Green Innovation and Carbon Emission Performance: A Nonlinear Perspective on the Path of Low-Carbon Transition

Green technology innovation is widely recognized as a crucial driver for combating environmental pollution and achieving carbon reduction goals. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning 2006 to 2021, this study aims to examine the impact of green technology innovation (GTI) on carbon emission performance (CEP). The results indicate that (1) a significant U-shaped relationship exists between green technology innovation and carbon emission performance. (2) Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effect is more pronounced in regions with higher levels of human capital, stronger macro-control, and a smaller urban–rural income gap. (3) Mechanism tests reveal that green technology innovation significantly improves carbon emission performance by driving the decarbonization of energy consumption structure. Furthermore, energy intensity negatively moderates the U-shaped relationship, leading to an “energy rebound effect”. (4) Spatial spillover analysis indicates that green technology innovation has a U-shaped impact on the carbon emission performance of adjacent regions. The findings of this study provide empirical evidence of and new perspectives on the crucial role of green innovation in achieving low-carbon sustainable development.