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Sustainability
Volume 18
Issue 10
10.3390/su18104777
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This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

Mismatches and Pressure Evolution of Agricultural Water and Land Resources Under Continuous Water Footprint Expansion: A Case Study of Aksu in Arid Northwest China

by
Cai Ren
1,2,
Ji Zhang
3,
Jiawen Yu
4,
Yi Xiao
1,
Pei Zhang
2,* and
Aihua Long
1,4,*
1
College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
2
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
3
School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
4
College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2026, 18(10), 4777; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18104777 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 22 April 2026 / Revised: 8 May 2026 / Accepted: 9 May 2026 / Published: 11 May 2026
Versions Notes

Abstract

Under high-intensity agricultural development, understanding the spatial allocation and scarcity pressure of agricultural water and land resources is critical for regional sustainability. Using water footprint and remote sensing data in Aksu, this study applies the spatial mismatch index, Gini coefficient, and scarcity indices to assess water–land matching and pressure dynamics and traces the migration of pressure center of gravity using the standard deviation ellipse model. The results show: (1) Water footprint and irrigated area increased over 2000–2020, with matching Gini coefficient fluctuating upward and severe mismatches in the northeast and southwest. (2) Resource scarcity indices fluctuated significantly; relative water scarcity peaked in 2015, and both pressure centers shifted eastward. (3) Economic factors are the primary drivers of water footprint and irrigated area changes, while water–land pressure correlates strongly with economic and production conditions. We conclude that Aksu’s water–land matching underwent a phased transition from relative balance to significant imbalance and then to gradual improvement, with 2015 as the critical turning point; the pressure centers migrated eastward (but at different distances); and economic factors dominate this evolution. These findings provide a scientific basis for differentiated waterland regulation in arid oasis agriculture.
Keywords: water footprint; water and land resources; matching characteristics; scarcity pressure; arid regions water footprint; water and land resources; matching characteristics; scarcity pressure; arid regions

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MDPI and ACS Style

Ren, C.; Zhang, J.; Yu, J.; Xiao, Y.; Zhang, P.; Long, A. Mismatches and Pressure Evolution of Agricultural Water and Land Resources Under Continuous Water Footprint Expansion: A Case Study of Aksu in Arid Northwest China. Sustainability 2026, 18, 4777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18104777

AMA Style

Ren C, Zhang J, Yu J, Xiao Y, Zhang P, Long A. Mismatches and Pressure Evolution of Agricultural Water and Land Resources Under Continuous Water Footprint Expansion: A Case Study of Aksu in Arid Northwest China. Sustainability. 2026; 18(10):4777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18104777

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ren, Cai, Ji Zhang, Jiawen Yu, Yi Xiao, Pei Zhang, and Aihua Long. 2026. "Mismatches and Pressure Evolution of Agricultural Water and Land Resources Under Continuous Water Footprint Expansion: A Case Study of Aksu in Arid Northwest China" Sustainability 18, no. 10: 4777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18104777

APA Style

Ren, C., Zhang, J., Yu, J., Xiao, Y., Zhang, P., & Long, A. (2026). Mismatches and Pressure Evolution of Agricultural Water and Land Resources Under Continuous Water Footprint Expansion: A Case Study of Aksu in Arid Northwest China. Sustainability, 18(10), 4777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18104777

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