The Impact of Urban–Rural Integrated Development on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity: Empirical Evidence from China

Urban–rural integration, as a pivotal strategy for reshaping the relationship between cities and the countryside and promoting balanced regional development in the current era, carries considerable weight for the green transition of agricultural systems. This study utilizes panel data from 31 Chinese provincial units over the 2011–2023 period to construct a four-dimensional (economic, social, spatial, and ecological) assessment framework for urban–rural integration. It then applies the SBM-GML model to estimate agricultural green total factor productivity and systematically investigates the impact and underlying mechanisms of integration on that productivity. The principal findings are as follows: (1) Urban–rural integration significantly boosts agricultural green total factor productivity, and this outcome remains robust after a variety of sensitivity checks and corrections for potential endogeneity. (2) Mechanism tests further reveal that the primary conduits through which such integration raises AGTFP are the upgrading of human capital and the proliferation of agricultural socialized services. (3) Analysis of moderating effects indicates that both innovation in agricultural science and technology and government fiscal support for farming positively reinforce the facilitative impact of urban–rural integration on agricultural green total factor productivity. (4) Results from heterogeneity analysis suggest that the green productivity effect of such integration is strongest in major grain-producing areas, weaker in major grain-selling areas, and not statistically detectable in grain production–marketing balance regions.