Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Marine Heatwaves in the Black Sea
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Description of the Study Area
2.2. Datasets
2.3. SST Trend and Interannual Variability
2.4. Marine Heatwave (MHW) Calculations
3. Results
3.1. SST Climatology, Trends, and Interannual Variability
3.2. Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) Main Characteristics and Trends
3.3. Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) Temporal Variation
3.4. Relations between MHW and ENSO
3.5. MHW Event Examples
3.5.1. The Longest MHW Event
3.5.2. The Most Intense MHW Event
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Rubakina, V.A.; Kubryakov, A.A.; Stanichny, S.V. Seasonal variability of the diurnal cycle of the black sea surface temperature from the SEVIRI satellite measurements. Phys. Oceanogr. 2019, 26, 157–169. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ginzburg, A.I.; Kostianoy, A.G.; Sheremet, N.A. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea surface temperature as revealed from satellite data (1982–2000). J. Mar. Syst. 2004, 52, 33–50. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Marx, W.; Haunschild, R.; Bornmann, L. Heat waves: A hot topic in climate change research. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2021, 146, 781–800. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Pörtner, H.-O.; Roberts, D.C.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Tignor, M.; Poloczanska, E.; Mintenbeck, K.; Alegría, A.; Nicolai, M.; Okem, A.; et al. (Eds.) The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate; IPCC: Paris, France, 2019. [Google Scholar]
- Hobday, A.J.; Alexander, L.V.; Perkins, S.E.; Smale, D.A.; Straub, S.C.; Oliver, E.C.J.; Benthuysen, J.A.; Burrows, M.T.; Donat, M.G.; Feng, M.; et al. A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Prog. Oceanogr. 2016, 141, 227–238. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Hobday, A.J.; Oliver, E.C.J.; Sen Gupta, A.; Benthuysen, J.A.; Burrows, M.T.; Donat, M.G.; Holbrook, N.J.; Moore, P.J.; Thomsen, M.S.; Wernberg, T.; et al. Categorizing and naming marine heatwaves. Oceanography 2018, 31, 162–173. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Pranovi, F.; Monti, M.A.; Brigolin, D.; Zucchetta, M. The influence of the spatial scale on the fishery landings-SST relationship. Front. Mar. Sci. 2016, 3, 143. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Garrabou, J.; Coma, R.; Bensoussan, N.; Bally, M.; Chevaldonné, P.; Cigliano, M.; Diaz, D.; Harmelin, J.G.; Gambi, M.C.; Kersting, D.K.; et al. Mass mortality in Northwestern Mediterranean rocky benthic communities: Effects of the 2003 heat wave. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2009, 15, 1090–1103. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Marbà, N.; Duarte, C.M. Mediterranean warming triggers seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) shoot mortality. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2010, 16, 2366–2375. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mohamed, B.; Nilsen, F.; Skogseth, R. Marine Heatwaves Characteristics in the Barents Sea Based on High Resolution Satellite Data (1982–2020). Front. Mar. Sci. 2022, 9, 4436. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Oliver, E.C.J.J.; Donat, M.G.; Burrows, M.T.; Moore, P.J.; Smale, D.A.; Alexander, L.V.; Benthuysen, J.A.; Feng, M.; Sen Gupta, A.; Hobday, A.J.; et al. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nat. Commun. 2018, 9, 1324. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Colloca, F.; Demirel, N.; Morello, E.B.; Salihoglu, B.; Arkin, S.S.; Akoglu, E.; Fach, B.A. Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions. Front. Mar. Sci. 2017, 4, 339. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Sakalli, A.; Başusta, N. Sea surface temperature change in the Black Sea under climate change: A simulation of the sea surface temperature up to 2100. Int. J. Climatol. 2018, 38, 4687–4698. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shapiro, G.I.; Aleynik, D.L.; Mee, L.D. Long term trends in the sea surface temperature of the Black Sea. Ocean Sci 2010, 6, 491–501. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Buongiorno Nardelli, B.; Colella, S.; Santoleri, R.; Guarracino, M.; Kholod, A. A re-analysis of Black Sea surface temperature. J. Mar. Syst. 2010, 79, 50–64. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kubryakov, A.A.; Stanichny, S.V.; Zatsepin, A.G.; Kremenetskiy, V.V. Long-term variations of the Black Sea dynamics and their impact on the marine ecosystem. J. Mar. Syst. 2016, 163, 80–94. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Akpinar, A.; Fach, B.A.; Oguz, T. Observing the subsurface thermal signature of the Black Sea cold intermediate layer with Argo profiling floats. Deep Sea Res. Part I Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 2017, 124, 140–152. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Oguz, T.; Gilbert, D. Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960–2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations. Deep Sea Res. Part I Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 2007, 54, 220–242. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Oguz, T.; Cokacar, T.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.; Ducklow, H.W. Climatic warming and accompanying changes in the ecological regime of the Black Sea during 1990s. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 2003, 17, 1088. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Oguz, T.; Dippner, J.W.; Kaymaz, Z. Climatic regulation of the Black Sea hydro-meteorological and ecological properties at interannual-to-decadal time scales. J. Mar. Syst. 2006, 60, 235–254. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Polonsky, A.; Voskresenskaya, E.; Belokopytov, V. Variability of Northwestern Black Sea Hydrography and River Discharges as Part of Global Ocean-Atmosphere Fluctuations. Sensit. Chang. Black Sea Balt. Sea North Sea 1997, 11–24. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Özsoy, E.; Ünlüata, Ü. Oceanography of the Black Sea: A review of some recent results. Earth-Sci. Rev. 1997, 42, 231–272. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Stanev, E.V.; Peneva, E.; Chtirkova, B. Climate Change and Regional Ocean Water Mass Disappearance: Case of the Black Sea. J. Geophys. Res. Ocean. 2019, 124, 4803–4819. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ciliberti, S.A.; Jansen, E.; Coppini, G.; Peneva, E.; Azevedo, D.; Causio, S.; Stefanizzi, L.; Creti’, S.; Lecci, R.; Lima, L.; et al. The Black Sea Physics Analysis and Forecasting System within the Framework of the Copernicus Marine Service. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10, 48. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Oguz, T.; Latun, V.S.; Latif, M.A.; Vladimirov, V.V.; Sur, H.I.; Markov, A.A.; Özsoy, E.; Kotovshchikov, B.B.; Eremeev, V.V.; Ünlüata, Ü. Circulation in the surface and intermediate layers of the Black Sea. Deep Sea Res. Part I Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 1993, 40, 1597–1612. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lima, L.; Ciliberti, S.A.; Aydoğdu, A.; Masina, S.; Escudier, R.; Cipollone, A.; Azevedo, D.; Causio, S.; Peneva, E.; Lecci, R.; et al. Climate Signals in the Black Sea from a Multidecadal Eddy-Resolving Reanalysis. Front. Mar. Sci. 2021, 1214. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kara, A.B.; Helber, R.W.; Boyer, T.P.; Elsner, J.B. Mixed layer depth in the Aegean, Marmara, Black and Azov Seas: Part I: General features. J. Mar. Syst. 2009, 78, S169–S180. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Volkov, D.L.; Landerer, F.W. Internal and external forcing of sea level variability in the Black Sea. Clim. Dyn. 2015, 45, 2633–2646. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Oguz, T.; Aubrey, D.G.; Latun, V.S.; Demirov, E.; Koveshnikov, L.; Sur, H.I.; Diaconu, V.; Besiktepe, S.; Duman, M.; Limeburner, R.; et al. Mesoscale circulation and thermohaline structure of the Black Sea observed during HydroBlack’91. Deep Sea Res. Part I Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 1994, 41, 603–628. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Rachev, N.H.; Stanev, E.V. Eddy Processes in Semienclosed Seas: A Case Study for the Black Sea. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 1997, 27, 1581–1601. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Capet, A.; Barth, A.; Beckers, J.M.; Marilaure, G. Interannual variability of Black Sea’s hydrodynamics and connection to atmospheric patterns. Deep Sea Res. Part II Top. Stud. Oceanogr. 2012, 77–80, 128–142. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Staneva, J.V.; Dietrich, D.E.; Stanev, E.V.; Bowman, M.J. Rim current and coastal eddy mechanisms in an eddy-resolving Black Sea general circulation model. J. Mar. Syst. 2001, 31, 137–157. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Ciliberti, S.A.; Grégoire, M.; Staneva, J.; Palazov, A.; Coppini, G.; Lecci, R.; Peneva, E.; Matreata, M.; Marinova, V.; Masina, S.; et al. Monitoring and Forecasting the Ocean State and Biogeochemical Processes in the Black Sea: Recent Developments in the Copernicus Marine Service. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2021, 9, 1146. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Korotaev, G.; Oguz, T.; Nikiforov, A.; Koblinsky, C. Seasonal, interannual, and mesoscale variability of the Black Sea upper layer circulation derived from altimeter data. J. Geophys. Res. Ocean. 2003, 108, 3122. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Korotaev, G.K.; Oguz, T.; Dorofeyev, V.L.; Demyshev, S.G.; Kubryakov, A.I.; Ratner, Y.B. Development of Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system. Ocean Sci. 2011, 7, 629–649. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Merchant, C.J.; Embury, O.; Bulgin, C.E.; Block, T.; Corlett, G.K.; Fiedler, E.; Good, S.A.; Mittaz, J.; Rayner, N.A.; Berry, D.; et al. Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1981 for climate applications. Sci. Data 2019, 6, 223. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Pisano, A.; Buongiorno Nardelli, B.; Tronconi, C.; Santoleri, R. The new Mediterranean optimally interpolated pathfinder AVHRR SST Dataset (1982–2012). Remote Sens. Environ. 2016, 176, 107–116. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Emery, W.J.; Thomson, R.E. Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography; Newnes: Oxford, UK, 1997; ISBN 0080314341. [Google Scholar]
- Hannachi, A.; Jolliffe, I.T.; Stephenson, D.B. Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: A review. Int. J. Climatol. 2007, 27, 1119–1152. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Menna, M.; Gačić, M.; Martellucci, R.; Notarstefano, G.; Fedele, G.; Mauri, E.; Gerin, R.; Poulain, P.-M. Climatic, Decadal, and Interannual Variability in the Upper Layer of the Mediterranean Sea Using Remotely Sensed and In-Situ Data. Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 1322. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gupta, N.; Bhaskaran, P.K.; Dash, M.K. Dipole behaviour in maximum significant wave height over the Southern Indian Ocean. Int. J. Climatol. 2017, 37, 4925–4937. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Von Storch, H.; Zwiers, F.W. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 1999. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Preisendorfer, R.W. Principal component analysis in meteorology and oceanography. Princ. Compon. Anal. Meteorol. Oceanogr. 1988, 17, 425. [Google Scholar]
- Chatfield, C.; Collins, A.J. Introduction to Multivariate Analysis; Springer: New York, NY, USA, 1980. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mohamed, B.; Mohamed, A.; Alam El-Din, K.; Nagy, H.; Elsherbiny, A. Sea level changes and vertical land motion from altimetry and tide gauges in the Southern Levantine Basin. J. Geodyn. 2019, 128, 1–10. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Skliris, N.; Sofianos, S.; Gkanasos, A.; Mantziafou, A.; Vervatis, V.; Axaopoulos, P.; Lascaratos, A. Decadal scale variability of sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to atmospheric variability. Ocean Dyn. 2012, 62, 13–30. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mohamed, B.; Skliris, N. Steric and atmospheric contributions to interannual sea level variability in the eastern mediterranean sea over 1993–2019. Oceanologia 2022, 64, 50–62. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ercha, A.; Zhang, D.; Ridley, A.J.; Xiao, Z.; Hao, Y. A global model: Empirical orthogonal function analysis of total electron content 1999–2009 data. J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys. 2012, 117, A03328. [Google Scholar]
- Wilks, D.S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences; Academic Press: New York, NY, USA, 2011; ISBN 0123850223. [Google Scholar]
- Hamed, K.H.; Ramachandra Rao, A. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J. Hydrol. 1998, 204, 182–196. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Jolliffe, I.T.; Uddin, M.; Vines, S.K. Simplified EOFs three alternatives to rotation. Clim. Res. 2002, 20, 271–279. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Krzanowski, W.J. Principles of Multivariate Analysis: A User’s Perspective, 2nd ed.; Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK, 2000. [Google Scholar]
- James, E.; Overland, R.W. Preisendorfer A Significance Test for Principal Components Applied to a Cyclone Climatology. Mon. Weather Rev. 1982, 110, 1–4. [Google Scholar]
- Wang, F.; Shao, W.; Yu, H.; Kan, G.; He, X.; Zhang, D.; Ren, M.; Wang, G. Re-evaluation of the Power of the Mann-Kendall Test for Detecting Monotonic Trends in Hydrometeorological Time Series. Front. Earth Sci. 2020, 8, 14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhao, Z.; Marin, M. A MATLAB toolbox to detect and analyze marine heatwaves. J. Open Source Softw. 2019, 4, 1124. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ibrahim, O.; Mohamed, B.; Nagy, H. Spatial variability and trends of marine heat waves in the eastern mediterranean sea over 39 years. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2021, 9, 643. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mohamed, B.; Nagy, H.; Ibrahim, O. Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends of Marine Heat Waves in the Red Sea over 38 Years. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2021, 9, 842. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Darmaraki, S.; Somot, S.; Sevault, F.; Nabat, P.; Cabos Narvaez, W.D.; Cavicchia, L.; Djurdjevic, V.; Li, L.; Sannino, G.; Sein, D.V. Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea. Clim. Dyn. 2019, 53, 1371–1392. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Gunduz, M.; Özsoy, E.; Hordoir, R. A model of Black Sea circulation with strait exchange (2008–2018). Geosci. Model Dev. 2020, 13, 121–138. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Toderascu, R.; Rusu, E. Evaluation of the Circulation Patterns in the Black Sea Using Remotely Sensed and in Situ Measurements. Int. J. Geosci. 2013, 4, 1009–1017. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. |
© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Mohamed, B.; Ibrahim, O.; Nagy, H. Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Marine Heatwaves in the Black Sea. Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 2383. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14102383
Mohamed B, Ibrahim O, Nagy H. Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Marine Heatwaves in the Black Sea. Remote Sensing. 2022; 14(10):2383. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14102383
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed, Bayoumy, Omneya Ibrahim, and Hazem Nagy. 2022. "Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Marine Heatwaves in the Black Sea" Remote Sensing 14, no. 10: 2383. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14102383