Impact of a Switch to Plant-Based Foods That Visually and Functionally Mimic Animal-Source Meat and Dairy Milk for the Australian Population—A Dietary Modelling Study
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Source and Preparation
2.2. Identification of ‘Easily Swappable’ Dairy Milk and Animal-Source Meat and ‘Key Nutrients’
2.3. Development of the Dietary Transition Scenarios
2.4. Dietary Modelling
3. Results
3.1. Combined Meat and Milk Scenarios
3.2. Meat Scenarios
3.3. Milk Scenarios
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Food and AUSNUT Codes [33] | Base Case Mean Daily Intake (g) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Population (2 Years and Over) | Young Children (2–3 Years) | Young Women (19–30 Years) | Young Men (19–30 Years) | Older Adults (71 Years and Over) | ||
‘Easily Swappable Animal-Source Meat’ | Beef 18101001–18101273 (mainly steak, fillet and mince) | 18.7 | 6.9 | 14.2 | 22.2 | 19.4 |
Chicken 18301001–18301087 (mainly breast, drumsticks, wings, thighs and fillets) | 24.3 | 12.7 | 20.9 | 42.5 | 21.4 | |
Sausages 18501001–18503009 (beef, chicken or pork sausages) | 10.2 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 13.4 | 9.3 | |
Total meat (beef, chicken and sausages) | 53.2 | 27.5 | 41.9 | 78.1 | 50.2 | |
‘Easily Swappable Dairy Milk’ | Dairy milk 19101001–19105005 (fluid cows’ milk) | 143.4 | 274.2 | 115.0 | 158.7 | 147.9 |
Nutrient | ‘Easily Swappable Animal-Source Meat’ 2 | ‘Easily Swappable Dairy Milk’ 3 | Combined ‘Easily Swappable Dairy Milk and Animal-Source Meat’ | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean Intake | % Total Intake | Mean Intake | % Total Intake | Mean Intake | % Total Intake | |
Energy (kJ) | 441 | 5.2 | 365 | 4.3 | 806 | 9.5 |
Protein (g) | 13.4 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 18.7 | 21.4 |
Fat (g) | 5.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 12.5 |
Saturated fat (g) | 2.0 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 15.6 |
Monounsaturated fat (g) | 2.5 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 12.4 |
n-3 long-chain fatty acids (mg) | 21.4 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 23.7 | 9.5 |
Vitamin A retinol equivalents (µg) | 7.7 | 1.0 | 51.9 | 6.4 | 59.6 | 7.4 |
Riboflavin (mg) | 0.1 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 15.8 | 0.4 | 20.6 |
Niacin derived equivalents (mg) | 5.3 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 17.3 |
Vitamin B6 (mg) | 0.2 | 10.7 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 0.2 | 16.4 |
Vitamin B12 (µg) | 0.6 | 13.9 | 0.9 | 20.7 | 1.5 | 34.6 |
Calcium (mg) | 5.6 | 0.7 | 170.0 | 21.1 | 175.6 | 21.8 |
Iodine (µg) | 1.0 | 0.6 | 33.1 | 19.3 | 34.1 | 19.9 |
Iron (mg) | 0.8 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 7.4 |
Magnesium (mg) | 13.0 | 4.1 | 16.4 | 5.1 | 29.3 | 9.2 |
Phosphorus (mg) | 125 | 8.8 | 142 | 10.0 | 267 | 18.8 |
Potassium (mg) | 160 | 5.7 | 228 | 8.1 | 388 | 13.9 |
Selenium (µg) | 9.7 | 11.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 11.3 | 13.2 |
Sodium (mg) | 131 | 5.5 | 58.9 | 2.4 | 190 | 7.9 |
Zinc (mg) | 1.6 | 15.5 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 20.7 |
Population Group | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All (2 yr+) | Young Children (2–3 yrs) | Young Men (19–30 yrs) | Young Women (19–30 yrs) | Older Adults (71+ yrs) | |
Energy | 0.4 | −2.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Protein | −3.5 | −8.1 | −2.6 | −3.6 | −4.5 |
Total fat | 2.3 | −1.5 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
Saturated fat | −4.3 | −19.5 | −4.6 | −2.6 | −3.8 |
Monounsaturated fat | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
n-3 long-chain fatty acids | −7.9 | −13.5 | −6.5 | −10.5 | −7.1 |
Vitamin A (ret. equiv) | −1.4 | −7.0 | −2.9 | −0.8 | 0.0 |
Riboflavin | −6.8 | −9.8 | −6.8 | −5.5 | −6.5 |
Niacin (der. equiv) | −7.7 | −12.7 | −5.4 | −9.7 | −8.9 |
Vitamin B6 | −3.5 | 6.7 | −3.7 | −5.1 | −1.0 |
Vitamin B12 | −19.0 | −31.3 | −16.4 | −16.5 | −19.7 |
Calcium | −1.9 | −5.0 | −1.9 | −0.6 | −2.4 |
Iodine | −14.1 | −36.4 | −13.0 | −11.9 | −15.4 |
Iron | 15.2 | 20.9 | 12.6 | 16.7 | 16.2 |
Magnesium | 5.3 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
Phosphorus | −6.2 | −14.1 | −5.2 | −6.0 | −7.2 |
Potassium | −1.8 | −5.1 | −1.6 | −1.9 | −2.4 |
Selenium | −3.1 | −6.8 | −2.3 | −4.4 | −3.6 |
Sodium | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 9.0 |
Zinc | −7.0 | −11.0 | −6.1 | −5.1 | −8.3 |
Predicted Change with the Combined Accelerated Meat and Milk Scenario | Previously Published Estimations of Nutrient Intake Inadequacy in the Australian Population ** | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Less Than 2% | 2 to <10% | 10 to 20% | Over 20% | |
Over 20% increase in intake | Iron (YC) | |||
10 to 20% increase in intake | Magnesium (YC) | Iron (YM, OA) | Iron (All) | Iron (YW) |
2 to <10% increase in intake | Vitamin B6 (YC) | Magnesium (All, YA, OA) | ||
Less than 2% change in intake | Vitamin A (All, YW, OA) | Vitamin B6 (OA) Calcium (All, YM, YW) | ||
2 to <10% decrease in intake | Riboflavin (YC) Niacin (All, YM, YW, OA) Phosphorus (All M, YM, YW, OA) Protein (All, 2–3, YM, YW) Vitamin A (YC) Calcium (YC) Selenium (YC, YM) | Riboflavin (All M, All F, YM, YW) Phosphorus (All F) Protein (OW) Vitamin B6 (All, YM) Selenium (All, YW) | Protein (OM) Zinc (All F, YW, OW) Selenium (OA) | n-3 long-chain fatty acids (YA, OA) Riboflavin (OA) Zinc (All M, YM, OM) Vitamin A (YM) Vitamin B6 (YW) Calcium (OA) |
10–20% decrease in intake | Niacin (YC) Vitamin B12 (All M, YM, OM) Iodine (All M, YM) Phosphorus (YC) Zinc (YC) | Vitamin B12 (All F, YW, OW) Iodine (All F, OA) | Iodine (YW) | |
Over 20% decrease in intake | Vitamin B12 (YC) Iodine (YC) |
Population Group | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All (2 Years+) | Young Children (2–3 Years) | Young Men (19–30 Years) | Young Women (19–30 Years) | Older Adults (71+ Years) | |
Energy | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Protein | −1.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
Total fat | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
Saturated fat | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
Monounsaturated fat | 0.3 | −0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
n-3 long-chain fatty acids | −7.1 | −8.5 | −5.7 | −9.5 | −6.5 |
Vitamin A (ret. equiv) | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Riboflavin | −1.7 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −1.9 | −1.9 |
Niacin (der. equiv) | −5.7 | −7.1 | −4.0 | −7.9 | −6.3 |
Vitamin B6 | −3.6 | −4.7 | −2.3 | −4.8 | −4.4 |
Vitamin B12 | −7.4 | −6.9 | −5.6 | −6.5 | −8.1 |
Calcium | 3.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
Iodine | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
Iron | 11.8 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 13.7 | 12.6 |
Magnesium | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
Phosphorus | −0.9 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −1.1 | −0.9 |
Potassium | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Selenium | −2.4 | −3.6 | −1.8 | −3.8 | −2.8 |
Sodium | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.9 |
Zinc | −3.9 | −2.5 | −3.6 | −2.2 | −4.6 |
Population Group | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All (2 Years+) | Young Children (2–3 Years) | Young Men (19–30 Years) | Young Women (19–30 Years) | Older Adults (71+ Years) | |
Energy | −0.8 | −3.3 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
Protein | −2.6 | −7.4 | −1.9 | −2.3 | −3.2 |
Total fat | −0.1 | −3.3 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Saturated fat | −6.5 | −20.7 | −6.3 | −5.5 | −6.4 |
Monounsaturated fat | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
n-3 long-chain fatty acids | −0.8 | −5.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
Vitamin A (ret. equiv) | −1.7 | −7.2 | −3.2 | −1.1 | −0.2 |
Riboflavin | −5.1 | −8.7 | −5.7 | −3.6 | −4.7 |
Niacin (der. equiv) | −2.0 | −5.6 | −1.4 | −1.8 | −2.5 |
Vitamin B6 | 0.1 | 11.4 | −1.4 | −0.3 | 3.4 |
Vitamin B12 | −11.7 | −24.3 | −10.8 | −10.0 | −11.6 |
Calcium | −5.4 | −7.4 | −4.9 | −4.2 | −6.5 |
Iodine | −17.4 | −38.9 | −15.7 | −15.6 | −19.1 |
Iron | 3.4 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
Magnesium | 2.1 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Phosphorus | −5.2 | −13.2 | −4.4 | −4.8 | −6.3 |
Potassium | −2.4 | −5.9 | −2.2 | −2.4 | −3.1 |
Selenium | −0.7 | −3.2 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
Sodium | 0.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
Zinc | −3.1 | −8.5 | −2.4 | −2.9 | −3.7 |
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Lawrence, A.S.; Huang, H.; Johnson, B.J.; Wycherley, T.P. Impact of a Switch to Plant-Based Foods That Visually and Functionally Mimic Animal-Source Meat and Dairy Milk for the Australian Population—A Dietary Modelling Study. Nutrients 2023, 15, 1825. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15081825
Lawrence AS, Huang H, Johnson BJ, Wycherley TP. Impact of a Switch to Plant-Based Foods That Visually and Functionally Mimic Animal-Source Meat and Dairy Milk for the Australian Population—A Dietary Modelling Study. Nutrients. 2023; 15(8):1825. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15081825
Chicago/Turabian StyleLawrence, Anita S., Huiying Huang, Brittany J. Johnson, and Thomas P. Wycherley. 2023. "Impact of a Switch to Plant-Based Foods That Visually and Functionally Mimic Animal-Source Meat and Dairy Milk for the Australian Population—A Dietary Modelling Study" Nutrients 15, no. 8: 1825. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15081825