Pixel-Level Uncertainty Quantification for Land Surface Temperature Retrieved from MODIS Thermal Infrared Data (2003–2023)

Land surface temperature (LST) is a core physical parameter that characterizes land surface processes and surface-atmosphere energy exchange. As the demand for high-accuracy LST products intensifies across diverse research domains—including climate science, hydrology, and ecosystem modeling—the systematic quantification of pixel-level retrieval uncertainties has become essential for generating long-term, consistent Climate Data Records (CDRs). However, existing studies predominantly emphasize algorithmic development or localized validation, with limited attention to systematic cross-site and long-term uncertainty assessments. This gap impedes a comprehensive understanding of the compositional structure and spatiotemporal variability of LST retrieval uncertainties under heterogeneous surface and atmospheric conditions. In this study, based on the improved generalized split-window (GSW) algorithm and error propagation theory, the total uncertainty (U_total) and its four primary components—algorithm uncertainty (U_a), land surface emissivity uncertainty (U_e), noise equivalent delta temperature uncertainty (U_n), and atmospheric water vapor uncertainty (U_w)—at the pixel level over long time series and across multiple sites are quantified. Our analysis spans a 21-year period (2003–2023) and encompasses multiple geographically distributed sites, utilizing high-quality Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal infrared data—specifically MYD11_L2 and MOD11_L2 products—collocated at the locations of 15 globally distributed ground-based reference sites. These sites are used to represent diverse climatic regimes and land-cover conditions, rather than to provide point-scale “true” LST values for residual-based validation. Results show that the interquartile range (IQR) of U_total is consistently concentrated between 1.0 and 1.2 K, demonstrating long-term stability. Systematic differences in U_total are identified across sensor platforms and diurnal cycles: U_total for Aqua/MYD data (1.13–1.25 K) is marginally higher than that for Terra/MOD data (1.05–1.17 K); similarly, daytime U_total (1.08–1.23 K) is generally slightly elevated relative to nighttime U_total (1.05–1.18 K). The contributions of individual uncertainty components to U_total exhibit substantial variation, with mean relative contributions of 81.97%, 11.32%, 4.46%, and 2.25% for U_e, U_a, U_n, and U_w, respectively. The dominant drivers of U_total differ markedly across climatic regions: in arid regions, U_total is predominantly governed by U_e, termed “emissivity-dominated,” accounting for over 85% of the total; conversely, humid tropical regions exhibit a “surface-atmosphere co-influenced” regime, characterized by a reduced contribution from U_e and correspondingly enhanced contributions from U_a and U_w. Furthermore, U_total decreases with increasing total column water vapor (TCWV) (Pearson correlation coefficient r = −0.498; linear slope k = −0.0425 K/(g/cm²)), and increases with increasing viewing zenith angle (VZA) (r = 0.208; k = 0.0022 K/degree). While U_a, U_n, and U_w all increase with TCWV, U_e decreases.