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Geographic Distribution of Desert Locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe Using Multiple Sources of Remote-Sensing Data

by 1,2,3,4, 1,3,4,5,*, 1,2,4, 1,2,3, 3, 3 and 3
1
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
2
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
3
Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
4
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
5
Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Remote Sens. 2020, 12(21), 3593; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12213593
Received: 4 October 2020 / Revised: 23 October 2020 / Accepted: 27 October 2020 / Published: 2 November 2020
In history, every occurrence of a desert locust plague has brought a devastating blow to local agriculture. Analyses of the potential geographic distribution and migration paths of desert locusts can be used to better monitor and provide early warnings about desert locust outbreaks. By using environmental data from multiple remote-sensing data sources, we simulate the potential habitats of desert locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe in this study using a logistic regression model that was developed based on desert locust monitoring records. The logistic regression model showed high accuracy, with an average training area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.84 and a kappa coefficient of 0.75. Our analysis indicated that the temperature and leaf area index (LAI) play important roles in shaping the spatial distribution of desert locusts. A model analysis based on data for six environmental variables over the past 15 years predicted that the potential habitats of desert locust present a periodic movement pattern between 40°N and 30°S latitude. The area of the potential desert locust habitat reached a maximum in July, with a suitable area exceeding 2.77 × 107 km2 and located entirely between 0°N and 40°N in Asia-Europe and Africa. In December, the potential distribution of desert locusts reached its minimum area at 0.68 × 107 km2 and was located between 30°N and 30°S in Asia and Africa. According to the model estimates, desert locust-prone areas are distributed in northern Ethiopia, South Sudan, northwestern Kenya, the southern Arabian Peninsula, the border area between India and Pakistan, and the southern Indian Peninsula. In addition, desert locusts were predicted to migrate from east to west between these areas and in Africa between 10°N and 17°N. Countries in these areas should closely monitor desert locust populations and respond rapidly. View Full-Text
Keywords: potential geographic distribution; logistic regression model; desert locust; migration path analysis potential geographic distribution; logistic regression model; desert locust; migration path analysis
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MDPI and ACS Style

Chen, C.; Qian, J.; Chen, X.; Hu, Z.; Sun, J.; Wei, S.; Xu, K. Geographic Distribution of Desert Locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe Using Multiple Sources of Remote-Sensing Data. Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 3593. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12213593

AMA Style

Chen C, Qian J, Chen X, Hu Z, Sun J, Wei S, Xu K. Geographic Distribution of Desert Locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe Using Multiple Sources of Remote-Sensing Data. Remote Sensing. 2020; 12(21):3593. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12213593

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chen, Chaoliang, Jing Qian, Xi Chen, Zengyun Hu, Jiayu Sun, Shujie Wei, and Kaibin Xu. 2020. "Geographic Distribution of Desert Locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe Using Multiple Sources of Remote-Sensing Data" Remote Sensing 12, no. 21: 3593. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12213593

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