Research on Regional Disparities and Determinants of Carbon Emission Efficiency: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China

Effective carbon emission control at the provincial level is essential for advancing the high-quality development of the national economy under the “dual carbon” targets. Although Hubei Province is endowed with abundant natural resources and significant potential for sustainable growth, it still faces considerable challenges in industrial and energy restructuring. Therefore, improving carbon emission efficiency (CEE) is imperative. This study thoroughly analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of CEE in Hubei Province. Furthermore, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) were applied to analyze the determinants of changes in CEE. The results indicate that significant disparities in CEE exist across Hubei Province, with the eastern region exhibiting the highest efficiency and the central region the lowest. The year 2016 represented a turning point, as Moran’s I increased from −0.0006 in 2016 to 0.5134 in 2017, indicating a shift in the spatial pattern of CEE from a weak and insignificant spatial autocorrelation to a strong positive spatial autocorrelation. In addition, the CEE in Hubei Province demonstrated a “siphon effect” and exhibited pronounced polarization. Based on these findings, region-specific policies are proposed. The eastern region should optimize its industrial structure and strengthen urban governance. The western region should leverage its clean energy advantage and enhance carbon sink capacity. The central region should advance low-carbon industrial transformation and coordinated governance to prevent core cities from transferring resources and pollution to surrounding areas.