Do All Stage IA Pancreatic Cancer Patients Need Adjuvant Chemotherapy?
Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methods
Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Demographics of the Entire Cohort
3.2. Comparison of Patients Who Received AC Versus Those Who Did Not
3.3. Risk Factors Associated with Overall Survival
3.4. Survival Analysis According to Independent Risk Factors
3.5. Consideration of Immortal Time Bias
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| PDAC | Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma |
| AC | Adjuvant Chemotherapy |
| NCBD | National Cancer Database |
| NCCN | National Comprehensive Cancer Network |
| AJCC | American Joint Committee in Cancer |
| OS | Overall Survival |
| LVI | Lymphovascular Invasion |
References
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| Variables | All Patients (n = 1421) | No Chemotherapy (n = 615) | Adjuvant Chemotherapy (n = 806) | p-Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| n (%) | n (%) | n (%) | ||
| Age | <0.0001 | |||
| 18–49 | 96 (6.75%) | 32 (5.2) | 64 (7.9) | |
| 50–64 | 460 (32.37%) | 160 (26.0) | 300 (37.2) | |
| 65–74 | 487 (34.27%) | 208 (33.8) | 279 (34.6) | |
| 75 and more | 378 (26.59%) | 215 (35.0) | 163 (20.2) | |
| Sex | 0.1314 | |||
| Male | 617 (43.42%) | 281 (45.5) | 336 (41.6) | |
| Female | 804 (56.55%) | 334 (54.3) | 470 (58.3) | |
| Race/Ethnicity | 0.595 | |||
| White | 1122 (78.96%) | 496 (80.6) | 626 (77.6) | |
| Black | 137 (9.64%) | 54 (8.7) | 83 (10.2) | |
| Hispanic | 83 (5.84%) | 33 (5.3) | 50 (6.2) | |
| Other | 79 (5.56%) | 32 (5.2) | 47 (5.8) | |
| Insurance | <0.0001 | |||
| Private Insurance | 505 (35.52%) | 173 (28.1) | 332 (41.2) | |
| Medicaid | 78 (5.49%) | 38 (6.2) | 40 (5.0) | |
| Medicare | 777 (54.68%) | 383 (62.3) | 394 (48.9) | |
| Other Government | 24 (1.69%) | 7 (1.1) | 17 (2.1) | |
| Uninsured/Unknown | 37 (2.60%) | 14 (2.3) | 23 (2.9) | |
| Median income Quantiles 2012–2016 | 0.1953 | |||
| <$40,227 | 192 (13.51%) | 91 (14.7) | 101 (12.5) | |
| $40,227–50,353 | 233 (16.39%) | 112 (18.2) | 121 (15.0) | |
| $50,354–63,332 | 278 (19.56%) | 112 (18.2) | 166 (20.6) | |
| ≥$63,333 | 496 (34.91%) | 213 (40.3) | 283 (42.2) | |
| Unknown | 222 (15.63%) | 87 (14.1) | 135 (16.7) | |
| Urban/Rural 2013 | 0.5504 | |||
| Metro ≥ 250 K | 1014 (71.31%) | 431 (70.1) | 583 (72.3) | |
| Urban ≥ 2500 | 315 (22.17%) | 141 (22.9) | 174 (21.2) | |
| Rural < 2500 | 24 (1.69%) | 9 (1.4) | 15 (1.8) | |
| Unknown | 68 (4.78%) | 34 (5.5) | 34 (4.2) | |
| Distance from cancer reporting facility | 0.0008 | |||
| <50 miles | 937 (65.94%) | 388 (63.1) | 549 (68.1) | |
| ≥50 miles | 272 (19.14%) | 145 (23.6) | 127 (15.8) | |
| Unknown | 212 (14.92%) | 82 (13.3) | 130 (16.1) | |
| Facility type | 0.5608 | |||
| Academic | 758 (53.33%) | 338 (54.9) | 420 (52.1) | |
| Non-academic | 631 (44.39%) | 264 (42.9) | 367 (45.5) | |
| Unknown | 32 (2.25%) | 13 (2.1) | 19 (2.3) | |
| Charlson-Deyo Score | 0.0399 | |||
| 0 | 905 (63.68%) | 373 (60.7) | 532 (66.0) | |
| 1 | 350 (24.63%) | 154 (25.0) | 196 (24.3) | |
| 2 | 103 (7.25%) | 53 (8.6) | 50 (6.2) | |
| 3+ | 63 (4.43%) | 35 (5.7) | 28 (3.5) | |
| Diagnosis Year | 0.0126 | |||
| 2010–2015 | 494 (34.76%) | 236 (38.4) | 258 (32.0) | |
| 2016–2021 | 927 (65.24%) | 379 (61.6) | 548 (68.0) | |
| Primary Site | 0.0109 | |||
| Head | 761 (53.54%) | 320 (52.0) | 441 (54.7) | |
| Body | 229 (16.12%) | 88 (14.3) | 141 (17.5) | |
| Tail | 286 (20.13%) | 127 (20.7) | 159 (19.7) | |
| Other | 145 (10.20%) | 80 (13.0) | 65 (8.1) | |
| Tumor size | <0.0001 | |||
| <1 cm | 440 (30.96%) | 246 (40) | 194 (24.1) | |
| 1–2 cm | 981 (69.04%) | 369 (60) | 612 (75.9) | |
| Median (cm) | 2.9 (0.20%) | 1.4 | 1.5 | |
| Grade | <0.0001 | |||
| Well differentiated | 330 (23.23%) | 168 (27.3) | 162 (20.1) | |
| Mod. differentiated | 722 (50.81%) | 273 (44.4) | 449 (55.7) | |
| Poorly differentiated | 224 (15.76%) | 75 (12.2) | 149 (18.5) | |
| Undifferentiated | 5 (0.35%) | 2 (0.0) | 3 (0.0) | |
| Unknown | 140 (9.85%) | 97 (15.7) | 43 (5.3) | |
| LVI | 0.0336 | |||
| No | 1182 (83.19%) | 520 (84.5) | 662 (82) | |
| Yes | 145 (10.20%) | 49 (7.9) | 96 (11.9) | |
| Unknown | 94 (6.62%) | 46 (7.4) | 48 (5.9) | |
| Number of lymph nodes examined | 0.8351 | |||
| <12 | 451 (31.72%) | 197 (32.0) | 254 (31.5) | |
| ≥12 | 970 (68.26%) | 418 (67.9) | 552 (68.5) | |
| Resection Type | 0.7344 | |||
| Whipple | 576 (40.53%) | 254 (41.3) | 322 (39.9) | |
| Total panc | 160 (11.26%) | 65 (10.5) | 95 (11.7) | |
| Pancreatectomy, NOS | 685 (48.22%) | 296 (48.1) | 389 (48.2) | |
| Surgical Margins | 0.0084 | |||
| No residual tumor | 1333 (93.81%) | 589 (95.7) | 744 (92.3) | |
| With residual tumor | 81 (5.70%) | 22 (3.5) | 59 (7.3) | |
| Unknown | 7 (0.49%) | 4 (0.0) | 3 (0.0) | |
| LoS after surgery | <0.0001 | |||
| ≤7 days | 824 (57.99%) | 317 (51.5) | 507 (62.9) | |
| >7 days | 597 (42.01%) | 298 (48.4) | 299 (37.1) | |
| 30 days readmission | 0.0103 | |||
| No | 1287 (90.58%) | 543 (88.3) | 744 (92.3) | |
| Yes | 134 (9.42%) | 72 (11.7) | 62 (7.6) | |
| Variable | Hazard Ratio (95% CI) | p-Value |
|---|---|---|
| Chemotherapy | ||
| No | 1.000 | |
| Single agent | 0.697 (0.538–0.904) | 0.0064 |
| Multi-agent | 0.587 (0.435–0.793) | 0.0005 |
| Age | ||
| 18–49 | 1.000 | |
| 50–64 | 2.217 (1.093–4.495) | 0.0273 |
| 65–74 | 1.787 (0.842–3.797) | 0.1308 |
| 75 and more | 2.201 (1.031–4.699) | 0.0414 |
| Sex | ||
| Male | 1.000 | |
| Female | 1.098 (0.882–1.366) | 0.4015 |
| Race/Ethnicity | ||
| Non-Hispanic white | 1.000 | |
| Non-Hispanic black | 0.923 (0.623–1.367) | 0.6882 |
| Hispanic | 0.832 (0.488–1.418) | 0.4985 |
| Other | 1.272 (0.817–1.981) | 0.2868 |
| Insurance | ||
| Private Insurance | 1.000 | |
| Medicaid | 1.273 (0.767–2.112) | 0.3496 |
| Medicare | 1.506 (1.073–2.114) | 0.0180 |
| Other Government | 1.614 (0.705–3.693) | 0.2570 |
| Not Insured/Unknown | 0.884 (0.438–1.784) | 0.7302 |
| Median income Quantiles 2012–2016 | ||
| <$40,227 | 1.000 | |
| $40,227–50,353 | 0.819 (0.577–1.162) | 0.2626 |
| $50,354–63,332 | 0.928 (0.655–1.315) | 0.6738 |
| ≥$63,333 | 0.660 (0.473–0.922) | 0.0148 |
| Urban/Rural 2013 | ||
| Metro ≥ 250 K | 1.000 | |
| Urban ≥ 2500 | 0.952 (0.707–1.28) | 0.7426 |
| Rural < 2500 | 0.79 (0.305–2.047) | 0.6279 |
| Distance from cancer reporting facility | ||
| <50 miles | 1.000 | |
| ≥50 miles | 0.988 (0.723–1.352) | 0.9420 |
| Facility type | ||
| Academic | 1.000 | |
| Non-academic | 1.086 (0.871–1.355) | 0.4613 |
| Charlson-Deyo Score | ||
| 0 | 1.000 | |
| 1 | 0.969 (0.749–1.252) | 0.8070 |
| 2 | 1.124 (0.763–1.655) | 0.5554 |
| 3+ | 1.139 (0.640–2.028) | 0.6575 |
| Diagnosis year | ||
| 2010–2015 | 1.000 | |
| 2016–2021 | 0.840 (0.656–1.076) | 0.1678 |
| Primary Site | ||
| Head | 1.000 | |
| Body | 1.099 (0.790–1.530) | 0.5756 |
| Tail | 1.010 (0.705–1.446) | 0.9572 |
| Other | 1.115 (0.756–1.646) | 0.5822 |
| Tumor size | ||
| <1 cm | 1.000 | |
| 1–2 cm | 1.648 (1.249–2.176) | 0.0004 |
| Grade | ||
| Well differentiated | 1.00 | |
| Moderately/poorly/undifferentiated | 1.361 (1.054–1.757) | 0.0182 |
| LVI | ||
| No | 1.000 | |
| Yes | 1.564 (1.167–2.096) | 0.0028 |
| Number of lymph nodes examined | ||
| <12 | 1.000 | |
| ≥12 | 0.787 (0.627–0.989) | 0.0395 |
| Resection Type | ||
| Whipple | 1.000 | |
| Total pancreatectomy | 1.173 (0.825–1.667) | 0.3750 |
| Pancreatectomy, NOS | 0.994 (0.755–1.308) | 0.9638 |
| Surgical Margins | ||
| No residual tumor | 1.000 | |
| With residual tumor | 1.804 (1.228–2.652) | 0.0027 |
| LoS after surgery | ||
| ≤7 days | 1.000 | |
| >7 days | 1.620 (1.287–2.040) | <0.0001 |
| 30 days readmission | ||
| No | 1.000 | |
| Yes | 0.784 (0.544–1.129) | 0.1911 |
| Number of Risk Factors | All Patients | No Chemotherapy | Adjuvant Chemotherapy | p-Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n (%) | 5-Years Survival (95% CI) | Median OS (95% CI) | Median OS (95% CI) | ||
| 0 | 37 (3.9) | 92.9 (90.2–95.6) | NA | NA | 0.5466 |
| 1 | 158 (16.4) | 78.8 (69.7–85.4) | 111 (80.6–NA) | NA | 0.0735 |
| 2 | 323 (33.6) | 69.0 (62.7–74.4) | 127.6 (73.7–NA) | 129.2 (106.5–NA) | 0.129 |
| 3 | 288 (30.0) | 56.5 (49.8–62.7) | 49.4 (35.4–88.9) | 104.1 (66.4–NA) | 0.0016 |
| ≥4 | 155 (16.2) | 37.2 (28.4–46.0) | 34.9 (3.1–17.1) | 46.6 (35.3–74.2) | 0.025 |
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Lyons, J.M., III; Hsieh, M.-C.; Avanzino, K.C.; Al Efishat, M.; Chu, Q. Do All Stage IA Pancreatic Cancer Patients Need Adjuvant Chemotherapy? Cancers 2026, 18, 1195. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers18081195
Lyons JM III, Hsieh M-C, Avanzino KC, Al Efishat M, Chu Q. Do All Stage IA Pancreatic Cancer Patients Need Adjuvant Chemotherapy? Cancers. 2026; 18(8):1195. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers18081195
Chicago/Turabian StyleLyons, John M., III, Mei-Chin Hsieh, Kenneth C. Avanzino, Mohammad Al Efishat, and Quyen Chu. 2026. "Do All Stage IA Pancreatic Cancer Patients Need Adjuvant Chemotherapy?" Cancers 18, no. 8: 1195. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers18081195
APA StyleLyons, J. M., III, Hsieh, M.-C., Avanzino, K. C., Al Efishat, M., & Chu, Q. (2026). Do All Stage IA Pancreatic Cancer Patients Need Adjuvant Chemotherapy? Cancers, 18(8), 1195. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers18081195

