprehensive comparison of ML algorithms for crime hotspot prediction based on historical data of a large city in Southeast China from 2015 to 2018; they also used built environment data such as road network density and points of interest | LSTM performed better than other models as it extracted the patterns and regularity from historical crime data more accurately; built environment data improved the performance as well |
[52] | LR, DT, RF, multilayer perceptron (MLP), NB, SVM, XGBoost, KNN, LSTM, ARIMA | Performs a comparison between ML algorithms to predict crime hotspots based on historical data and time-series analysis in Chicago and Los Angeles | XGBoost performed better than other algorithms, with 94% and 88% accuracy on the two datasets. LSTM classified crime over different periods, showing that Chicago’s crime rate had more variations compared with Los Angeles. The ARIMA model was implemented to analyze the five-year trends of crime rates and hotspots, suggesting moderate variations for Chicago and a decline for Los Angeles |
[53] | ARIMA, smoothing exponential methods with SES and HES | An ARIMA time-series model is employed to perform short-term property crime prediction for a city in China based on 50 weeks of property crime data and compared with SES and HES methods | The ARIMA model has higher fitting and prediction accuracy than exponential smoothing |
[54] | K-means and NB | Proposed a predictive policing system model focusing on street crime in the Karachi region. | The busiest parts of the cities have the highest rates of crime |
[55] | NB and backpropagation (BP) neural network | Explores classification techniques to predict crime categories based on crime datasets collected from socioeconomic and law enforcement data of various states in the USA | NB outperformed the BP algorithm, achieving an accuracy of 90.22% for one group and 94.08% for another |
[56] | Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and KNN | Introduces a new model for crime hotspot prediction that incorporates area-specific heat levels, temporal distances of holidays, and neighborhood attributes to create spatiotemporal characteristics; LDA is used for dimensionality reduction, and KNN is used for prediction | The proposed model performs optimally when analyzing weekly crime statistics |
[57] | LASSO feature selection with naïve Bayes and ARIMA model | Proposes a model to predict future crime occurrences at a future time and predict which type of crime may be happening in a given area; it also analyzes crime features including date, time, and geographical factors like latitude and longitude, and employs LASSO feature selection and classification models such as naïve Bayes and SVM to extract insights from the data | The proposed model outperforms SVM, KDE, and deep neural networks in terms of accuracy; however, SVM has the best precision value |
[58] | Negative binomial, Poisson regression, and regression models | Crime data of Salinas, California, USA | All three models have similar performance |
[59] | SVM, multilayer neural network, LR | Conducts research on how SVM can provide a framework to predict the probability of reincarceration and preforms a comparison among SVM, LR, and neural networks based on a recidivism dataset | SVM can be a reliable method for recidivism prediction, but a combined prediction utilizing all three methods obtains the most flexibility, with enhanced accuracy and effectiveness of crime forecasting |
[60] | DT, NB | Predicting crime categories in different states of the USA | DT outperformed NB |
[61] | DT J48, NB, SVM, multilayer perceptron | Predicting crime categories | DT outperformed other algorithms |
[62] | DT J48 | Suggests a crime prediction prototype model using a decision tree (J48) based on the UCI dataset of “Crime and Communities” | Experimental results indicate that the J48 algorithm achieves an accuracy of 94.25% in predicting crime categories |
[63] | DT, NB | Suggests crime category prediction in specific geographical areas using ML algorithms based on historical incident data sourced from the Chicago Police Department’s CLEAR system; both algorithms were applied to the top 9 selected features from the dataset | DT outperformed the NB algorithm in terms of predictive accuracy |
[64] | Neural network, NB, RF | Predicting future drug-related crime hotspots | Neural network has a better performance |
[45] | NB, DT | Extract rules for classification and prediction of crime and criminality | NB is more reliable |
[65] | Linear regression, additive regression, and decision stump | Presents a comparison between the violent crime patterns from the Communities and Crime Dataset provided by the University of California—Irvine repository and actual crime statistical data for the state of Mississippi that were provided by neighborhoodscout.com | Linear regression performs the best |
[66] | RF | Long-term crime forecasts for robberies in Dallas in 200 by 200 foot grid cells that allow spatially varying associations of crime generators and demographic factors | RF outperforms risk terrain models and kernel density estimation in terms of forecasting future crimes using different measures of predictive accuracy, but it only slightly outperforms using prior counts of crime |
[67] | SVM, KDE, deep neural network (DNN) | Introduces a feature-level data fusion method with environmental context based on a deep neural network that consists of spatial, temporal, environmental context, and joint feature representation layers | Evaluated the performance of SVM, KDE, and their proposed method using accuracy, precision, recall, and area under the curve (AUC). Their DNN-based multimodal data fusion method is a more appropriate method for predicting crime occurrence. The limitation of this model is that it will not work when sufficient data are not provided |
[68] | Simple logistic, LR, NB, Bayes net, SVM, DT with C4.5, MLP | Examines the machine learning algorithms and data mining tools in crime analysis in the process of crime prediction and prevention | DT showed promising results, with an accuracy rate of 76% |
[69] | Feedforward network, CNN, RNN, recurrent convolutional network | Uses neural network techniques and combines RNN and CNN to predict crime types on different datasets | Evaluated the performance of neural networks, with the following results: feedforward with 71.3% accuracy, CNN with 72.7%, and RNN with 74.1%, and the combination of CNN and RNN with 75.6%. |
[70] | Apriori, NB, DT | Applied Apriori to detect frequent crime patterns and NB, and DT to predict the potential crime types | Achieved a prediction accuracy rate of 51% on Denver’s crime dataset and 54% on Los Angeles’ dataset, and provided an analysis study based on the results for each city |
[71] | SVM, NB, KNN | The authors apply ML algorithms to identify hate speech in the context of spiritual belief, emphasizing the importance of monitoring cybercrimes | SVM outperforms NB and KNN in terms of F-score, precision, and recall for sentiment classification and religion classification |
[72] | DNN, CNN, RNN | Proposes an intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle system that relies on deep learning algorithms to analyze video data and detect suspicious criminal activities | No performance evaluation is provided; some improvements are suggested for future work, such as battery power and using surveillance-specific algorithms |
Reference | Dataset | No. of Instances | No. of Attributes | Algorithm/Technique | Accuracy (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[52] | Los Angeles criminal records (2010–2018) [96] | 2.6 million | 17 | Logistic regression DT RF MLP NB SVM XGBOOST KNN | 48 60 43 84 71 60 88 89 |
[52] | Chicago criminal records (2001–November 2019) through the city of Chicago’s data portal website [97] | 7 million | 22 | Logistic regression DT RF MLP NB SVM XGBOOST KNN | 90 66 77 87 73 66 94 88 |
[55] | Communities and Crime from the UCI Machine Learning Repository [98]: Group 1, which is classified based on race | 2000 | 128 in total, but only 4 were selected for this study to obtain optimal results | NB BP | 90.22 94.08 |
[55] | Communities and Crime from the UCI Machine Learning Repository [98]: Group 2, which is classified based on marital status | 2000 | 128 in total, but only 4 were selected for this study to obtain optimal results | NB BP | 65.94 65.94 |
[57] | Chicago crime records through the city of Chicago’s data portal website [97] | 6,480,461 | - | SVM KDE Deep neural network LFSNBC | 67.01 66.33 84.25 97.47 |
[59] | Data1978 | 4618 (9327 in total, but 4709 instances were excluded due to missing information) | - | LR SVM Neural network | - |
[59] | Data1980 | 5739 (9549 in total, but 3810 instances were excluded due to missing information) | - | LR SVM Neural network | - |
[60] | Communities and Crime from the UCI Machine Learning Repository [98] | 1994 | 128 | DT NB | 83.9519 70.8124 |
[61] | Communities and Crime from the UCI Machine Learning Repository [98] | 1994 | 128 | DT J48 NB MLP SVM | 100 89.6104 100 92.2078 |
[62] | Communities and Crime from the UCI Machine Learning Repository [98] | 1994 | 12 | DT J48 | 94.2528 |
[63] | Chicago incident reports from 2013 to 2017 [99] | 12,109 | 18 | NB DT | 83.33 91.59 |
[65] | Communities and Crime Unnormalized Dataset | 2215 | 147 in total (4 non-predictive features, 125 predictive features, and 18 potential goal features), but 9 attributes related to violent crimes were selected for this study | Linear regressionAdditive regressionDecision stump | Not defined |
[65] | Mississippi 2013 Crime Dataset [100] | 89,714 recorded crimes, but 8214 records were selected for this study | - | Linear regressionAdditive regressionDecision stump | Not defined |
[66] | Crime data related to robberies reported from incident-level data and geocoded to the address level on the Dallas Open Data portal [101] | 12,613 | - | RFKDECounting prior crimes Risk terrain modeling | - |
[67] | Chicago crime records for 2014 through the city of Chicago’s data portal website [97], American Community Survey data, weather data from Weather Underground [102], and environmental context information from image data using Google Street View [103] | 274,064 crime cases from Chicago crime records, 801 census tracts from the American Community Survey | - | SVM KDE Deep neural network | 67.01 66.33 84.25 |
[69] | Chicago crime records through the city of Chicago’s data portal website [97], along with census data through the United States Census Bureau and weather data through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | 6 million records | - | Feedforward CNN RNN RNN + CNN | 71.3 72.7 74.1 75.6 |
[69] | Portland crime data through the National Institution of Justice Real-Time Crime Forecasting, along with census data through the United States Census Bureau and weather data through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | - | - | Feedforward CNN RNN RNN + CNN | 62.2 62.9 63.8 65.3 |
[70] | Denver crimes dataset (2010–2015) [104] | 333,068 | 19 | NB DT | 51 42 |
[70] | Los Angeles crimes dataset (96% for 2014 and 4% for before 2014) [105] | 243,750 | 14 | NB DT | 54 43 |
4.1.3. Natural Language Processing
Reference | Data Source(s) | Description | Result |
---|---|---|---|
[115] | Text analysis and classification using the WEKA toolkit and SVM | ||
[116] | Twitter data in addition to 290 incident records collected from local law enforcement agencies in Charlottesville, Virginia | Explores Twitter-based prediction of criminal incidents, with a focus on hit-and-run crimes, using NLP techniques such as sentiment analysis and event extraction. A linear regression model is also used to predict if a crime will occur in the following days based on information extracted from the tweets | The model’s performance was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The results indicated that date from social media platforms such as Twitter could be a valuable resource for predicting criminal incidents, but there are areas for improvement and further research, especially considering the temporal aspect of event descriptions and feature selection methods |
[118] | Portuguese narrative police reports | Presents a system that uses information retrieval techniques to extract, transform, clean, load, and find a connection between police reports collected from different sources to identify relevant entities within the extracted information | The proposed model outperformed Linguakit and RAPPORT in terms of the F-score |
[119] | Mozenda Web Screen Scrapper tool and 4 online newspapers: Otago Daily Times, Zealand Herald, Sydney Morning Herald, and The Hindu | Proposed a crime information extraction system using NER and a conditional random fields (CRF) machine learning approach to identify locations in sentences and classify them based on online newspapers by focusing on information related to the theft crime | The model was evaluated based on four newspaper articles from three countries, resulting in accuracy of 84% to 90% for articles from New Zealand and 73% to 75% for articles from India and Australia |
[120] | Malaysian newspapers and social media sites | Introduced an ensemble framework for crime information extraction from the web using NER and classification algorithms including NB, SVM, and KNN, along with a weighted voting ensemble method to combine them | The proposed model outperformed the baseline models, with an F-score of 89.48% for identifying crime types and 93.36% for extracting crime-related entities |
[121] | News articles related to identity theft on the internet found by search engines and annual identity theft reports | Proposed an approach to analyze criminal behaviors and predict future trends of identity theft and fraud using NLP methods and information extraction, including NER and part-of-speech tagging based on raw text from news articles on the web. The Identity Threat Assessment and Prediction (ITAP) algorithm, designed in a modular pipeline, collects news stories, preprocesses them, extracts named entities, categorizes them, and creates identity theft records | Around 3500 identity theft news stories were collected, their text was cleaned, and named entities were extracted and categorized. These categories formed identity theft records, which were then used for various analyses, such as identifying affected groups, assessing risk for specific PII attributes, tracking occurrence frequency across different sectors and locations, evaluating potential financial impacts, and tracking changes over time |
[122] | A set of crime reports related to internet fraud on the official website of the Dutch police (each report contains 1–5 sentences and 85 tokens on average) | Evaluates the standard NER algorithm, named Frog, for the Dutch language based on a manually annotated corpus collected from 250 complaints reports from the Dutch police; it discusses confusion in entity type assignment and recall errors, and proposes ways to improve performance | The current Dutch NER algorithm performs inadequately on unedited free-entry data. The significance of this depends on the purpose of entity recognition, e.g., law enforcement seeks relevant information, while linguistics aims for named-entity identification, so different types and assignments matter, and domain-specific roles demand further processing |
[123] | - | Proposed a method for extracting valuable information about suspects’ hard drives and social networks to discover criminal communities and analyze their relations | The method efficiently identified criminal communities and their interlinked subgroups, offering a detailed view of network structure, crucial for criminal network analysis; it also received positive feedback from a Canadian law enforcement unit’s digital forensics team |
[117] | A set of police narrative reports provided from the Phoenix Police Department database | Presents a neural-network-based entity extractor by using NER techniques to detect valuable entities such as person names, addresses, narcotic drugs, and vehicle names in police reports | The system achieved promising precision and recall rates for person names and narcotic drugs but performed less effectively for addresses and personal properties |
[124] | Texts on the web | Proposed a semantic NLP model to develop systems that extract crime information from unstructured text in a collaborative web environment. The framework centers around a semantic inferential model (SIM)-based NLP module | This framework’s performance was demonstrated through the creation of “WikiCrimesIE,” a tool for extracting crime-related information from text on the web, which gained an F-score of 78% for crime extraction and 70% for crime type identification |
[125] | Chinese criminal investigation notes, online news on the internet, and litigation data | Introduces a method for criminal information analysis and relation visualization by utilizing entity extraction techniques and part-of-speech (POS) tagging based on Chinese criminal text | By forming term networks based on documents from sources like criminal investigation notes, news, and litigation data, this method enhances the visualization of detailed information and hidden relationships, enabling efficient exploration of potential criminal activities |
[126] | 65 Arabic crime articles with a total of 13,300 words | Introduces a rule-based NER to identify and classify named entities in Arabic crime text as it applies syntactical rules such as sentence splitting, tokenization, and POS tagging | The system achieved 90% accuracy, showing effectiveness and satisfactory performance. The paper outlines plans to integrate the rule-based system with machine learning techniques and embed it within a crime analysis framework |
[127] | Crime news articles represented in html format collected from the Malaysian National News Agency (BERNAMA | Introduces a method to extract information on nationalities from crime news in Malaysia by applying NER using gazetteers and rule-based extraction. The system is composed of three modules: direct extraction, indirect extraction, and victim–suspect reference identification | The method’s performance was evaluated based on a manual extraction system and showed an F-score of 70%. The authors also highlighted challenges with punctuation and nationality indicators causing the system to miss certain references or extract incorrectly, as well as difficulties in identifying implicit state markers for victims or suspects |
[128] | Crime news from online sources and crime records for 2001 to 2014 provided by the National Crime Records Bureau | Presents an Android application called Reach 360, designed to offer alerts and support in dangerous situations, including features such as alerting contacts, demonstrating crime hotspots via heatmaps, and forecasting crimes based on crime news using machine learning. NLP tasks such as sentence segmentation, word tokenization, POS, and NER are used to process crime news | Multilayer perceptron performed better than logistic regression and RF in terms of accuracy for crime forecasting. The study does not provide other specific details on the performance evaluation of their application; it mainly focuses on introducing its features, the methodology behind it, and its potential to address safety concerns and forecast crimes |
[129] | Official data of crime records from Porto’s Public Security Police between January 2016 and December 2018 | Explores the application of mapping techniques, NLP, and ML models such as SVM, LR, DT, and RF to analyze crime patterns and predict crimes. The study collected tweets related to insecurity around crime locations and performed topic modeling and sentiment analysis. Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) was also used to classify tweets into topics, while sentiment analysis identified positive and negative sentiments related to crime | This method identified crime patterns and crime hotspots in downtown Porto and emphasized the importance of crime trend forecasting for resource allocation. The study does not provide details on the evaluation of the used models |
[130] | Patch Hate Crime dataset, New York Times news reports | Introduces a framework to address the problem of hate speech on social media and its connection to hate crime with a combination of event extraction through NLP, time-series analysis, and regression analysis. The event-related factors extracted using event extraction are integrated into a regression model. These factors, along with other predictive features, are used to predict hate crime trends | Various models were applied to forecast hate crime trends, and the results were compared. Regressive models outperformed the ARIMA model, with models including event-related variables performing better |
[131] | Twitter posts by users in the United Kingdom between October 2015 and October 2016 | Presents a comprehensive study of online antagonistic content on Twitter that involved data collection from Twitter | The authors developed a supervised machine learning classifier with a bag-of-words model to identify antisemitic content, providing an analysis of the production and propagation of antagonistic content |
[132] | A corpus of two million downloaded tweets | Introduces an intelligent system used by the Spanish National Office Against Hate Crimes to identify and monitor hate speech on Twitter. The system makes use of NLP methods including lemmatization, stop-word removal, and POS tagging for preprocessing tweets, and then classifies them using MLP and LSTM | The authors evaluated 19 different strategies, each comprising various combinations of features and classification models. Ultimately, the top-performing model, achieving an AUC of 0.828, leveraged word embeddings, emojis, and token expressions and further enhanced them through text frequency–inverse document frequency. This approach outperformed the existing models in the literature. |
[71] | Twitter posts | Applies ML algorithms to Twitter posts for text classification and sentiment analysis to analyze hate speech and hateful sentiment in the context of spiritual belief | SVM outperformed NB and KNN in terms of F-score, precision, and recall for sentiment classification and religion classification |
4.2. Addressing RQ2
5. Next-Generation Smart Policing
- For example:
- [{
- “criminal name”: “Value1”,
- “criminal age”: “Value2”,
- “location”: “Value3”,
- # ...
- }]
- If any of this information is not defined in the report just leave it blank. You also need to summarize the narrative report and put it into “summary” in the same JSON format file.”
6. Discussion
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Tool | Reference | Description and Application | Type | Other Technologies in Use | Agencies That Use the Tool |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CompStat | [20,37] | Crime data analysis to identify crime trends and patterns within specific districts and guide police departments in addressing crime and allocating resources more efficiently | Location-based | Geographic information system (GIS) | New York Police Department (NYPD) |
PredPol | [34,35] | An ML algorithm trained on past crime data alongside hotspot mapping to predict crime risks | Based on crime type, location, and time | Google Maps, GPS, and AVL | More than 60 police departments, including the Los Angeles Police Department and the Atlanta Police Department |
HunchLab | [19,38,39] | Uses ML to find crime trends and reflects community needs by giving weight to different types of crimes | Location-based | GIS | Philadelphia Police Department |
Palantir | [17] | Makes predictions about crime perpetrators who fit the queries that officers input to the system | Location-based | - | Salt Lake City Police Department |
Strategic Subject List | [40,41] | Scoring algorithm to predict risks of offending and involvement in criminal activities based on empirical data, considering factors like the person’s criminal record and violence within their criminal network | Person-based | - | Chicago Police Department (CPD) |
Beware | [39,42,43] | Individualized risk assessments of potential offenders to inform of potential criminal activities; the risk assessment is based on public arrest records, social media posts, and information compiled by commercial data brokers | Person-based | - | Fresno Police Department |
Domain Awareness System | [44] | An urban network consisting of sensors, databases, devices, software, and infrastructure designed to provide insights and information to officers via smartphones and precinct computers to make them aware of possible criminal activities | A combination of location-based and person-based strategies | Surveillance systems like cameras | New York Police Department (NYPD) |
COPLINK | [45,46] | Consists of two components: COPLINK Connect for information sharing between police officers and law enforcement agencies, and COPLINK Detect, which uses AI to find crime patterns | Both location-based and person-based | - | Phoenix Police Department |
PRECOBS | [47] | Pre-crime observation system that predicts crimes by mainly consulting the near-repeat hypothesis and a rational-choice-framed conception of offenders that can be translated into algorithms for classifying and evaluating crime risk in geographic areas | Location-based | - | Police departments in Switzerland and Germany |
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Sarzaeim, P.; Mahmoud, Q.H.; Azim, A.; Bauer, G.; Bowles, I. A Systematic Review of Using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Smart Policing. Computers 2023, 12, 255. https://doi.org/10.3390/computers12120255
Sarzaeim P, Mahmoud QH, Azim A, Bauer G, Bowles I. A Systematic Review of Using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Smart Policing. Computers. 2023; 12(12):255. https://doi.org/10.3390/computers12120255
Chicago/Turabian StyleSarzaeim, Paria, Qusay H. Mahmoud, Akramul Azim, Gary Bauer, and Ian Bowles. 2023. "A Systematic Review of Using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Smart Policing" Computers 12, no. 12: 255. https://doi.org/10.3390/computers12120255
APA StyleSarzaeim, P., Mahmoud, Q. H., Azim, A., Bauer, G., & Bowles, I. (2023). A Systematic Review of Using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Smart Policing. Computers, 12(12), 255. https://doi.org/10.3390/computers12120255