Forecasting of Built-Up Land Expansion in a Desert Urban Environment
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- What is the nature of desert urban dynamics across cities and towns in Oman?
- What are the dominant drivers of LULC across the desert urban environments of Oman?
- What are the magnitude and directions of LULC changes across desert urban areas? To what extent do these urban dynamics affect green cover?
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Acquisition and Processing
2.2.1. Satellite Imagery
2.2.2. LULC Classification and Accuracy
2.2.3. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)
2.2.4. Markov Chain (MC)
2.2.5. Spatial Trends
3. Results
3.1. Model Validation
3.2. Driving Forces of Urban Dynamics
3.3. LULC Probability Transitions
3.4. MLP Simulation of Transition Potential Changes
3.5. LULC Change Analysis
3.6. Prediction of LULC Dynamics
3.7. Spatial Trends of LULC Changes
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Satellite/ Sensor | Spatial Resolution | Path/Raw | Date Acquired | Product Type | Cloud Cover |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Landsat 7 ETM+ | 30 m | 159/044 | 21 January 2000 | L1TP | 0.00% |
Landsat 7 ETM+ | 30 m | 159/044 | 17 February 2000 | L1TP | 0.00% |
Landsat 8 OLI-TIRS | 30 m | 159/44 | 5 December 2000 | L1TP | 0.00% |
Parameter | Outcome |
---|---|
Input layer neurons | 5 |
Hidden layer neurons | 5 |
Output layer neurons | 2 |
Requested samples per class | 6418 |
Final learning rate | 0.0005 |
Momentum factor | 0.5 |
Sigmoid constant | 1 |
Acceptable RMS | 0.01 |
Iterations | 10,000 |
Training RMS | 0.2575 |
Testing RMS | 0.254 |
Accuracy rate | 93.67% |
Skill measure | 0.873 |
Model | Accuracy (%) | Skill Measure | Influence Order |
---|---|---|---|
With all variables | 93.67 | 0.8733 | N/A |
Var. 1 constant | 93.48 | 0.8696 | 4 |
Var. 2 constant | 79.47 | 0.5893 | 2 |
Var. 3 constant | 93.42 | 0.8683 | 3 |
Var. 4 constant | 93.65 | 0.8730 | 5 (least influential) |
Var. 5 constant | 72.3 | 0.4460 | 1 (most influential) |
Var. 6 constant | 81.4 | 0.8321 | 6 |
Model | Variables Included | Accuracy (%) | Skill Measure |
---|---|---|---|
With all variables | All variables | 93.67 | 0.8733 |
Step 1: var. [4] constant | [1,2,3,5,6] | 93.65 | 0.8731 |
Step 2: var. [1,4] constant | [2,3,5,6] | 93.51 | 0.8702 |
Step 3: var. [4,1,3] constant | [2,5,6] | 93.31 | 0.8661 |
Step 4: var. [4,1,3,2] constant | [5,6] | 79.95 | 0.599 |
Step 5: var. [4,1,3,2,5] constant | [6] | 86.33 | 0.644 |
LULC Type | Area in 2010 (ha) | Area in 2020 (ha) | Change (2010–2020) |
---|---|---|---|
Vegetation | 1118.52 | 1068.48 | −50.04 |
Urban | 6040.62 | 10,188.85 | 4148.23 |
Bare land | 12,954.51 | 9525.06 | −3429.45 |
Desert | 36,221.35 | 35,552.61 | −668.74 |
LULC Type | Area in 2020 (ha) | Area in 2030 (ha) | Change (2020–2030) |
Vegetation | 1068.48 | 1002.33 | −66.15 |
Urban | 10,188.85 | 14,322.12 | 4133.27 |
Bare land | 9525.06 | 8600.56 | −924.5 |
Desert | 35,552.61 | 32409.99 | −3142.62 |
Changes in LULC between 2030 and 2040 | |||
LULC type | Area in 2030 (ha) | Area in 2040 (ha) | Change (2030–2040) |
Vegetation | 1002.33 | 938.25 | −64.08 |
Urban | 10,322.12 | 18,355.13 | 8033.01 |
Bare land | 8600.56 | 7155.5 | −1445.06 |
Desert | 32,409.99 | 29,886.12 | −2523.87 |
Changes in LULC between 2040 and2050 | |||
LULC type | Area in 2040 (ha) | Area in 2050 (ha) | Change (2020–2050) |
Vegetation | 938.25 | 878.19 | −60.06 |
Urban | 18,355.13 | 21,396.12 | 3040.99 |
Bare land | 7155.5 | 6259 | −896.5 |
Desert | 29,886.12 | 27,801.69 | −2084.43 |
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Mansour, S.; Alahmadi, M.; Atkinson, P.M.; Dewan, A. Forecasting of Built-Up Land Expansion in a Desert Urban Environment. Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 2037. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14092037
Mansour S, Alahmadi M, Atkinson PM, Dewan A. Forecasting of Built-Up Land Expansion in a Desert Urban Environment. Remote Sensing. 2022; 14(9):2037. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14092037
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour, Shawky, Mohammed Alahmadi, Peter M. Atkinson, and Ashraf Dewan. 2022. "Forecasting of Built-Up Land Expansion in a Desert Urban Environment" Remote Sensing 14, no. 9: 2037. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14092037