Can Carbon Neutrality Promote Green and Sustainable Urban Development from an Environmental Sociology Perspective? Evidence from China

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global climate change and rapid urbanisation, carbon-neutral urban governance and sustainable urban development have become core issues of concern to the international community. As the world’s largest carbon emitter, Chinese cities shoulder the significant responsibility of achieving the “dual-carbon” goal. This study utilised a unique panel dataset of 300 cities in China from 2015 to 2022 and proposed a multi-dimensional analytical framework from the perspective of environmental sociology. This paper empirically examines the impact mechanism of carbon-neutral governance on urban sustainable development and its regional heterogeneity by using this framework. The research findings are as follows: First, carbon-neutral governance has a significant promoting effect on the sustainable development of cities. Secondly, technological input (the number of scientific researchers) plays a significant mediating role between carbon-neutral governance and sustainable development, indicating that technology diffusion is an important way for the transmission of policy effects. Thirdly, the analysis of regional heterogeneity indicates that due to policy inclination and resource concentration, western cities contribute the most to sustainable development, followed by eastern cities, and central cities contribute the least to sustainable development. The eastern region was identified as the second weakest and the central region as the weakest. This research provides theoretical and empirical basis for differentiated formulation of carbon neutrality policies, strengthening scientific and technological support, and optimising regional collaborative governance.

1. Introduction

In the context of the dual challenges posed by global climate change and accelerated urbanisation, the pursuit of carbon-neutral governance and sustainable urban development has emerged as a matter of strategic concern for the international community [1]. The Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) clearly indicates that global warming has triggered a chain reaction of extreme weather, sea level rise, and ecosystem degradation, forcing countries to accelerate low-carbon transformation. As one of the world’s largest carbon emitters, China is responsible for 28% of global carbon emissions. The country’s “dual-carbon” target is pursued through a distinctive and novel approach [2]. The State Council promulgated the “Opinions on the Complete and Accurate Implementation of the New Development Philosophy and the Pursuit of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality”, which explicitly advocated the optimisation of energy structures, the promotion of industrial upgrading, and the enhancement of scientific and technological innovation [3]. The “Opinions of the State Council on the Complete and Accurate Implementation of the New Development Concept and the Work of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality” (2021) unequivocally stated that the green transformation should be achieved through the optimisation of energy structures, the promotion of industrial upgrading, and the strengthening of technological innovation [4].

The People’s Republic of China has elevated the “dual-carbon” objective to a national strategy, relying on a policy system that integrates industrial restructuring, renewable energy substitution, and technological innovation [5]. This policy system is characterised by a policy intensity and system integration that far exceeds that of most developed countries. The approach adopted by China in its endeavour to achieve carbon neutrality is fundamentally different from those of Europe and the United States. Developed countries are typified by a “natural peak–gradual neutralisation” trajectory, and their industrialisation process coincides with the natural inflexion point of carbon emissions, allowing sufficient time for the completion of energy substitution [6]. Conversely, China is tasked with attaining its “dual-carbon” objective within a span of 30 years, a feat it must achieve by balancing economic growth with the mounting pressure to reduce emissions. The specificity of this “time–space compression” is attributable to three factors: firstly, the high coal dependence of the energy mix; secondly, the significantly higher share of manufacturing in GDP than in post-industrialised countries; and thirdly, the difficulty of policy implementation, exacerbated by the unevenness of regional development [7].

The concept of carbon neutrality for sustainable urban linkages has been analysed from the perspectives of economics and management, with a focus on dimensions such as the optimisation of market mechanisms or the diffusion of technological innovations. Nevertheless, this theoretical framework is unable to account for the substantial regional variations in policy outcomes observed under analogous technological conditions. In this new era, the process of achieving carbon neutrality is becoming increasingly socially embedded. On the one hand, the promotion of low-carbon technologies relies on the transformation of public cognition and behavioural patterns [8]. On the other hand, the distribution of environmental rights and interests and the issue of spatial justice profoundly affect the legitimacy of the policy [9]. The integration of an environmental sociology perspective has the potential to address the oversight of “social processes” in conventional analyses by deconstructing the synergistic relationship between carbon neutrality and sustainable urban development, elucidating the mediating role of scientific and technological inputs in carbon neutrality and sustainable urban development, and demonstrating the impact of carbon neutrality on sustainable urban development. By deconstructing the synergistic relationship between carbon neutrality and sustainable urban development, revealing the mediating role of scientific and technological inputs in carbon neutrality on sustainable urban development, and demonstrating regional differences in the effects of carbon neutrality governance on sustainable urban development [10], this perspective provides a more profound explanatory framework for understanding the complex interactions between carbon neutrality and sustainable urban development, and also opens up new paths to build an inclusive climate governance system.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Relevant Studies on Carbon-Neutral Governance

In the context of international academic discourse on the subject of carbon-neutral governance, particular emphasis has been placed on the design of market mechanisms, the diffusion of technological innovations, and transnational cooperation. European and American studies have emphasised the incentive effect of carbon pricing instruments on emission reduction and the driving effect of cost reductions in renewable energy technologies on the energy transition [11,12]. Climate policy assessment models are constructed around the neoclassical economics paradigm, exploring the applicability of quantitative carbon taxes, green subsidies, and other tools in different economies. No issues [13]. The aforementioned studies are implicitly oriented towards the concept of “techno-economic determinism”, which reduces the concept of carbon neutrality to a single issue of emission data. Furthermore, these studies neglect to consider the impact of institutions and culture on the implementation of policy.

The research on carbon-neutral governance in China demonstrates a distinct policy and practice orientation, emphasising institutional innovation and the exploration of pathways to achieve the “dual-carbon” objective. The focus of scholars in this field is on the hierarchical transmission mechanism of the “1 + N” policy system, with the aim of revealing how policy tools such as central environmental protection inspections and green financial reforms can break down the barriers of local protectionism and interests [14]. The study focuses on the problem of coal power dependence and the low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry. It emphasises the technical and economic feasibility of system solutions such as “integration of wind, water, fire, and storage”. It also demonstrates, through the case of the rise of the “new three” (photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy automobile) industries, that the national system has a significant impact on strategic emerging industries [15,16]. The present study will focus on the issue of regional heterogeneity, exploring the differences in resource endowment, industrial foundation and ecological carrying capacity between the East and the West. This will enrich the theory of “classified policy” and explore the differentiated carbon budget allocation and ecological compensation mechanism.

In the context of the new era, there has been a shift towards interdisciplinary integration in carbon-neutral governance theory. Despite the fact that traditional economic and managerial perspectives have elucidated the logic of cost–benefit and the trajectory of organisational change, it remains challenging to elucidate the disparities in the effectiveness of analogous policies across diverse communities or the social controversies emanating from technological solutions [17]. The field of environmental sociology offers novel insights into the analysis of power relations underpinning high-carbon infrastructure, utilising the concept of a “socio-technical system” to elucidate the paradox of environmental justice in the context of land acquisition for new energy projects [18]. Furthermore, it elucidates the distortions in the implementation of low-carbon policies at the grassroots level, including those pertaining to environmental inspections, by employing the theoretical framework of “practice theory”. A case in point is the discernible tension between “campaign governance” and regular governance in environmental protection inspections. Moreover, the study employs the conceptual framework of "political ecology" to deconstruct the complex process of constructing discourses around carbon neutrality. A salient point in the analysis is that the concept of "green growth" may serve to obscure the unequal distribution of the right to development [19, 20]. Focusing on the Chinese context, this perspective is able to penetrate the surface of “policy–technology” and ask how the “dual-carbon” goal interacts with national strategies such as rural revitalisation and common prosperity. This fills a gap in the cognitive understanding of traditional research, and provides a theoretical basis for building a more inclusive and adaptive climate governance paradigm.

2.2. Relevant Studies on Sustainable Urban Development

The exploration of sustainable urban development by the international academic community is rooted in the neo-liberal paradigm, which emphasises the dominant role of market mechanisms and technological innovation in optimising resources. The international community has explored the potential of Internet of Things (IoT)-driven smart grids and traffic management systems to achieve “precise sustainability” by focusing on the improvement of energy efficiency through smart city technologies [21]. The present study focuses on the theory of eco-modernisation, which establishes a correlation between environmental governance and economic growth [22]. The study puts forward a case for the reconstruction of urban competitiveness through the process of green industrial upgrading. Examining postcolonial perspectives illuminates the subjugated status of cities in the Global South within the ecological transition, with investments in green infrastructure serving to intensify spatial segregation [23]. Explorations of sustainable urban development have centred on the concept of political ecology, with the objective of deconstructing the underlying logic of power in the discourse surrounding “low-carbon cities”. It has been posited that the practice of carbon footprint accounting has been effectively detached from its original function as a technical instrument for the allocation of historical responsibility, particularly within the context of the developed world. In recent years, critical studies have shifted to the dimension of social justice, examining how “green gentrification” evicts low-income groups and the issue of environmental racism in climate-adaptation projects. However, these studies have yet to break out of the “economy–technology”-dominated narrative framework.

Research on sustainable urban development in China has demonstrated the presence of strong policy and practice characteristics, which closely echo the national ecological civilisation construction and “dual-carbon” strategic goals. Focusing on the new urbanisation strategy [13], academics have systematically explained the synergistic transformation path of population–land–industry and emphasised the rigid constraints of national spatial planning on the ecological security pattern. For example, the “three zones and three lines” delineation has been used to balance the intensity of development and the ecological carrying capacity. At the operational level, research focuses on the institutional innovation of low-carbon pilot cities, such as the design of the carbon emissions trading market in Shenzhen, the integration of sponge city technology in Xiong’an New Area, and the cross-domain governance mechanism in the Yangtze River Delta Eco-Green Integrated Development Demonstration Zone [24]. Existing research is still deficient in its theoretical response to the socio-ecological contradictions triggered by rapid urbanisation, as well as its practical response to the dilemma of the formalisation of citizens’ participation in the environment. This reflects the systematic neglect of the socio-cultural dimension in the “policy–technology” paradigm.

The theoretical map of sustainable urban development in the context of the new era has undergone a shift towards interdisciplinary integration. Despite the fact that traditional economic and managerial perspectives have clarified the techno-economic logic of green growth, it remains challenging to elucidate the tension between grassroots governance capacity and environmental awareness. The intervention of environmental sociology has opened up new paths, including the deconstruction of power relations in the process of urban metabolism through the dialectic of society and nature; the criticism of class division in the distribution of green space through the framework of environmental justice; and the analysis of class division based on “practice theory” [25,26]. The utilisation of the theoretical framework of “practice theory” is proposed as a means of investigating the sustainability of daily life. In the Chinese context, this perspective is able to analyse the tension between grassroots governance capacity and citizens’ environmental awareness, as well as the triangular game between the state, market, and society behind the creation of low-carbon communities. This kind of analysis, which reconstructs the social operation process by sustainability, provides theoretical possibilities for the construction of a truly inclusive paradigm of urban transformation.

2.3. Relevant Studies on Carbon Neutrality for Sustainable Urban Development

The concept of carbon-neutral governance is emerging as a pivotal mechanism for redefining the trajectory of sustainable urban development. From the perspective of environmental economics, the implementation of carbon reduction policies compels enterprises to optimise their energy structure and enhance resource efficiency through the mechanism of “cost internalisation” [27]. A study of 285 cities in China has indicated that a 10% reduction in carbon intensity is associated with a 4.2% improvement in the city’s air quality index (AQI). This finding is directly analogous to the energy mix indicator (LPG share), as clean energy substitution significantly reduces industrial carbon emissions (corresponding to the SDR indicator) [28]. Moreover, the IPCC (2022) underscores that the transformation of the energy mix (e.g., the augmentation of the share of renewable energy) constitutes a pivotal pathway for the mitigation of carbon emissions, and that the expansion of green space exerts a substantial influence on the ecosystem’s carbon sink capacity [29]. The “one million mu afforestation project” was a key initiative in Beijing’s environmental strategy, with the aim of increasing its forest coverage from 38.6% in 2012 to 44.4% by 2020. This initiative is expected to result in an annual increase of 2 million tonnes in carbon absorption, contributing to the city’s efforts to enhance its environmental sustainability [30]. This practice exemplifies the synergistic effect of EQSD indicators (e.g., green space per capita) and carbon-neutral management.

3. Theoretical Frameworks

3.1. Environmental Sociology

The concept of environmental sociology was first proposed by Riley E. Dunlap in 1970, and then spread rapidly in Europe, America, Japan, and Korea. The American scholar Schneeberger proposed the production treadmill theory [31], and the core theory is seen by Chinese scholars to be understanding the social mechanisms that generate environmental problems. In addition, the core of the ecological modernization theory proposed by Moore is the environmental change in social practice, institutional planning, social discourse, and policy discourse to protect the basis of social survival, which argues that science and technology not only lead to the creation of environmental problems but can also play a role in the governance and prevention of environmental problems [32], which also lays the theoretical foundation for the research of this paper.

3.2. The Impact of Carbon Neutrality on Sustainable Urban Development from an Environmental Sociology Perspective

Carbon neutrality is regarded as a pivotal instrument in the establishment of a socialist ecological civilisation that is distinctively Chinese. This concept is characterised by the notion of a “community of life between human beings and nature”. Environmental sociology, as a discipline encompassing both social and environmental governance, has emerged as a novel approach to examining the impact of carbon neutrality on sustainable urban development in the contemporary era [33]. The institutional design of China’s “dual-carbon” policy has been regarded by certain scholars as an illustration of the practice of ecological modernisation theory at the institutional level [34]. Ecological modernization theory posits that the pursuit of economic growth and environmental protection can be achieved through a collaborative effort involving technological innovation, institutional restructuring, and social transformation. The social constructivist perspective on the environment, in conjunction with the theory of environmental justice, provides a framework for understanding the social disparities that may arise from the implementation of a carbon-neutral policy, as well as the distribution of urban green space. The present paper thus proposes an analytical framework within the paradigm of environmental sociology (Figure 1).

3.3. Research Hypotheses

The promotion of low-carbon transportation has also been demonstrated to reduce urban transport carbon emissions (C40 Cities Climate Leadership Coalition, 2021). A case study by the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Coalition (2021) shows that Shenzhen City has reduced the carbon intensity of public transportation by 35% through a policy of full coverage of electric buses, while promoting sustainable living (corresponding to the SDS indicator) [35]. However, extant studies predominantly utilise a solitary indicator (e.g., carbon emission intensity) to assess the efficacy of carbon neutrality, thereby overlooking the multifaceted synergies that are present. To illustrate this point, let us consider the potential of advances in industrial wastewater treatment technology (SDR indicator) to concurrently reduce pollutant emissions and energy consumption. However, extant models have a tendency to compartmentalise the interaction between the environment and the economy [20]. In this paper, we propose a novel integration of an indicator system with the four categories of sustainable development goals (SDGs), namely, environment (EQSD), resources (SDR), manpower (SDM), and livelihood (SDS), to validate the systematic contribution of carbon-neutral governance. The following hypothesis is thus proposed in this paper:

H1: 

Carbon-neutral governance is conducive to green and sustainable urban development.

Science and technology inputs play a pivotal intermediary role in the causal chain between carbon neutrality and sustainable urban development. In the context of carbon-neutral governance, this mechanism is encapsulated within the sequence of “policy-driven technology-responsive structural optimisation” [36]. The 14th Five-Year Plan of the People’s Republic of China explicitly proposed an increase in financial support for clean energy technologies, with the intensity of investment in science and technology R&D reaching 2.4% in 2021, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from 2015 [37]. Research findings indicate that for every 1% increase in S&T spending, there is a 0.3% decrease in carbon intensity in urban areas [36]. This effect is more pronounced in cities with a high proportion of tertiary industries. Technological innovation at the enterprise level has the capacity to promote sustainable development through two distinct pathways. Firstly, process innovation (e.g., industrial wastewater treatment technology) can directly reduce pollution emissions in the production chain (corresponding to the SDR indicator). Secondly, product innovation (e.g., smart grid systems) can improve energy utilisation efficiency and promote the green transformation of lifestyles (SDS indicator). However, the diffusion effect of technological innovation is constrained by the institutional environment and market structure. Research indicates that developed countries expedite the international transfer of low-carbon technologies through carbon market mechanisms [38]. However, developing countries exhibit limited technology spillover effects due to intellectual property barriers and inadequate technology absorption capacity. This finding is corroborated by the FIL (foreign investment level) indicator among the control variables in this paper: although the inflow of foreign investment may result in the adoption of advanced technology, its concentration in heavily polluting industries may lead to the problem of “carbon leakage”. Consequently, the mediating effect of S&T investment must be evaluated in conjunction with regional economic characteristics. The following hypothesis is thus proposed in this paper:

H2: 

Inputs play a mediating role in achieving carbon neutrality for sustainable urban development.

The impacts of carbon-neutral governance on urban sustainable development demonstrate significant regional heterogeneity, with gradient differences between western, eastern, and central China [39]. The phenomenon of regional heterogeneity is attributable to discrepancies in resource endowment, industrial structure, and policy implementation. The theory of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) posits the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of economic development and environmental pollution. Western provinces are predominantly located on the left side of the EKC (lower per capita GDP), and the marginal effect of environmental regulations on green transformation is higher. Yunnan Province, with its abundant hydropower resources, is a case in point. It was projected that by 2020, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in the province would reach 46%, far exceeding the national average of 15.9% [40]. Relying on abundant hydropower resources, Yunnan Province, for example, will have a 46% share of non-fossil energy consumption in 2020, far exceeding the national average (15.9%), and the effectiveness of its carbon-neutral governance will be prominent in the energy structure indicators. Furthermore, national policies that favour ecologically fragile areas in the west (e.g., subsidies for returning farmland to forests) have further strengthened the potential for green leapfrogging.

Conversely, while the eastern region has achieved economic development, the path dependence of traditional industries is pronounced, and the cost of transformation is considerable. In Guangdong Province, for instance, the value added by the manufacturing sector accounts for 35% of GDP. However, the carbon emission intensity of its energy-intensive industries (e.g., iron, steel, and petrochemicals) is 20% higher than the national average [41]. Notwithstanding the technology spillover effect from foreign investment inflows (FIL indicator), the carbon leakage problem in foreign investment-intensive industries (e.g., multinational corporations transferring high-carbon production to regions with lax regulations) partially offsets the effectiveness of the governance. The central region, as the nation’s manufacturing base, faces a “carbon lock-in” effect: the existing infrastructure and industrial chain solidify a high-carbon development model, and the effects of policies are lagging behind. For instance, in Hubei Province, industrial electricity consumption was projected to account for 68% of the province’s total electricity consumption in 2021. However, energy consumption per unit of industrial added value was estimated to be 15% higher than in the eastern region [42,43]. The majority of established studies are based on macro-statistics and lack explanations of micro-mechanisms. This paper employs a combination of the control variables of “GDP per capita” and “foreign investment level” to elucidate the underlying motivations of regional disparities. The western region has realised the “catching-up effect” through environmental regulations, while the eastern region has relied on technological diffusion but has been constrained by external factors. The eastern part of the region is reliant on technology diffusion but is constrained by path dependence, while the central part is trapped in the “transition depression” due to insufficient investment in science and technology (mediating variable weakening). The following hypothesis is thus proposed in this paper:

H3: 

Carbon-neutral governance has an impact on sustainable urban development.

4. Model Design and Variable Definition

4.1. Variable Definition

4.1.1. Implicit Variable

The explanatory variable of this study is urban sustainable development (USD). From the standpoint of environmental sociology, green space constitutes the fundamental element of urban natural capital, exerting a direct influence on the health of residents and the strength of social cohesion. The distribution of green space can serve as an indicator of the fairness of environmental resource distribution, with a balanced distribution potentially indicating greater fairness. Furthermore, the measurement of energy efficiency relative to economic output can, to a certain extent, reflect the level of industrial technology upgrading. Therefore, based on the United Nations’ definition of sustainable development, this paper refers to Zhou’s (2024) definition of urban sustainable development and proposes an innovative index system for urban sustainable development in China [1]. The study utilises the entropy weighting method to assess four aspects, namely, the sustainable development of environmental quality (SDEQ), the sustainable development of resources (SDR), the sustainable development of human resources (SDM), and the sustainable development of living (SDS). Nine specific indicators are employed to evaluate the urban sustainable development levels across China’s 300 prefecture-level administrative districts during the period from 2013 to 2022 (

Table 1. Urban sustainable development index system.

Primary Index	Specific Index	Unit of Measurement	Index Attribute
Environmental quality sustainable development (EQSD)	Per capita green space	Hectares per 10,000 people	+
	Green coverage rate of built-up area	%	+
	Industrial wastewater discharge	Tons	-
Sustainable development of resources (SDR)	Annual electricity consumption/GDP	Ten thousand yuan	+
	Industrial electricity consumption/Industrial value added	Tons/ten thousand yuan	+
	Proportion of value added of tertiary industry	%	+
Sustainable development of manpower (SDM)	Proportion of personnel engaged in information transmission	%	+
Sustainable development of life (SDL)	Number of buses per 10,000 people	A	+
	Per capita household electricity consumption	Degree	-

+ means positive; - means negative; the same below.

).

4.1.2. Independent Variables

From the perspective of environmental sociology, energy structure (ES), green living (GL), and low-carbon transport (LT), as core indicators of carbon-neutral governance, together reveal the synergistic transformation logic of social and natural systems. ES reflects the process of “decarbonisation” of the social production model, which not only relies on technological innovation but is also subject to the game of interest groups; GL explains how individual behaviour is reshaped by cultural norms, political discourses, and market mechanisms through the social constructivist view of the environment; LT exposes the equity problem of urban spatial resource allocation from the theory of environmental justice, and reveals the impacts on the environment and the fairness of urban spatial resource distribution. Therefore, this paper constructs the following carbon-neutral governance effectiveness system (

Table 2. Carbon-neutral comprehensive management effectiveness index system.

Comprehensive Index	Primary Index	Specific Index	Unit of Measurement	Index Attribute
Carbon-Neutral Governance (CNG)	Energy Structure (ES)	Total liquefied petroleum gas supply/Total gas supply	Tons	+
	Green Living (GL)	Garden green area	Ha.	+
	Low Carbon Transport (LT)	Number of buses in operation	A	+

).

4.1.3. Intermediary Variable

Scientific and technological contributions are identified as a pivotal mechanism in achieving the efficacy of carbon-neutral governance, a notion that has been substantiated in the context of constructing waste-free cities (Zhou). On the one hand, scientific and technological contributions can facilitate research and development, as well as the implementation of low-carbon, zero-carbon, and carbon-negative technologies. Furthermore, they can assist in the establishment of a more precise carbon emission monitoring and accounting system, thereby providing a scientific foundation for a carbon-neutral governance framework. Conversely, S&T inputs assume a pivotal role in the promotion of sustainable urban development, facilitating the transition of conventional industries towards green and low-carbon models. This transition not only enhances resource utilisation efficiency but also contributes to the enhancement of the quality of life for urban dwellers. Therefore, the present study adopts the number of scientific and technological personnel (STP) as a mediating variable, which is expressed as scientific and technological service personnel.

4.1.4. Control Variables

The present study takes the characteristics that may have an impact on the sustainable development of the city as control variables. Economic development level (EDL): based on the theory of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), the dynamic relationship between per capita GDP and urban environmental quality can verify the threshold effect of economic development stage on sustainable transformation. Therefore, this paper uses GDP per capita taken as logarithm to represent the level of urban economic development. Foreign investment level (FIL): the level of foreign investment can reflect the degree of sustainable economic development of the city. This paper uses the annual actual utilisation of foreign capital/gross regional product to express the level of foreign investment.

4.2. Model Design

In order to assess the impact of carbon neutrality on sustainable urban development, the following panel regression model was constructed in this paper with reference to Li, Tan et al. [44,45]

USD_it = α_0·α0 + α_1·CNG_it + ∑[α_2 Controlit_it] + year_it + μ_it + ε_it

(1)

In this model, the symbol ‘t’ denotes the year, ‘USD’ represents the level of sustainable development of the city, ‘CNG’ is carbon-neutral governance, ‘Control’ is a set of control variables affecting the USD, ‘year’ denotes a time fixed effect, ‘μ’ is a city fixed effect, and ‘ε’ is a random perturbation term.

4.3. Data Sources

In order to ensure the scientific validity of the data, the research sample excludes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. In this paper, data from 2015 to 2022 were selected from 300 prefecture-level administrative regions in China, and this sample has good continuity. The relevant data were sourced from the China Urban Statistical Yearbook in previous years and public data from the municipal statistical bureaus. Due to the absence of some data in 2022, the interpolation method was employed to fill in the missing values. The descriptive statistics of the data can be found in

Table 3. Descriptive statistics.

Variable	N	Mean	SD	Min	Max
USD	2400.000	0.007	0.008	0.000	0.134
EQSD	2400.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.002
SDR	2400.000	0.046	0.030	0.000	0.651
SDM	2400.000	0.009	0.050	0.000	1.000
SDL	2400.000	0.005	0.015	0.000	0.487
CNG	2400.000	0.014	0.027	0.000	0.244
ES	2400.000	7.633	101.868	0.000	5016.000
GL	2400.000	1673.336	3333.927	7.000	38,728.000
LT	2400.000	8315.596	16,388.906	2.000	172,646.000
EDL	2400.000	11.055	0.532	8.327	15.675
FIL	2400.000	13.077	1.318	4.796	18.833
STP	2400.000	1.185	3.633	0.006	71.715

.

4.4. Limitations

The present study is based exclusively on panel data from 300 Chinese cities from 2015 to 2022, which constitutes a limitation in terms of sample selection given that Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan were excluded. Furthermore, despite controlling for the level of economic development and the level of foreign investment, the impact of policy factors remains under-researched. Meanwhile, the study under scrutiny relies principally on quantitative indicators, whilst qualitative variables pertaining to carbon-neutral governance in China remain largely unexamined.

5. Empirical Analysis

5.1. Correlation Analysis and VIF Test

As demonstrated in

Table 4. Correlation analysis results.

Variable	USD	EQSD	SDR	SDM	SDL	CNG	ES	GL	LT	EDL	FIL	STP
USD	1.000
EQSD	0.128 ***	1.000
SDR	0.399 ***	0.121 ***	1.000
SDM	0.911 ***	0.082 ***	0.071 ***	1.000
SDL	0.334 ***	0.002	0.157 ***	0.050 **	1.000
CNG	0.546 ***	0.149 ***	0.076 ***	0.564 ***	0.110 ***	1.000
ES	−0.001	−0.042 **	0.003	−0.006	0.014	−0.011	1.000
GL	0.551 ***	0.106 ***	0.053 **	0.559 ***	0.167 ***	0.947 ***	−0.021	1.000
LT	0.482 ***	0.128 ***	0.051 **	0.516 ***	0.043 **	0.956 ***	−0.019	0.812 ***	1.000
EDL	0.113 ***	0.201 ***	−0.143 ***	0.175 ***	−0.006	0.397 ***	−0.068 ***	0.383 ***	0.377 ***	1.000
FIL	0.161 ***	0.076 ***	−0.066 ***	0.180 ***	0.088 ***	0.251 ***	−0.078 ***	0.244 ***	0.237 ***	0.264 ***	1.000
STP	0.862 ***	0.071 ***	0.039 *	0.960 ***	0.034 *	0.555 ***	−0.014	0.551 ***	0.511 ***	0.206 ***	0.210 ***	1.000

Standard errors in parentheses; * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

, the correlation between CNG and USD exhibits a significant positive relationship. This correlation is robust and consistent with the findings of the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) test, which indicates that multicollinearity is not a significant concern in this model (see

Table 5. VIF test results.

Variable	VIF	1/VIF
ES	1.01	0.990
GL	3.46	0.288
LT	3.16	0.316
EQSD	1.15	0.870
SDR	1.07	0.932
SDL	1.52	0.657
SDS	1.09	0.915
EDL	1.42	0.705
FIL	1.13	0.885
Mean	1.68

). The regression results further substantiate the role of CNG in USD, validating the model’s predictions. The results show that the VIF values of all variables are lower than the critical value of 5, with an average value of 1.72. This indicates that the model does not have a serious multicollinearity problem and the regression results are reliable.

5.2. Base Regression Analysis

The baseline regression results in

Table 6. Regression analysis results.

Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	USD	USD	USD	USD
CNG	0.145 ***	0.156 ***	0.032	0.044 *
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.024)	(0.024)
EDL		−0.002 ***		−0.000
		(0.000)		(0.001)
FIL		0.000 ***		0.000 ***
		(0.000)		(0.000)
_cons	0.004 ***	0.020 ***	0.010 ***	0.007
	(0.000)	(0.003)	(0.000)	(0.006)
City	NO	NO	Yes	Yes
Year	NO	NO	Yes	Yes
N	2400.000	2400.000	2400.000	2400.000
R2	0.299	0.314	0.182	0.187

Standard errors in parentheses; * p < 0.1; *** p < 0.01.

show that the effect of carbon-neutral governance (CNG) on urban sustainable development (USD) varies significantly across model settings. The significant positive effect of CNG on USD in columns (1)–(2) indicates that carbon-neutral governance is effective in promoting sustainable development when city and year characteristics are not controlled. However, the coefficients of CNG increase slightly but remain insignificant after city and year fixed effects are added in columns (3)–(4). This may be because the fixed effects absorb the effects of unobserved city and time characteristics, such as the economic structure of different cities, the strength of policy implementation, and time-related technological progress. With the acceleration of urbanisation, cities play an important role in economic development and resource consumption, but they also face environmental pollution and resource pressure. Therefore, China is promoting carbon-neutral governance at the city level with the aim of achieving a coordinated approach between economic development and environmental protection, satisfying people’s need for a beautiful ecological environment, and enhancing the liveability and competitiveness of cities to achieve sustainable development. This policy context echoes the regression results in Table 6, suggesting that, after controlling for other factors, the promotion of urban sustainable development through the effectiveness of carbon-neutral governance needs to be further considered in the context of a more complex reality. Thus, H1 is initially confirmed.

5.3. Mediation Effect Analysis

According to the regression analysis results in Table 6, it can be seen that CNG has a significant positive impact on USD. However, in the real society, there will be many factors affecting the final result, and some scholars have explored the impact of carbon neutrality on sustainable development from the aspects of green technology innovation, industrial structure adjustment, and energy consumption structure optimisation. Therefore, this study innovatively explores the issue from the perspective of the number of researchers. According to the mediation effect regression results in

Table 7. Results of mediation effect analysis.

Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)
	Total Effect (X→Y)	Path a (X→M)	Path b (M→Y)
CNG	0.044 *	−74.993 ***	0.172 ***
	(0.024)	(12.157)	(0.013)
EDL	−0.000	0.246	−0.001 **
	(0.001)	(0.272)	(0.000)
FIL	0.000 ***	0.284 ***	−0.000
	(0.000)	(0.054)	(0.000)
STP			0.002 ***
			(0.000)
City	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year	Yes	Yes	Yes
_cons	0.007	−4.275	0.014 ***
	(0.006)	(3.023)	(0.003)
N	2400.000	2400.000	2400.000
R2	0.187	0.035	0.774

Standard errors in parentheses; * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

, the total effect of CNG on USD is 0.044 and significant at the 10% level, indicating that there is a certain positive effect of CNG on USD. Path a analysis shows that S has a significant negative effect on STP, with a coefficient of −74.993 and significant at the 1% level, while path b shows that STP has a significant positive effect on USD, with a coefficient of 0.172 and also significant at the 1% level. This suggests that CNG indirectly affects USD by influencing STP and thus there is a mediating effect. This may be due to the fact that with the acceleration of urbanisation, the traditional high-pollution, high-energy-consumption industrial model is unsustainable and society has an urgent demand for green, low-carbon, environmentally friendly industrial forms. Carbon-neutral governance forces cities to accelerate industrial restructuring, eliminate backward production capacity, and develop new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, and other emerging industries, thus promoting the transformation of economic growth mode, realising the coordination between economic development and environmental protection, and enhancing the city’s sustainable development capability. This process reflects society’s inherent demand for, and active promotion of, industrial structural transformation in the process of coping with environmental challenges and pursuing high-quality development. Therefore, H2 is validated.

5.4. Robustness Analysis

In order to provide further analysis of the reliability of the model, it was subjected to three different tests (see

Table 8. Results of robustness analysis.

Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)
	USD	USD	USD_Lag
CNG	0.145 ***		0.168 ***
	(0.023)		(0.023)
CNG_lag		0.142 ***
		(0.024)
Control variable	Yes	Yes	Yes
City	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year	Yes	Yes	Yes
_cons	0.004 ***	0.004 ***	0.004 ***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
N	2400.000	4037.000	2400.000
R2	0.299	0.376	0.341

*** p < 0.01.

). Model (1) is a 5000-boost test of the original model, the result of which is still significant. Models (2) and (3) are lagged regressions of the independent and dependent variables, respectively, and the results of both models are significant. The three robustness tests above confirm that the benchmark regression results of this paper are reliable.

5.5. Heterogeneity Analysis

The regression results in

Table 9. Regression results of urban regional heterogeneity.

Variable	Region
	Eastern City	Central City	Western City
CNG	0.040 ***	0.018 **	0.121 ***
	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.038)
EDL	−0.002 ***	−0.001 ***	0.000
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)
FIL	−0.000	−0.000 ***	−0.001 **
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
STP	0.002 ***	0.001 ***	−0.001 *
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)
_cons	0.021 ***	0.020 ***	0.012
	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.010)
City	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	2040.000	248.000	112.000
R2	0.775	0.306	0.142

Standard errors in parentheses; * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

demonstrate that the impact of carbon neutral governance (CNG) on urban sustainable development (USD) varies significantly across regions. Specifically, in eastern cities, the effect of CNG on USD is 0.040 and is significant at the 1 per cent level; in central cities, the effect is 0.018 and is significant at the 5 per cent level; however, in western cities, the effect reaches 0.121 and is highly significant at the 1 per cent level. This finding suggests that carbon-neutral governance in western cities has the most significant contribution to sustainable development, followed by eastern cities, whereas its contribution is relatively weaker in central cities. This regional difference may stem from the following factors: Firstly, differences in the level of economic development lead to different responses and implementation effects of carbon-neutral policies in different regions. Cities in the east are economically developed, have stronger technical and financial support, and are able to implement carbon-neutral measures more effectively, thus promoting sustainable development; cities in the centre have relatively balanced economic development, but may not have the same technical and financial input as the east, and thus have a slightly weaker effect; cities in the west are economically relatively backward, but may be tilted in favour of the policy and the concentration of resources, which makes the achievements of carbon-neutral governance in these regions more significant. Secondly, differences in the sense of social equity and public participation may also affect the effectiveness of governance. It is hypothesised that cities in the east and west may have higher levels of public environmental awareness and participation, while cities in the centre have relatively lower levels, leading to differences in governance effectiveness. In conclusion, the efficacy of policy implementation and the governance capacity of local governments also vary by region, thereby further exacerbating the regional heterogeneity in the impact of CNG on USD. Consequently, H3 is validated.

6. Discussion and Conclusions

6.1. Discussion

This paper verifies the role of carbon-neutral governance in promoting urban sustainable development through empirical data and case studies. For example, the direct correlation between the decrease in carbon intensity and the improvement in air quality (for every 10% decrease in carbon intensity, there is 4.2% improvement in AQI), the improvement in the carbon sink capacity of Beijing’s “one million mu afforestation project” (2 million tons per year), and the synergistic emission reduction effect of Shenzhen’s low-carbon transportation policy (35% decrease in transportation carbon emission intensity) all indicate that carbon neutrality policy achieves the synergy of multi-dimensional goals of environment (EQSD), resources (SDR), and life (SDL) by optimising energy structure, strengthening ecological restoration, and promoting lifestyle transformation. However, the existing research mostly relies on macro-statistical data, and the explanation of the micro-mechanism is still insufficient [46]. For example, the integration of multi-dimensional indicators (such as the interaction between SDR and SDL) lacks specific methods, which may mask potential conflicts between different objectives (for example, the promotion of industrial water-saving technologies may increase energy consumption). Future research needs to quantify the weight and interaction between indicators through dynamic panel models or structural equations to more accurately assess the systematic contribution of carbon-neutral governance.

The mediating effect of science and technology investment in carbon neutrality and governance is partially supported. China’s clean technology R&D intensity increased to 2.4% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The empirical results show that every 1% increase in science and technology expenditure can promote a 0.3% decrease in carbon intensity, and the transmission path of clean energy patents (such as photovoltaic technology) to industrial emission reduction is significant [47]. This finding is consistent with the mechanism according to which “technological progress offsets environmental costs” in neoclassical growth theory. However, the heterogeneity of technology diffusion is not fully explained: on the one hand, the marginal benefit of science and technology investment in the central and western regions may be lower than that in the east due to weak technology absorptive capacity (such as backward R&D infrastructure and insufficient human capital) [48]; on the other hand, although the introduction of foreign capital brings technology spillovers, its layout in heavily polluting industries may exacerbate “carbon leakage” (such as the transfer of high-carbon production links by multinational enterprises) [49]. Future research needs to incorporate technology absorptive capacity indicators (such as education level and digital infrastructure) and build a “technology–institution–market” synergy framework to more fully reveal the boundary conditions of the mediating effect.

The hypothesis of regional heterogeneity is verified from the perspective of resource endowment and policy tilt. Relying on the advantages of hydropower resources and non-fossil energy (46%), the western provinces (such as Yunnan) are more likely to achieve green leap by superimposing ecological compensation policies [50]. Eastern China (such as Guangdong) is constrained by the path dependence of high-energy-consuming industries. Although foreign technology spillovers are significant, the risk of “carbon leakage” weakens the effectiveness of governance [51]. The central region (such as Hubei) is lagging behind due to the “carbon lock-in” effect (high industrial energy consumption and insufficient transformation power) [52]. This conclusion is consistent with the regional differentiation characteristics of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). However, this research does not fully consider the impact of local government governance effectiveness. For example, there may be “policy implementation bias” in some parts of the west, while strong fiscal capacity in the east may accelerate the application of technology. In the future, it is necessary to introduce government efficiency indicators (such as environmental law enforcement intensity and the corruption index), and use spatial econometric models to analyse the shaping effect of “resource–institutional–economic” ternary interaction on heterogeneity.

6.2. Conclusions

By constructing a “policy-driven technology-responsive spatial adaptation” framework, this paper reveals the multi-dimensional impact of carbon-neutral governance on urban sustainable development and its regional differentiation mechanism. The study found the following: (1) Carbon neutrality policies can promote sustainable development through the multi-dimensional synergy of the environment, the economy, and society, but it is necessary to be alert to potential conflicts between indicators. (2) The mediating effect of science and technology investment is significant, but its effectiveness is restricted by technology absorptive capacity and institutional environment. (3) The western region has more potential for green transformation due to its resource and policy advantages, while the eastern and central regions need to solve the dilemma of path dependence and “carbon lock-in”. Future research should deepen the multi-index integration method, expand the micro-mechanism of technology diffusion, and incorporate regional specific variables such as government governance to enhance the explanatory power and practical guiding value of the theoretical model.

When situated within the broader context of the global green economy transition, China’s “dual-carbon” policy can be regarded as a strategic decision aimed at proactively integrating itself into the emergent international division of labour system. The multi-dimensional impact of carbon-neutral governance on sustainable urban development reflects China’s institutional innovation in the global climate governance power game. The discrepancy in the mediating effect of scientific and technological contributions delineates the structural incongruity between the technological monopoly of developed countries and the technological catch-up of developing countries. Despite China’s technological advancements in wind and solar power, which have diminished the green premium, technological impediments in pivotal domains such as chips continue to impede the efficacy of the entire industrial chain in curbing carbon emissions. The mechanism of regional differentiation thus reveals the logic of reconstruction of China’s internal economic geography. The west relies on “wind resources + digital new infrastructure” to form green growth, the east buttresses the international rules through carbon finance and service upgrading, and the central part of the country needs to address the predicament of “low-end lock-in” and “low-carbon cost transfer” in the context of industrial transfer. This spatial adaptation is not only related to China’s internal regional coordinated development strategy but also resonates with the “Belt and Road” green production capacity cooperation. The effectiveness of this cooperation will directly affect China’s explanatory power and practical guidance value in global climate governance.