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Article

Effects of Climate Change and Ecological Water Conveyance on the Suitable Distribution of Populus euphratica in Tarim River Basin

by
Wenyin Huang
1,2,
Qifei Han
1,* and
Haitao Wang
1
1
School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2
School of Geographical Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2025, 17(17), 7854; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177854
Submission received: 29 May 2025 / Revised: 11 August 2025 / Accepted: 26 August 2025 / Published: 31 August 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Development in Sustainable Water Management: Processes, Barriers, Protection and Future Perspectives)
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Abstract

Climate change significantly alters vegetation distribution patterns in arid regions, while ecological water conveyance serves as a critical intervention to modify these patterns by augmenting water availability. As a keystone species in Central Asia’s water-stressed ecosystems, Populus euphratica plays a pivotal role in maintaining arid ecosystem stability, making the investigation of its habitat suitability under combined climate change and ecological water conveyance imperative. This study selected 12 variables associated with the spatial distribution of P. euphratica, including bioclimate, groundwater resources, available water storage capacity, elevation, distance to rivers, and stocking rate. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, we projected habitat distributions of P. euphratica across the Tarim River Basin with three scenarios: no climate change, climate change, and ecological water conveyance. The study indicated that (1) distance to rivers has the significant effect on the distribution of P. euphratica; (2) although climate change is expected to reduce the habitat suitable for P. euphratica, the implementation of ecological water conveyance is expected to lead to an expansion of its habitat; (3) the implementation of ecological water conveyance is expected to cause the habitat suitable for P. euphratica to shift toward the southeast, suggesting that this initiative has increased groundwater resources in the southeastern part of the watershed. These findings provide a scientific foundation for protecting P. euphratica and formulating effective ecological water conveyance strategies.

1. Introduction

Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic global climate change driven by industrial activities has caused a persistent rise in Earth’s average annual temperature [1], posing a critical challenge to ecological stability. Global warming may most severely intensify drought in semi-arid and arid regions by enhancing the hydrological cycle, consequently making climatologically arid areas drier and wet areas wetter [2,3,4]. The Tarim River Basin, a mountain-basin system characterized by complex topography encompassing mountains and intermontane basins, is located in arid northwestern China and exhibits high sensitivity to climate change due to its geomorphological complexity [5,6,7].
Populus euphratica (P. euphratica) stands out as ancient woody plant within its taxonomic classification [8], and it is a unique and extremely valuable component of the desert riparian forest [9]. P. euphratica is important to the ecology of the Tarim River Basin. China has 61% of the world’s P. euphratica, 89% of which are distributed in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang [10]. Functioning as a keystone species in arid ecosystems, P. euphratica delivers critical and irreplaceable ecosystem services through sand stabilization, desertification mitigation, vegetation degradation control, and biodiversity conservation, thereby maintaining ecological equilibrium in arid regions [11] while also functioning as a crucial component of these ecosystems [12]. The expansion of cultivated land, excessive exploitation of agricultural water resources, and improvements in soil productivity [13,14] have led to the degradation of natural vegetation across vast areas of northwestern China [15], particularly the decline of P. euphratica around the Tarim River Basin [14,16]. Both climate change and human activities have influenced the growth and survival conditions of P. euphratica forests in the Tarim River Basin oases [17]. Driven by combined factors, the global distribution region of P. euphratica has significantly shrunk in recent decades, sparking widespread societal concern [18].
The relevant departments have implemented ecological water conveyance aimed at restoring P. euphratica. Chen et al. documented a marked increase in groundwater levels, expansion of surface area, and growth in vegetation density and coverage in the region [13]. Since 2000, continuous ecological water conveyance has driven sustained ecosystem recovery in the Tarim River. In arid regions, where ecological restoration is needed, ecological water conveyance plays an important and direct role [19]. However, the influence of ecological water conveyance on P. euphratica habitat suitability remains unclear and requires further in-depth research.
Currently, a variety of ecological niche models have been developed utilizing different algorithms, including Bioclim [20], MaxEnt [21], and GARP [22]. Compared to other models, MaxEnt is characterized by its ease of use, excellent accuracy, low data demands, and fast execution time [23,24]. It is extensively applied in various fields [25,26,27,28,29]. For example, it is utilized in species conservation [30] and biodiversity analysis [31].
In summary, the primary goal of this study is to assess the effects of climate change and ecological water conveyance on the distribution region of P. euphratica. The research objectives were (1) to analyze the distribution of P. euphratica in the context of climate change and ecological water conveyance; (2) to quantify the impact of ecological water conveyance and climate change on the spatial distribution pattern of P. euphratica; and (3) to investigate the potential shifts in the geographic center of distribution of P. euphratica under climate change and ecological water conveyance scenarios. By analyzing these outcomes, we can more accurately quantify how climate change and ecological water conveyance influence the distribution and development of P. euphratica in this region. Additionally, these results will also offer a scientific foundation for local governments and relevant departments in developing effective ecological water conveyance plans.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area Description

The Tarim River Basin, covering an area of 131.03 × 104 km2, extends from 34°84′ to 43°36′ N and 73°45′ to 96°38′ E (Figure 1). It is recognized as the most extensive inland river basin in China [32] and is also identified as the driest area within the country [33]. It is distinguished by an extremely arid desert environment and a continental warm temperate climate, primarily due to its considerable distance from the ocean and its encirclement by mountain ranges [34]. The annual average daily temperature ranges between 14 °C and 16 °C [34]. The average annual precipitation varies from 60 to 130 mm, and potential evaporation varies from 1800 to 2900 mm [35,36]. The vegetation is typical desert riparian forest consisting of grasses, trees, and shrubs [37]. The dominant tree species in the area is P. euphratica, with Tamarix and Phragmites reeds being the main associated flora [38]. It contains one of the largest natural forests of P. euphratica globally [39]. Between 2000 and 2020, a total of 21 water conveyance operations were implemented in the lower regions of the Tarim River. [40]. In the Tarim River Basin, the ecological degradation problem has currently been successfully alleviated through ecological water conveyance [41].

2.2. Species Occurrence Sites

Species occurrence records were collected via (1) the Global Biodiversity Information Facility on P. euphratica (GBIF Occurrence Download. Available online: https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.rn7bec (accessed on 13 May 2024) [42]); (2) a dataset related to P. euphratica [43]; and (3) papers on P. euphratica [44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56]. To mitigate the risk of overfitting, the “Trim Duplicate Occurrences” tool within ENMTools 1.4.4 was employed to filter the species occurrence data used in this research. This process ensured that only one distribution point of P. euphratica was reserved for each 2.5 min grid. A total of 127 P. euphratica occurrence data points were finally obtained (Table S1).

2.3. Environmental Variables

In our study, we identified a number of environmental variables that may influence P. euphratica distribution, including bioclimate, groundwater resources, available water storage capacity (AWC_CLASS), elevation, distance to rivers, and stocking rate data. Bioclimatic variables for the periods 1970–2000 and 2000–2019, as well as the elevation variable, were accessed through the WorldClim (https://worldclim.org, accessed on 12 June 2024). Considering the influence of hydrological factors on species spatial distribution, we introduced distance to rivers as a new environmental variable representing hydrological influences [57]. This variable is derived from existing river distribution data. Grazing rate data were extracted from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (https://www.fao.org, accessed on 29 April 2024) and the county-level statistics of Xinjiang (https://tjj.xinjiang.gov.cn, accessed on 29 April 2024). Groundwater resource data were downloaded from two sources: (1) the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center (NCDC) for the period 1980–2000 [58] and (2) the Water Resources Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (https://slt.xinjiang.gov.cn, accessed on 29 November 2024) for 2014–2021. AWC is the available water storage capacity per unit of soil, and the unit is mm/m. AWC_CLASS categorizes soils based on their AWC values, ranging from Class 1 (150 mm/m) to Class 7 (0 mm/m). AWC_CLASS data were selected from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center for 1995 [59,60] and the NCDC for 2009 [61,62]. Elevation, distance to rivers, stocking rate, AWC_CLASS, and groundwater resources data were spatialized and converted to the same 2.5 min resolution as the bioclimate data. All environmental variables were transformed into the world geodetic system-1984 coordinate system (WGS 1984).
Many environmental variables may exhibit high spatial correlation, potentially leading to model overfitting [57]. Therefore, the Correlation tool in ENMTools and the percent contribution results from the MaxEnt model were applied to assess the environmental variables. Correlation coefficient |r| ≥ 0.8 variables with minor contribution were excluded from the analysis [29,63,64]. Ultimately, 12 variables were identified as the final environmental factors (Table 1).

2.4. Model Description and Setup

Maxent is a machine learning-based method [65]. The MaxEnt model effectively addresses the problems of subjectivity and uncertainty in conventional machine learning models, therefore increasing the overall reliability of the model [66]. The maximum entropy principle considers the target species and the regions suitable for its survival as an integrated system. When this system reaches its maximum entropy, the resulting state parameters can be used to represent the stable relationship between the species and the regions suitable for its survival. Subsequently, the stable relationship will be employed to establish the species’ distribution modeling framework [21].
Based on this principle, a maximum entropy probability distribution was constructed using 127 occurrence records of P. euphratica and 12 environmental variables, with the aim of estimating the species’ potential suitable habitat range. Let the unknown probability distribution of P. euphratica in the environmental space be denoted as π , where the target region is defined as the Tarim River Basin, represented by a finite set X . Each element x refers to a grid cell within X , and π ( x ) denotes the non-negative probability of species occurrence at point x , subject to the constraint ∑ π x = 1 . The optimal distribution is selected as the one with the highest entropy, denoted as π ^ , whose entropy is given by [21]:
H π ^ = − ∑ x ∈ X π ^ ( x ) ln π ^ ( x )
Three scenarios were created to quantify P. euphratica habitat suitability response to climate change and ecological water conveyance: scenario NCC indicates no climate change; scenario CC represents climate change; and scenario EWC symbolizes ecological water conveyance (Table 2). Among them, both scenario CC and scenario EWC are based on current bioclimatic variables, and scenario NCC is based on past bioclimatic variables. Scenarios NCC and CC assessed climate change effects on the suitable habitat for P. euphratica. Scenarios CC and EWC were compared to explore ecological water conveyance’s effect on habitat distribution.
The three sets of environmental variables were respectively integrated with the 127 occurrence points of P. euphratica into the MaxEnt 3.4.4 (Figure 2). The latitude and longitude information of P. euphratica was randomly divided into two parts: 75% was used to train the MaxEnt model, and 25% was used for verification [67,68]. The model was run for 10 independent replicates. The replicated run type was bootstrap. The maximum number of iterations was set to 500.

2.5. Model Evaluation and Classification of Suitability Levels

In species distribution models, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is an essential tool for evaluating the validity of the model [69]. The accuracy of the model’s predictions is evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). A greater AUC shows higher accuracy, as it reflects better model performance [21]. According to Swets [70], AUC values are classified into five performance categories: poor (0 < AUC ≤ 0.6), moderate (0.6 <AUC ≤ 0.7), good (0.7 < AUC ≤ 0.8), very good (0.8 < AUC ≤ 0.9), and excellent (0.9 < AUC ≤ 1).
The suitability of the growth environment for P. euphratica was predicted, and based on the relevant probability values, it was divided into four different suitability levels. These categories were as follows: a probability range of 0 to 0.12 was classified as unsuitable; 0.12 to 0.25 as low suitable; 0.25 to 0.5 as moderately suitable; and 0.5 to 1 as highly suitable.

3. Results

3.1. Assessment of Prediction Results

During the model validation process, we used AUC values as a key criterion to assess the model’s predictive accuracy. The model’s mean AUC was 0.957 (SD: 0.007) across three scenarios, demonstrating high predictive performance (Table 3).

3.2. Contribution of Environmental Variables

The percent contribution results identified the essential environmental variables affecting P. euphratica distribution and assessed the comparative importance of each variable (Figure 3).
In the results for percent contribution, the distance to rivers contributed over 50% in the three scenarios. It can be inferred that distance to rivers contained significant information not captured by other variables. Thus, distance to rivers emerged as the predominant variable governing P. euphratica distribution patterns. Based on the percent contribution analysis across the three scenarios, we identified five key determinants governing P. euphratica distribution patterns: distance to rivers, elevation, AWC_CLASS, groundwater resources, and Bio7 (Temperature Annual Range).

3.3. Suitable Habitat Distribution for P. euphratica

Three scenarios were simulated for the potential distribution of P. euphratica based on the MaxEnt model. The suitable habitats were classified into predefined categories (Figure 4). The habitat areas of P. euphratica across four types were subsequently quantified (Figure 5).
Analysis of the species distribution models under three scenarios revealed that P. euphratica predominantly occupied riparian zones. The highly suitable habitat of P. euphratica was predominantly aligned along rivers, surrounded by concentric zones of moderately and low suitable habitats extending outward. The total suitable distributions for P. euphratica, as observed, primarily concentrated along the Tarim River and its tributaries. Among them, the downstream region of the Tarim River has the richest concentration of suitable habitats. The highly suitable habitat is primarily found in the central and downstream regions of the Tarim, Qarqan, Yarkant, and Kashgar Rivers. It is also present in the lower regions of the Kaidu, Aksu, and Weigan Rivers, and in the mid-reaches of the Hotan and Keriya Rivers. Additionally, the Peacock River hosts this highly suitable habitat. In the northern region of the Tarim River’s middle reaches and the downstream area of the Keriya River, as well as outside the ranges of moderately and highly suitable habitats, low suitability areas are distributed.
Table 4 shows that approximately 50% of P. euphratica populations were found within 10 km of river channels, ranging from 49.58% (scenario EWC) to 55.77% (scenario CC). Beyond 40 km from riverine systems, the species occurrence declined sharply, with scenario EWC showing the highest proportion (10.47%).

3.4. Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of P. euphratica

Compared to scenario NCC, the influence of climate change (scenario CC) resulted in a 6.01% reduction in the total suitable habitats for P. euphratica, where declines were observed at all suitability levels (Figure 4 and Figure 5). The suitable habitats for low, moderate, and high suitability categories decreased by 7.74%, 2.48%, and 7.71%, respectively. Highly suitable habitat loss primarily occurred along the lower Tarim River, together with central and downstream sections of the Yarkant and Peacock Rivers, while low suitable habitat diminished mainly in the lower reaches of both the Tarim and Keriya Rivers. By contrast, both moderately and low suitable habitats located on the northern bank of the middle section of Tarim River exhibited areal expansion.
Figure 6a illustrates the changes in suitable habitat resulting from the effect of climate change. Climate change has reduced the total suitable habitat area for P. euphratica by approximately 2.36 × 104 km2, with the most significant losses occurring in downstream regions of the Tarim and Hotan Rivers. The habitat expansion due to climate change covered approximately 1.25 × 104 km2. This expansion was primarily distributed in the mid-lower reaches of the Tarim River, with additional occurrences in the upper Aksu River, the central Keriya River, and the lower Weigan River.

3.5. Impact of Ecological Water Conveyance on the Distribution of P. euphratica

Ecological water conveyance (scenario EWC) increased the total suitable habitats for P. euphratica by 19.94%, compared to scenario CC (Figure 5). This increase was observed in the suitable habitats across all suitability levels, with each level showing a significant expansion in area (Figure 4). Low, moderately, and highly suitable habitats expanded by 26.66%, 15.96%, and 11.24%, respectively. The increase in low suitable habitat, which was primarily located on the western side of the downstream regions of the Tarim River and along both the northern and southern banks of the middle reaches, is highlighted. The central Tarim River exhibited a considerable increase in moderately suitable habitat. The expansion of highly suitable distribution was predominantly observed in the lower reaches of the Tarim and Peacock Rivers.
Figure 6b demonstrates that ecological water conveyance directly induced habitat suitability improvements, triggering considerable range expansions of P. euphratica populations. The expansion area exceeded the contraction area caused by climate change, amounting to approximately 3.9 × 104 km2. This expansion was predominantly concentrated along both the northern and southern banks of the middle regions of the Tarim River, as well as along the western side of the lower reaches. The contracted area was only 0.42 × 104 km2. However, the distribution of the contracted habitats was highly fragmented. The regions that remained unchanged under both effects were largely similar to each other. The area remaining unchanged under the ecological water conveyance effect is 0.75 × 104 km2 larger than that under the climate change effect.

3.6. Shift in the Distribution Center of P. euphratica

The impact of climate change and ecological water conveyance on the expansion and unchanged regions of the distribution range of P. euphratica were assessed by calculating the standard deviation ellipse and center point (Figure 7).
Owing to climate change, the center of the P. euphratica distribution area is situated outside the Hotan River Basin, with coordinates at 39°50′ N, 80°67′ E. In contrast, following applied ecological water conveyance, the centroid shifts to within the Hotan River Basin at coordinates 39°17′ N, 80°92′ E, indicating a shift of approximately 43.46 km to the southeast. Both the standard deviation ellipses exhibit a northeast-southwest directional characteristic. Compared to the standard deviation ellipse for climate change, after ecological water conveyance, the ellipse’s orientation angle rotated from 75.96° to 70.84°. Additionally, while the semi-major axis increased from 483.45 km to 539.53 km, the semi-minor axis slightly decreased from 234.68 km to 232.37 km, with flattening increasing from 0.51 to 0.57 (Table 5). These observations suggest that climate change has led to a gradual concentration of the spatial distribution P. euphratica, with contraction in the northeast-southwest direction, a weakening of the directional characteristic, and a trend toward an east-west distribution. In contrast, ecological water conveyance has caused a gradual dispersion of the P. euphratica distribution area, with expansion in the northeast-southwest direction, a strengthening of the directional characteristic, and a trend toward a north-south distribution. This could be linked to climate change, which causes high groundwater resources to concentrate in the northwestern basin. Conversely, following ecological water conveyance, groundwater resources became predominantly clustered in the basin’s southeastern sector.

4. Discussion

4.1. Rationality of MaxEnt Model and Limitations

Some studies have demonstrated that the MaxEnt model is commonly used for predicting the habitats of species [71,72,73]. The model achieved an average AUC of 0.957, which indicates exceptional model performance. AUC values close to 1 indicate nearly perfect predictive accuracy [74], confirming that the model accurately reflects the ecological preferences of the species [75]. The metric results indicate that the MaxEnt model demonstrates high accuracy and reliability in evaluating how climate change and ecological water conveyance influence P. euphratica’s distribution across the basin.
The MaxEnt model is an empirical model [76]. Although the model can reveal the correlation between species distribution and environmental variables [76], it does not explicitly explore the causal relationship between them [77]. Therefore, the environmental variables identified in the MaxEnt model should be regarded as potential drivers of species distribution, with further research required to explore the underlying causal mechanisms.
The presence of only one occurrence record per grid can mitigate sampling bias and reduce the phenomenon of overfitting in model development [78]. The spatial filtering approach employed in this study guarantees that there is only one occurrence record in every 2.5 min grid, but this approach may neglect the ecological value of high-density species distribution areas [74]. Moreover, the water table also influences P. euphratica. Due to the complexity and uncertainty associated with the water table, it was not incorporated into our models.

4.2. Analysis of Major Environmental Variables

The predictions from the MaxEnt model indicate that the primary environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of P. euphratica under the three scenarios include distance to rivers, elevation, AWC_CLASS, groundwater resources, and Bio7 (Temperature Annual Range).
In this study, the distance to rivers was recognized as a significant variable influencing the spread of P. euphratica, accounting for an average of 52.67% in the predictive scenarios. The area where P. euphratica can survive expands as the proximity to the rivers decreases. Highly suitable habitat is predominantly distributed near the river, while low suitable habitat is mainly located in areas far from rivers. On average, over 50% of P. euphratica live within 10 km of rivers. As demonstrated by Zhang et al., the geographical distribution of P. euphratica habitats is influenced by their distance to rivers [57]. In addition, Aishan et al. showed that biomass of P. euphratica decreased with increasing distance to the river [79]. Therefore, water is the primary factor that determines both the distribution area and extent of P. euphratica.
Elevation is seen as a critical factor that influences patterns of species diversity distribution and can affect the climate, water distribution, and the types of vegetative communities to some extent [80,81,82]. From the output of the predictive model, P. euphratica exhibited a preference for habitats located at elevations ranging from 593 to 2864 m under scenario NCC. The altitudinal distribution of P. euphratica, ranging from 593 m to 2915 m, is a result of climate change. Under climate change, P. euphratica shows an elevational distribution shift toward higher altitudes, which may be associated with increased snow and ice meltwater in high-altitude regions [83,84,85,86].
Given the extreme aridity climate of the downstream regions of the Tarim River where atmospheric precipitation is ecologically negligible, groundwater (soil moisture) serves as the essential water source for sustaining natural vegetation [13]. The contributions of groundwater and soil water (AWC_CLASS) are much lower than that of the distance to rivers in this study. Flooding disturbance is essential for P. euphratica seeds to germinate [87]. Thus, proximity to rivers increases flood risk, enhances conditions favoring P. euphratica growth.
The groundwater resources also have an impact on the distribution of P. euphratica. Ecological water conveyance has enhanced groundwater resources in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, consequently leading to an extension of P. euphratica’s distribution in this region. The distribution of P. euphratica is primarily influenced by Bio7 (Temperature Annual Range), suggesting that temperature plays a key role in affecting its distribution, with Bio7 values recorded between 36.95 and 53.5 °C.

4.3. Spatial Distribution of Suitable Habitat for P. euphratica

In arid regions, surface water resources constitute a critical and irreplaceable component of the total water supply system, significantly contributing to both economic development and ecological sustainability [88,89]. Areas with favorable hydrological conditions are suitable for the growth of P. euphratica, such as river systems and their surrounding areas. The low and moderately suitability zones are mainly located along the periphery of the highly suitable habitat in fragmented patterns, showing asymmetric expansion characteristics. Habitat fragmentation can occur due to both natural factors, such as abiotic and biotic elements creating landscape patchiness, and anthropogenic disturbances, which have increased and worsened habitat fragmentation worldwide [90]. The largest P. euphratica distribution occurs in the Tarim River’s downstream section, followed by the middle reaches. This might be attributed to the water resources of the desert riparian forests, which are mainly characterized by P. euphratica and are primarily replenished by the Tarim River, with additional water provided through ecological water conveyance [91].
Guo developed a random forest model based on remote sensing imagery to capture the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of P. euphratica [92]. The findings indicate that between 1990 and 2000, the primary distribution areas of P. euphratica were along the Tarim, Hotan, Kashgar, Yarkant, Keriya, Aksu, Weigan, Qarqan, and Peacock rivers, which aligns with the distribution of P. euphratica under scenario NCC.

4.4. Effects of Climate Change and Ecological Water Conveyance on the Distribution of P. euphratica

The growth and survival of P. euphratica are dependent on water resources [93]. Therefore, climate change will cause drier conditions, which are expected to reduce the suitable habitat area of P. euphratica by about 2.36 × 104 km2. However, ecological water conveyance could provide additional water resources. This may expand the suitable distribution area of P. euphratica by about 3.9 × 104 km2. The distribution area for P. euphratica will greatly shrink, moving from the riverbank to the river center, as predicted by Lei et al. across four future climate scenarios [94]. Our findings align with this, as scenario CC suggests that climate change will cause the habitat range of P. euphratica to contract towards the river. In contrast, scenario EWC indicates that ecological water conveyance will help expand the suitable habitat, especially in areas farther from the river.
The Tarim River Basin is ecologically vulnerable and currently faces several critical issues, including groundwater level decline, ecological degradation, and desertification [95,96,97]. P. euphratica, which depends on groundwater, has experienced a substantial reduction in its distribution as groundwater levels decline [98]. Under the NCC scenario, groundwater contributes 2.8% to the distribution of P. euphratica. However, due to climate change, this contribution decreases to 2.7%, causing a large reduction in suitable habitat area. In contrast, ecological water conveyance increased the contribution rate of groundwater to 3.6%. This measure effectively expanded the suitable growing area for P. euphratica.
Both surface and groundwater resources have been notably improved by the implementation of ecological water conveyance, leading to a substantial expansion in the suitable habitat area for P. euphratica. Ecological water conveyance uses the traditional flood irrigation method [99]. Compared to drip irrigation and sprinkler systems, flood irrigation offers significant advantages in replenishing groundwater and mitigating soil salinization [100,101,102]. Therefore, although the distribution of P. euphratica is negatively impacted by climate change, an effective solution to mitigate this adverse impact and expand the species’ suitable habitat is provided by the implementation of ecological water conveyance.

4.5. Evolution of the Distribution Center of P. euphratica

Climate change will lead to a dual shift in the suitable habitat of P. euphratica, moving vertically towards lower elevation areas closer to river systems and horizontally towards the northwest direction in terms of geographical distribution center [94]. The findings of our study, consistent with Lei et al. [94], project that the suitable growing region for P. euphratica will shift northwest due to the influence of climate change.
P. euphratica has a relatively concentrated spatial distribution under the climate change scenario. Because of ecological water conveyance, the spatial distribution of P. euphratica has undergone notable changes: directional distribution has become more pronounced, while spatial dispersion has increased. The distribution center of P. euphratica shifted 43.46 km southeastward from the Taklimakan Desert to the Hotan River Basin, demonstrating that the species’ distribution trend is shifting toward the southeastern part of the basin.
In arid and desert regions, groundwater is a vital water source for plant growth [103,104]. Under the climate change scenario, the high values of groundwater resources are primarily concentrated in the Aksu Prefecture, situated in the upper regions of the Tarim River. Consequently, the distribution center of P. euphratica is shifting toward the northwest. The successful implementation of ecological water conveyance can promote the rise of groundwater levels [105]. Ecological water conveyance has not only led to high groundwater levels being observed in the Aksu region but also to the same situation being discovered in the Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. Therefore, ecological water conveyance has driven a southeastward displacement of the distribution center.

4.6. Recommendations for Ecological Water Conveyance

Research indicates that ecological water conveyance plays a pivotal role in restoring degraded riparian ecosystems in the Tarim River Basin [41]. Therefore, the degraded P. euphratica forests in the lower Tarim River are now exhibiting signs of recovery following ecological water conveyance [106]. However, too much ecological water conveyance has led to the sodium and chloride ions in the soil going up, damaging the physiological functions of P. euphratica and threatening the stability of its forests in areas near the Tarim River, including Xinquman, Yingbaza, and Alar [99]. Moreover, since the P. euphratica forests far from the major river channels cannot obtain water from ecological water conveyance projects, the overall ecological quality of these areas remains poor [99]. Our results predicts that the suitability of the distribution environment for P. euphratica in these locations is generally moderate to low.
To enhance the efficacy of ecological water conveyance, in-depth research into groundwater table restoration methodologies is imperative, as these will directly facilitate the expansion of the vegetation restoration area along the river [107]. Additionally, ecological water conveyance should focus on scientific stability and achieve optimal and high-efficiency utilization of water resources [106], particularly in areas where P. euphratica grows far from the river. Excessive and prolonged overflow events are detrimental to plant diversity restoration, whereas moderate flood disturbances can help restore vegetation in the Tarim River Basin [108,109].

5. Conclusions

Using the MaxEnt modeling approach, we investigated the distribution characteristics of the habitat of P. euphratica in the Tarim River Basin, specifically evaluating how climate change and ecological water conveyance influence habitat suitability. The predicted results were considered reliable. Distance to river water is identified as the most influential variable determining P. euphratica distribution. Under the background of climate change, the suitable habitat range of P. euphratica in the Tarim River Basin will show a shrinking trend. However, long-term ecological water conveyance has significantly alleviated the trend of habitat degradation of P. euphratica and may also facilitate the expansion of its suitable distribution. Ecological water conveyance will cause the suitable habitat of P. euphratica to shift towards the southeast in the region. In the process of ecological restoration, areas suitable for planting P. euphratica must be selected based on the conditions conducive to its growth, while areas unsuitable for planting should be avoided. Through the analysis of suitable habitats, we have defined the spatial layout range for ecological restoration, providing both theoretical support and practical guidance for future restoration efforts.

Supplementary Materials

The following supporting information can be downloaded at: https://www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/su17177854/s1, Table S1. P. euphratica occurrence data points.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, Q.H.; Methodology, Q.H.; Software, W.H.; Validation, Q.H.; Investigation, Q.H.; Resources, Q.H.; Data Curation, Q.H., W.H., and H.W.; Writing—Original Draft Preparation, Q.H. and W.H.; Writing—Review and Editing, Q.H. and W.H.; Project Administration, Q.H.; Funding Acquisition, Q.H. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This work was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFC3206803) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42271493).

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The article has already stated the sources of the data required for the model in this study.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

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Figure 1. Occurrence records of P. euphratica in the Tarim River Basin.
Figure 1. Occurrence records of P. euphratica in the Tarim River Basin.
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Figure 2. Flowchart of this study.
Figure 2. Flowchart of this study.
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Figure 3. Percent contribution results of environmental variables ((a) scenario NCC; (b) scenario CC; (c) scenario EWC).
Figure 3. Percent contribution results of environmental variables ((a) scenario NCC; (b) scenario CC; (c) scenario EWC).
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Figure 4. Spatial distribution of predicted suitable habitats for P. euphratica under three scenarios: (a) scenario NCC; (b) scenario CC; (c) scenario EWC.
Figure 4. Spatial distribution of predicted suitable habitats for P. euphratica under three scenarios: (a) scenario NCC; (b) scenario CC; (c) scenario EWC.
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Figure 5. Area of suitable habitats for P. euphratica in four different habitat types: (a) unsuitable habitat; (b) low suitable habitat; (c) moderately suitable habitat; (d) highly suitable habitat.
Figure 5. Area of suitable habitats for P. euphratica in four different habitat types: (a) unsuitable habitat; (b) low suitable habitat; (c) moderately suitable habitat; (d) highly suitable habitat.
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Figure 6. Changes in potential habitat distribution of P. euphratica: (a) climate change effect; (b) ecological water conveyance effect.
Figure 6. Changes in potential habitat distribution of P. euphratica: (a) climate change effect; (b) ecological water conveyance effect.
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Figure 7. Potential distribution center of P. euphratica under two effects.
Figure 7. Potential distribution center of P. euphratica under two effects.
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Table 1. Modeling variables.
Table 1. Modeling variables.
VariableDescriptionUnit
Bio2Mean Diurnal Range°C
Bio3Isothermality%
Bio7Temperature Annual Range°C
Bio8Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter°C
Bio10Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter°C
Bio12Annual Precipitationmm
Bio14Precipitation of Driest Monthmm
Groundwater ResourcesGroundwater Resources Amount×108 m3
AWC_CLASSClassification of Available Water Capacity/
ElevationElevationm
Distance to RiversDistance to Riverskm
Stocking RateStocking Ratehead/hm2
Table 2. Variables used in three scenarios.
Table 2. Variables used in three scenarios.
Scenario NCCScenario CCScenario EWC
Different variablesbio-clim (1970–2000)bio-clim (2000–2019)bio-clim (2000–2019)
Groundwater Resources (1980–2000)Groundwater Resources (1980–2000)Groundwater Resources (2014–2021)
AWC_CLASS (1995)AWC_CLASS (1995)AWC_CLASS (2009)
Same variablesElevationElevationElevation
Distance to RiversDistance to RiversDistance to Rivers
Stocking RateStocking RateStocking Rate
Table 3. AUC values for modeling the habitat distribution of P. euphratica across three scenarios.
Table 3. AUC values for modeling the habitat distribution of P. euphratica across three scenarios.
ScenarioAUCmeanAUCmean Standard Deviation
NCC0.9580.006
CC0.9610.008
EWC0.9530.006
Table 4. Proportions of P. euphratica suitable habitat by distance to rivers under three scenarios.
Table 4. Proportions of P. euphratica suitable habitat by distance to rivers under three scenarios.
0–10 km10–40 km≥40 km
Scenario NCC54.9537.207.85
Scenario CC55.7735.798.44
Scenario EWC49.5839.9510.47
Table 5. Parameters of standard deviation ellipse under two effects.
Table 5. Parameters of standard deviation ellipse under two effects.
Semi-Major Axis (km)Semi-Minor Axis (km)FlatteningOrientation Angle (°)
Climate Change
Effect		483.45234.680.5175.96
Ecological Water Conveyance
Effect		539.53232.370.5770.84
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Huang, W.; Han, Q.; Wang, H. Effects of Climate Change and Ecological Water Conveyance on the Suitable Distribution of Populus euphratica in Tarim River Basin. Sustainability 2025, 17, 7854. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177854

AMA Style

Huang W, Han Q, Wang H. Effects of Climate Change and Ecological Water Conveyance on the Suitable Distribution of Populus euphratica in Tarim River Basin. Sustainability. 2025; 17(17):7854. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177854

Chicago/Turabian Style

Huang, Wenyin, Qifei Han, and Haitao Wang. 2025. "Effects of Climate Change and Ecological Water Conveyance on the Suitable Distribution of Populus euphratica in Tarim River Basin" Sustainability 17, no. 17: 7854. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177854

APA Style

Huang, W., Han, Q., & Wang, H. (2025). Effects of Climate Change and Ecological Water Conveyance on the Suitable Distribution of Populus euphratica in Tarim River Basin. Sustainability, 17(17), 7854. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177854

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