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Sustainability 2017, 9(12), 2342;

Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China
Collaborative Innovation Center of Urban-Rural Coordination Development, Henan 450046, China
Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH 42240, USA
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USA
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 8 November 2017 / Revised: 9 December 2017 / Accepted: 13 December 2017 / Published: 15 December 2017
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Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development. View Full-Text
Keywords: carbon emissions; energy consumption; STIRPAT model; driving factors; scenario predictions carbon emissions; energy consumption; STIRPAT model; driving factors; scenario predictions

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Zhang, P.; He, J.; Hong, X.; Zhang, W.; Qin, C.; Pang, B.; Li, Y.; Liu, Y. Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China. Sustainability 2017, 9, 2342.

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