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Open AccessArticle

A Novel Grey Wave Method for Predicting Total Chinese Trade Volume

by Kedong Yin 1,2, Danning Lu 1 and Xuemei Li 1,2,*
1
School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2
Ocean Development Research Institute, Major Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2017, 9(12), 2367; https://doi.org/10.3390/su9122367
Received: 7 November 2017 / Revised: 13 December 2017 / Accepted: 15 December 2017 / Published: 18 December 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Transition from China-Made to China-Innovation )
The total trade volume of a country is an important way of appraising its international trade situation. A prediction based on trade volume will help enterprises arrange production efficiently and promote the sustainability of the international trade. Because the total Chinese trade volume fluctuates over time, this paper proposes a Grey wave forecasting model with a Hodrick–Prescott filter (HP filter) to forecast it. This novel model first parses time series into long-term trend and short-term cycle. Second, the model uses a general GM (1,1) to predict the trend term and the Grey wave forecasting model to predict the cycle term. Empirical analysis shows that the improved Grey wave prediction method provides a much more accurate forecast than the basic Grey wave prediction method, achieving better prediction results than autoregressive moving average model (ARMA). View Full-Text
Keywords: Grey wave forecasting; HP filter; trade sustainability; tendency component Grey wave forecasting; HP filter; trade sustainability; tendency component
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Yin, K.; Lu, D.; Li, X. A Novel Grey Wave Method for Predicting Total Chinese Trade Volume. Sustainability 2017, 9, 2367.

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