Critical Success Factors for Digitalisation in the Circular Economy Transition for Agri-Food SMEs: An SF-AHP Approach

While the circular economy offers a new perspective for achieving sustainability goals, digital technologies have become key enablers of this transformation. However, few studies in the literature address the identification and prioritisation of critical success factors for digitalisation that support the transition to a circular economy, particularly for agri-food SMEs operating in developing countries. This study proposes an integrated PESTEL-based and Spherical Fuzzy AHP (SF-AHP) framework to identify and prioritise critical success factors for digitalisation in the circular economy transition of agri-food SMEs. First, the literature-derived critical success factors were identified and structured according to the PESTEL framework. The TOE framework was then employed as a theoretical lens to interpret these factors at the firm level in terms of technological, organisational, and environmental dimensions. A five-member expert panel evaluated the factors in the context of Türkiye, and their relative importance was analysed using a weighted SF-AHP approach. Quantitative results reveal that ‘Data analytics to boost agricultural output’ is the most significant factor (w = 0.128), followed by ‘High investment costs’ (w = 0.123) and ‘Efficient technology for the CE process’ (w = 0.114). To ensure the robustness of the findings, a comparative analysis was performed; the results revealed a strong alignment between SF-AHP and Fuzzy AHP (r = 0.986), as well as a high degree of consistency with AHP (r = 0.910), validating the methodological stability of the proposed framework. This study contributes to the identification of strategic priorities for digitalisation in the transition to a circular economy among agri-food SMEs in developing countries and provides policymakers and practitioners with a guiding framework.