Diffusion of Low-Altitude UAV Technology in Sustainable Development: An Evolutionary Game on Complex Networks
Abstract
1. Introduction
- (1)
- The complex network evolutionary game model is to be migrated to the study of low-altitude UAV diffusion.
- (2)
- Multiple factors affecting enterprise profit decision-making are to be comprehensively considered.
- (3)
- Traditional game theory analysis results are to be compared with complex network simulation results in order to verify the rationality of the model and parameter values.
2. Literature Review
2.1. Technology Diffusion Theory and Low-Attitude UAV Development
2.2. Complex Network Evolutionary Game
3. Game Model Construction
3.1. Model Assumptions
3.2. Enterprise Profits Under Government Intervention
- where:
3.3. Evolutionary Stability Analysis
4. Complex Network Model Construction
4.1. Construction of the Small-World Model
- (1)
- Generate a nearest-neighbor coupled network with nodes arranged in a ring, where each node is connected to its nearest neighbors ( is an even number). Randomly assign each enterprise an initial strategy based on the initial adoption proportion selected for the network.
- (2)
- With probability , randomly select a pair of nodes and add an edge between them. There is at most one edge between any two distinct nodes, and no node can connect to itself.
4.2. Strategy Update Rule
5. Numerical Simulation Analysis
5.1. Parameter Initialization Setting
5.2. Impact of Government Intervention on Low-Altitude UAV Technology Diffusion
5.3. Impact of Government Subsidies to Manufacturers on Low-Altitude UAV Technology Diffusion
5.4. Impact of Government Subsidies to Enterprises on Low-Altitude UAV Technology Diffusion
5.5. Impact of Constraint Penalty on Low-Altitude UAV Technology Diffusion
6. Conclusions and Implications
6.1. Research Conclusions
- (1)
- Addressing the core influencing factors: This study sought to identify the core factors influencing enterprises’ strategic choices. We conclude that these factors are threefold: (a) direct government subsidies to enterprises adopting the technology, which lower initial investment risks; (b) government subsidies to UAV manufacturers, which accelerate technological maturity and indirectly lower costs for adopters; and (c) the practical constraints on diffusion (e.g., airspace restrictions, safety risks, infrastructure shortcomings), which act as significant penalties and barriers to adoption.
- (2)
- Validating the efficacy and nuance of subsidy mechanisms: A primary objective was to empirically test the impact of government subsidies. We conclude that subsidy mechanisms are not merely beneficial but are essential for successful diffusion. Without them, diffusion fails. The simulation further reveals that diffusion rate increases with subsidy intensity and that the critical threshold for adoption is higher for Marginal Enterprises than for Core Enterprises, highlighting the need for differentiated policy.
- (3)
- Quantifying the impact of development constraints: This research aimed to integrate and quantify the tangible effects of real-world constraints. We conclude that constraints such as airspace issues and safety risks are pivotal negative factors. The diffusion rate decreases proportionally as the “penalty” from these constraints increases. When constraints are severe, they completely negate the positive effects of subsidies and lead to diffusion failure, underscoring the necessity of parallel regulatory and infrastructural policies.
6.2. Implications
- (1)
- This study makes significant contributions to social sustainable development at both theoretical and practical levels. Theoretically, it innovatively integrates complex network theory with evolutionary game theory to construct a dynamic model of low-altitude UAV technology diffusion, systematically revealing for the first time how government policies influence the diffusion process through networked interactions. The model captures the multiple sustainability benefits arising from the adoption of low-altitude UAV technology, including but not limited to reducing carbon emissions, enhancing agricultural productivity, and strengthening environmental monitoring capabilities. On the practical front, the research outcomes provide policymakers with a robust evidence-based foundation. Through comparative analysis within a unified framework, the study elucidates the relative effectiveness and sensitivity of different subsidy strategies (targeting manufacturers versus adopting enterprises), quantifies the impact of key constraints, and offers practical solutions for designing more effective policy instruments to accelerate the low-carbon transition driven by low-altitude UAV technology.
- (2)
- Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations: Governments should establish targeted subsidy mechanisms, offering differentiated support—such as higher and longer subsidies for Marginal Enterprises—to overcome adoption barriers, while providing standardized incentives for Core Enterprises. Concurrently, subsidies should be directed to manufacturers to accelerate technological maturity and reduce costs. Furthermore, governments must actively mitigate constraints by accelerating the formulation of airspace and safety regulations, implementing integrated pilot programs in selected clusters to create demonstrable models for broader replication.
- (3)
- The findings offer clear guidance for key industry stakeholders: Enterprise managers should pursue first-mover advantages by aligning early adoption with government pilot programs and actively engaging in policy design. UAV manufacturers are advised to focus innovation on addressing core constraints—such as sense-and-avoid technology and noise reduction—to enhance product attractiveness. Meanwhile, industry consortia play a vital role in fostering collective action: disseminating best practices, establishing uniform standards, and promoting knowledge-sharing to reduce costs and risks, especially for marginal enterprises.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Symbol | Meaning |
---|---|
Operating cost for enterprises using traditional technology | |
Operating cost for enterprises using low-altitude UAV technology | |
Penalty for low-altitude UAV diffusion constraints | |
The number of enterprises in the network | |
Price paid by consumers for traditional technology services | |
Price paid by consumers for low-altitude technology services | |
Total market demand | |
Proportion of enterprises adopting low-altitude UAV technology in the cluster | |
Subsidy given by the government to enterprises adopting low-altitude UAVs | |
Government subsidy intensity for low-altitude UAV manufacturers | |
Perceived value benefit of consumers for traditional technology | |
Perceived value benefit of consumers for low-altitude UAV technology | |
Consumer preference for low-altitude UAV technology | |
Maturity of low-altitude UAV technology applications | |
Initial maturity of low-altitude UAV technology applications | |
The respective market shares of Core Enterprises and Marginal Enterprises when they adopt the same strategy | |
Impact coefficient of government subsidies on the development level of low-altitude UAV technology | |
The profits for Enterprises adopting low-altitude UAV technologies | |
The profits for Enterprises adopting traditional technologies |
Marginal Enterprise B | Core Enterprise A | |
---|---|---|
Low-Altitude UAV Technology | Traditional Technology | |
Low-altitude UAV Technology | ; | ; |
Traditional Technology | ; | ; |
Equilibrium Points | ||
---|---|---|
) | ) | |
0 |
Condition | Equilibrium Points | Stability | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
+ | − | ESS | ||
− | * | Saddle Point | ||
− | * | Saddle Point | ||
+ | + | Unstable Point | ||
− | 0 | Non-Equilibrium Point | ||
− | * | Saddle Point | ||
+ | − | ESS | ||
+ | + | Unstable Point | ||
− | * | Saddle Point | ||
− | 0 | Non-Equilibrium Point | ||
− | * | Saddle Point | ||
+ | + | Unstable Point | ||
+ | − | ESS | ||
− | * | Saddle Point | ||
− | 0 | Non-Equilibrium Point | ||
0 | + | + | Unstable Point | |
− | * | Saddle Point | ||
− | * | Saddle Point | ||
+ | − | ESS | ||
− | 0 | Non-Equilibrium Point | ||
+ | − | ESS | ||
+ | + | Unstable Point | ||
+ | + | Unstable Point | ||
+ | − | ESS | ||
− | 0 | Non-Equilibrium Point |
100 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 20 | 200 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 24 | 10 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
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Liu, C.; Ma, J.; Ding, Y. Diffusion of Low-Altitude UAV Technology in Sustainable Development: An Evolutionary Game on Complex Networks. Sustainability 2025, 17, 8751. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17198751
Liu C, Ma J, Ding Y. Diffusion of Low-Altitude UAV Technology in Sustainable Development: An Evolutionary Game on Complex Networks. Sustainability. 2025; 17(19):8751. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17198751
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Chang, Jiale Ma, and Yi Ding. 2025. "Diffusion of Low-Altitude UAV Technology in Sustainable Development: An Evolutionary Game on Complex Networks" Sustainability 17, no. 19: 8751. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17198751
APA StyleLiu, C., Ma, J., & Ding, Y. (2025). Diffusion of Low-Altitude UAV Technology in Sustainable Development: An Evolutionary Game on Complex Networks. Sustainability, 17(19), 8751. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17198751