Impact and Mechanism of Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones on Green Total Factor Productivity

This study examines whether China’s Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones (ECDZs) promote urban green total factor productivity (GTFP). Using panel data for 282 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2022, when six batches of policy pilots were implemented, the paper employs a super-efficiency SBM model to estimate GTFP and a difference-in-differences (DID) model to identify the policy effects. The results indicate that ECDZs significantly improve urban GTFP. Specifically, the baseline estimates show that the implementation of ECDZs increases GTFP by approximately 6.52% relative to the sample means. Potential transmission channels further show that technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading are important channels through which ECDZs promote green productivity growth. In addition, significant regional and city-type heterogeneity is observed. The positive policy effects are more pronounced in central regions and in non-resource-based cities, whereas the effects are relatively weak in eastern regions, western regions, and resource-based cities. These findings suggest that differences in economic foundations, industrial structures, and innovation capacities may influence the effectiveness of ECDZs. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence on the green development effects of ECDZs and offers policy implications for improving differentiated environmental governance and promoting high-quality sustainable development in China.