Analysis of Risk Factors in the Renovation of Old Underground Commercial Spaces in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Fushun City

Abstract

Resource-exhausted cities have long played a key role in national energy development. Urban renewal projects, such as the renovation of old underground commercial spaces, can improve urban vitality and promote sustainable development. However, in resource-based cities, traditional industries dominate, while new industries such as modern commerce develop slowly. This results in low economic dynamism and weak motivation for urban development. To address this issue, we propose a systematic method for analyzing construction risks during the decision-making stage of renovation projects. The method includes three steps: risk value assessment, risk factor identification, and risk weight calculation. First, unlike previous studies that only used SWOT for risk factor analysis, we also applied it for project value assessment. Then, using the Work Breakdown Structure–Risk Breakdown Structure framework method (WBS-RBS), we identified specific risk sources by analyzing key construction technologies throughout the entire lifecycle of the renovation project. Finally, to enhance expert consensus, we proposed an improved Delphi–Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Delphi–AHP) to calculate risk indicator weights for different construction phases. The risk analysis covered all lifecycle stages of the renovation and upgrading project. The results show that in the Fushun city renovation case study, the established framework—consisting of five first-level indicators and twenty s-level indicators—enables analysis of renovation projects. Among these, management factors and human factors were identified as the most critical, with weights of 0.3608 and 0.2017, respectively. The proposed method provides a structured approach to evaluating renovation risks, taking into account the specific characteristics of construction work. This can serve as a useful reference for ensuring safe and efficient implementation of underground commercial space renovation projects in resource-exhausted cities.

1. Introduction

Urban renewal is an important approach to promoting economic transformation and redevelopment in resource-exhausted cities. Post-mining cities and industrially abandoned cities are typical examples of such areas. Martinat et al. [1] analyzed the key factors affecting planning and development in Czech cities characterized by heavy industry and mining, using case studies. Krzysztofik et al. [2] investigated the social dimensions and urban planning challenges of post-mining cities in Sosnowiec, Poland. Ntema et al. [3] studied residents’ willingness to stay in Australian mining towns after mine closures, offering insights into the sustainable development of cities in post-mining contexts. Several scholars have explored specific strategies for the transformation of resource-based cities. For example, Jin et al. [4] suggested that converting abandoned urban sites into farms or community shelters can effectively improve residents’ well-being. Riley et al. [5] argued that transforming vacant land by introducing non-native trees in Ohio, USA, is a feasible urban revitalization strategy. Cui et al. [6] reviewed literature on urban renewal approaches and emphasized that underground space redevelopment is both a valuable resource and a practical tool for urban regeneration. Peng et al. [7] studied the optimal location for underground shopping centers in Osaka, Japan, providing a basis for site selection in urban renovation. Kim et al. [8] investigated the influencing factors of indoor air quality in underground shopping malls.

Most studies on underground commercial spaces have been conducted in developed countries, which may not fully reflect the specific conditions of developing countries like China. In China, the State Council issued the Guidelines on Continuously Advancing Urban Renewal [9], along with various local government policies supporting the renovation of underground commercial spaces. These policy initiatives have become critical drivers for the transformation of resource-exhausted cities. Some scholars have begun to explore the feasibility of underground commercial space renovation in the Chinese context. For example, Tang et al. [10] studied the spatial distribution patterns and driving forces of underground commercial consumption in China’s mega cities. Li et al. [11] investigated and evaluated thermal comfort levels in Chinese underground shopping centers. Furthermore, a growing body of research suggests that risk assessment plays a key role in implementing renovation strategies in resource-based cities. Svobodova et al. [12] analyzed the risks associated with energy transition in mining-based cities in the United States. Alhowaish et al. [13] evaluated the feasibility of circular economy transformation in resource-dependent cities in Saudi Arabia to promote regional economic development. Masoud et al. [14] conducted experimental testing and spatial modeling in Egypt to investigate geotechnical risks related to urban renovation.

Existing research on the influencing factors of construction risks in underground commercial space renovation has mainly focused on methodological improvements. For example, Hong et al. [15] analyzed the performance and influencing factors of urban underground commercial spaces. Yao et al. [16] evaluated optimal design dimensions based on users’ psychological perception. Zhang et al. [17] applied the Analytic Hierarchy Process to assess the factors affecting user-perceived comfort in underground commercial areas. However, these studies often overlook the specific characteristics of aging underground commercial spaces and provide limited guidance for the transformation of resource-based cities. Moreover, single-method evaluation approaches tend to suffer from inconsistency and subjectivity. To address these limitations, this study adopts an integrated approach. We make three key contributions to risk analysis in urban renewal projects. First, we significantly extend the application scope of SWOT analysis by developing a dual-function framework that integrates conventional risk factor identification with systematic project value assessment, thereby enhancing decision-making comprehensiveness. Second, we establish a novel risk identification system through the original integration of WBS-RBS methodology with full lifecycle analysis, enabling holistic risk tracking across all renovation phases from planning to completion. Finally, we develop an improved Delphi–AHP approach that incorporates consistency optimization algorithms to significantly enhance expert consensus in risk evaluation, effectively addressing the subjectivity limitations that have constrained traditional hierarchical methods. Through a structured approach consisting of investigation–analysis–case application, we propose a comprehensive analytical framework for assessing renovation-related risk factors, with specific research aims as below: (1) To provide a novel systematic methodology for construction risk analysis in urban renewal projects. (2) To offer empirical case evidence to support decision-making for renovation initiatives in resource-exhausted cities. (3) To deliver actionable solutions for risk management and control in urban renewal projects within resource-depleted cities of developing countries.

2. Methodology

The proposed method for evaluating decision-making stage construction risks in renovation projects consists of three main components. First, the SWOT method is applied to assess the renovation value of aging underground commercial spaces and to identify key risk factors. Second, the WBS-RBS framework is used to identify potential sources of renovation risks. Third, the Delphi–AHP method is employed to calculate the weights of risk indicators. Finally, the results are integrated to perform a comprehensive analysis of the risk factors associated with the renovation of old underground commercial spaces. The overall workflow of the proposed approach is illustrated in Figure 1.

2.1. Value Judgment and Risk Factors Screening

The SWOT method is widely used in strategic planning, marketing, and project management. It is a situational analysis method based on internal and external competitive environments and conditions [18]. In this study, the SWOT method is introduced to assess the renovation of underground commercial spaces in resource-based cities. The resource-based city is considered as the “internal environment”, similar to a company, while other cities represent the “external environment”. Based on this framework, we analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) related to the renovation of aging underground commercial spaces. This five-dimensional analysis helps to identify and organize the key risk factors affecting renovation construction.

Table 1. SWOT analysis table.

	Advantages Factors	Disadvantages Factors
Internal factors	Strengths	Weaknesses
External factors	Opportunities	Threats

. displays the SWOT analysis matrix detailing internal and external factors.

2.2. Risk Source Identification

The WBS-RBS method is a risk identification method that tightly integrates project scope with risk analysis. It involves using the WBS method to decompose the project into distinct phases and tasks, clearly defining responsibilities at each stage [19]. Based on this structure, the RBS method is developed to classify and categorize risks according to the overall project architecture, implementation process, and organizational structure. Given that urban renewal projects typically follow a defined construction sequence, the WBS-RBS-based risk identification method helps to overcome the limitations of single-method approaches. It embeds risk identification into each phase of the project, enhancing the specificity and effectiveness of risk management throughout the construction process.

2.3. Risk Indicator Weight

The Delphi method enables the comprehensive integration of expert knowledge and experience to identify and assess key risk factors in the renovation of aging underground commercial spaces in resource-exhausted cities [20]. This approach provides a scientifically sound basis for the construction of subsequent risk evaluation models. Given its wide applicability, the quartile-based Delphi method is adopted for collecting data used in the AHP pairwise comparison matrix. Assume that n experts provide predicted values Z_n for a given factor, and these values are ordered as Z₁ ≤ Z₂ ≤ … ≤ Z_k … ≤ Z_n. The median value of this sequence is taken to represent the central tendency of expert opinions, while the upper and lower quartiles reflect the dispersion of expert judgments. In practice, the median is often close to the mean and can be expressed as

$$\overline{Z}=\left\{\begin{array}{ll}{Z}_{k+1}\hfill & ,n=2k+1\hfill \\ (Z_k+Z_{k+1})/2\hfill & ,n=2k\hfill \end{array}\right.$$

(1)

Let Z_U and Z_L decibels be the upper and lower quartiles. The expressions are as follows:

$$Z_U=\left\{\begin{array}{ll}{Z}_{(3k+3)/2}\hfill & , n=2k+1, k \mathrm{is} \mathrm{an} \mathrm{odd} \mathrm{number}\hfill \\ (Z_{1+3k/2}+Z_{2+3k/2})/2\hfill & , n=2k+1, k \mathrm{is} \mathrm{an} \mathrm{even} \mathrm{number}\hfill \\ Z_{(3k+1)/2}\hfill & , n=2k,\hspace{1em}k \mathrm{is} \mathrm{an} \mathrm{odd} \mathrm{number}\hfill \\ (Z_{3k/2}+Z_{1+3k/2})/2\hfill & , n=2k,\hspace{1em}k \mathrm{is} \mathrm{an} \mathrm{even} \mathrm{number}\hfill \end{array}\right.$$

(2)

$$ZL=\left\{\begin{array}{ll}{Z}_{(k+1)/2}\hfill & , n=2k+1,\hspace{1em} k \mathrm{is} \mathrm{an} \mathrm{odd} \mathrm{number}\hfill \\ (Z_{k/2}+Z_{1+k/2})/2\hfill & , n=2k+1,\hspace{1em} k \mathrm{is} \mathrm{an} \mathrm{even} \mathrm{number}\hfill \\ Z_{(k+1)/2}\hfill & , n=2k,\hspace{1em} \hspace{1em} k \mathrm{is} \mathrm{an} \mathrm{odd} \mathrm{number}\hfill \\ (Z_{k/2}+Z_{1+k/2})/2\hfill & , n=2k,\hspace{1em}\hspace{1em}k \mathrm{is} \mathrm{an} \mathrm{even} \mathrm{number}\hfill \end{array}\right.$$

(3)

This method encourages experts to provide clear and quantitative responses. It features a straightforward statistical process, transparent feedback, and well-defined results, which facilitates the understanding of the evaluation process. Based on the obtained pairwise comparison matrix A, the maximum eigenvalue (λ_max) of the matrix can be calculated. This value is essential for checking the consistency of the judgment matrix in the AHP.

$$A_{ij}=\left(\begin{array}{cccccc}\overline{Z}11& \overline{Z}12& \dots & \overline{Z}1k& \dots & \overline{Z}1n\\ \overline{Z}21& \overline{Z}22& \dots & \overline{Z}2k& \dots & \overline{Z}2n\\ ⋮& \ddots & \hspace{1em}& \hspace{1em}& \hspace{1em}& ⋮\\ \overline{Z}k1& \hspace{1em}& \ddots & \hspace{1em}& \hspace{1em}& \overline{Z}kn\\ ⋮& \hspace{1em}& \hspace{1em}& \ddots & \hspace{1em}& ⋮\\ \overline{Z}n1& \overline{Z}n2& \dots & \overline{Z}nk& \dots & \overline{Z}nn\end{array}\right), i, j\in [1,n]$$

(4)

$${\lambda }_{\max }={\displaystyle \frac{1}{n}}{\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^n\frac{{(AijW)}_i}{W_i}}$$

(5)

where A is the judgment matrix; λ_max is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix A_ij; n is the order of the matrix, i.e., the number of criteria in the hierarchical subsystem; W_i is the eigenvector of matrix A; (A_ijW)_i is the i-th element of the vector resulting from the multiplication of matrix A_ij and eigenvector W_i.

Then, the Consistency Index (CI) is calculated, followed by the Consistency Ratio (CR) to test the logical consistency of the judgment matrix. The formulas are as follows

CI = (λ_max − n)/(n − 1)

(6)

CR = CI/RI

(7)

where λ_max is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix; n is the order of the matrix; and RI is the average Random Index, which depends on the matrix order n. The consistency of the matrix is considered acceptable if CR < 0.10; otherwise, the judgment matrix needs to be revised.

3. Case Study

3.1. Case Background

The physical and operational characteristics of the site are summarized in

Table 2. Site condition summary.

Category	Current Status/Issues	Data/Explanation
Building structure	Reinforced concrete frame structure with floor height of 4–5 m; large renovation space; outdated layout; lacks barrier-free facilities and smart navigation functions.	Wall cracks and water leakage observed; carbonation depth up to 30 mm; poor ventilation affects operations and traffic, posing potential safety risks.
Property rights	Complicated property ownership; difficult coordination of stakeholder interests.	Renovation requires multi-party negotiation; reaching consensus is challenging.
Investment cost	Per square meter renovation cost is higher than that of new projects; funding relies heavily on public and social investment.	Average renovation cost: 8000 CNY/m2; weak real estate market sentiment reduces private investment willingness.
Geological conditions	Located over a fault zone near a river; complex geological structure; partially situated above thick coal seam goaf.	Groundwater level is 2–3 m deep, prone to water inrush, ground collapse, and other hazards, resulting in high construction difficulty.

.

The Zhanqian Underground Shopping Mall is located in Xinfu district, Fushun city, Liaoning Province, adjacent to Fushun South Railway Station and a major public transportation hub. With a prime location and high pedestrian traffic, the mall was originally constructed in the 1980s as a civil air defense facility and later repurposed for commercial use. For many years, it played an important role in supporting local commerce and public livelihood. However, in recent years, the facility has suffered from serious deterioration, including aging structures, outdated functions, and increasing safety risks. These problems have significantly limited its operational performance, and renovation has become urgent.

3.2. SWOT Analysis Results

Based on the specific conditions of Fushun’s underground commercial spaces, the SWOT analysis identified the following key factors:

• Strengths
  • Prime location with high foot traffic. The spaces are located near Fushun south railway station and major bus hubs, offering strong commercial potential.
  • High reuse value of existing infrastructure. Despite structural aging, features such as ventilation shafts and fire passages can be upgraded, reducing reconstruction costs.
  • Policy support. National strategies and local initiatives promote urban renewal in resource-based cities, with possibilities for financial subsidies.
  • Cultural and historical significance. Originally built in the 1980s as civil air defense facilities, these sites carry strong historical value and public recognition, which can be enhanced through cultural integration during renovation.

2.

Weaknesses

• Severe structural deterioration and safety risks. Common issues include wall cracks, water leakage, and poor ventilation, increasing construction complexity and costs.
• Outdated functional layouts. Traditional stall-based designs lack accessibility and intelligent systems, failing to meet modern experiential shopping demands.
• Funding and management limitations. Complicated ownership structures and limited fiscal capacity hinder effective financing.
• Lack of skilled personnel. Local contractors often lack experience in underground renovations, increasing risks of delays and quality issues.

3.

Opportunities

• Supportive national policies. Policies such as the guidelines on urban utility tunnel construction promote integrated underground development.
• Trends in consumer upgrading and format innovation. Experience-driven consumption allows for introducing themed streets, smart retail, and cultural IPs.
• Green and low-carbon technologies. The integration of photovoltaic systems, geothermal heating, and water recycling aligns with China’s dual-carbon goals.
• Regional economic integration. Collaboration between Fushun and Shenyang cities enhances cross-regional consumer flow.

4.

Threats

• Macroeconomic uncertainty. The real estate downturn weakens private investment confidence.
• Natural and geological risks. Located near a fault zone with high groundwater levels, the area faces potential flooding and risks of collapse.
• Uncertainty in policy implementation. Renovation involves multiple regulatory bodies, and changes in policies or approval delays may impact progress.
• Market competition. E-commerce and surface-level malls divert customer flow; without differentiation, post-renovation commercial risks remain.

The summarized swot matrix is presented in

Table 3. SWOT analysis results.

Strengths (S)	Weaknesses (W)
(a) Superior location with high foot traffic and convenient transportation. (b) Existing infrastructure with potential for renovation and reuse. (c) Strong policy support and project-specific funding. (d) Historical and cultural value promotes cultural-tourism integration.	(a) Severe structural aging, posing safety hazards. (b) Outdated functional layout and lack of modern facilities. (c) Difficulties in financing and limited investment channels. (d) Shortage of skilled professionals and specialized teams.
Opportunities (O)	Threats (T)
(a) Favorable policies for integrated development of urban underground space. (b) Consumer upgrading drives format innovation. (c) Application of green and low-carbon technologies aligns with “dual carbon” goals. (d) Regional coordination attracts cross-city consumer groups.	(a) Macroeconomic fluctuations reduce the willingness of private investors. (b) Geological risks due to site conditions. (c) Policy uncertainty in multi-department approval and enforcement. (d) Competition from e-commerce and surface-level malls for customer traffic.

.

Based on Table 3, the renovation of aging underground commercial spaces in Fushun city demonstrates notable advantages and aligns well with the broader context of China’s current economic development. It serves as a representative case of urban renewal in resource-exhausted cities. However, geological conditions and socio-economic factors may pose significant challenges to the renovation process. Therefore, it is essential to conduct a comprehensive risk factor analysis across all phases of the construction life cycle to ensure the safe and effective implementation of the project.

3.3. Risk Source Identification Results

• Data Source and Processing

Based on the SMART design goals method—Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-Based—the research follows the regulatory framework of Regulations on the Development and Utilization of Urban Underground Space [21] and over 620 existing policies and standards in China. It also draws on key policy reports such as the China Urban Underground Space Development Blue Book in 2024 [22]. In line with the risk factors outlined in Section 3.2, a brainstorming session was organized with an expert panel, combining statistical reports on major accidents since the project’s completion.

The Likert five-point scale was used for the survey, conducted via an online questionnaire. A total of 147 questionnaires were distributed, and 127 valid responses were collected. Of the valid responses, 97 were from on-site construction workers, 14 from safety management personnel, and 16 from academic researchers in the field of construction at universities. The Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficient of the questionnaire was 0.85, and Bartlett’s test of sphericity showed a p-value of less than 0.01, confirming the reliability and validity of the survey.

2.

WBS results

Based on the work tasks involved in the renovation of underground spaces in Fushun city, the construction project was divided into six main procedures:

W₁: Preliminary Preparation.

W₂: Structural Reinforcement and Demolition.

W₃: Mechanical and Electrical System Renovation.

W₄: Waterproofing and Damp-proofing.

W₅: Interior Decoration and Finishing.

W₆: Monitoring and Acceptance.

Each work procedure was further subdivided, with W_i (i = 1, 2, …, 17) representing the specific risk factors for each task. The WBS breakdown is presented in

Table 4. WBS breakdown table.

Code	Risk Category	Sub-Code	Risk Factor
W1	Preliminary preparation	W1.1	On-site survey and inspection
		W1.2	Evaluation of structural stability
		W1.3	Detection of concealed works
W2	Structural reinforcement and demolition	W2.1	Partial demolition
		W2.2	Installation of temporary support
		W2.3	Reinforcement construction
W3	Mechanical, electrical, and plumbing system renovation	W3.1	Electrical system upgrading
		W3.2	Ventilation system renovation
		W3.3	Fire protection system upgrading
W4	Waterproofing and damp-proofing	W4.1	Waterproof layer construction
		W4.2	Drainage system installation
W5	Interior renovation and decoration	W5.1	Wall and ground refurbishment
		W5.2	Ceiling and lighting installation
W6	Monitoring and acceptance	W6.1	Construction process monitoring
		W6.2	Final project acceptance

.

3.

RBS results

During the renovation process of aging underground commercial spaces, six primary categories of risk factors were identified, namely the following:

R₁: Environmental and geological risks.

R₂: Design and survey risks.

R₃: Construction technology risks.

R₄: Material and equipment risks.

R₅: Management risks.

R₆: Monitoring risks.

Further analysis led to the identification of 17 secondary risk factors, denoted as R_j (j = 1, 2, …, 17). These are presented in the RBS breakdown shown in

Table 5. RBS breakdown table.

Code	Risk Category	Sub-Code	Risk Factor
R1	Environmental and geological risks	R1.1	Changes in groundwater level
		R1.2	Insufficient soil stability
		R1.3	Settlement of surrounding buildings
R2	Design and survey risks	R2.1	Survey data error
		R2.2	Structural design defects
		R2.3	Concealed pipeline omission
R3	Construction technology risk	R3.1	Structural collapse during demolition
		R3.2	Temporary support failure
		R3.3	The waterproof layer does not meet the standard
R4	Material and equipment risks	R4.1	Insufficient reinforcement materials
		R4.2	Mechanical and electrical equipment malfunction
		R4.3	Aging of waterproof materials
R5	Manage risk	R5.1	Improper personnel operation
		R5.2	Lack of safety training
		R5.3	Insufficient emergency plan
R6	Monitoring risks	R6.1	Monitoring data lag
		R6.2	Inaccurate emergency response

.

To analyze the relationship between risks and operational activities in the renovation of old underground commercial spaces, an expert scoring method is used to assess the correspondence between WBS and RBS. A panel of 10 construction technical and safety management experts evaluates each WBS task and RBS risk factor. If a risk is likely to have a substantial impact on a task, it is marked as “important”. A WBS-RBS pair is considered to be associated when it receives the approval of at least five experts (marked as 1 in the matrix); otherwise, it is marked as 0. For simplicity, both tasks and risks are represented by codes (e.g., W_1.1 for site survey and R_1.1 for groundwater level changes). The specific correlation matrix is shown in

Table 6. WBS-RBS correlation matrix.

RW	1.1	1.2	1.3	2.1	2.2	2.3	3.1	3.2	3.3	4.1	4.2	4.3	5.1	5.2	5.3	6.1	6.2
1.1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1.2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1.3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
2.2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
2.3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
3.1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
3.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
3.3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
4.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
4.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
5.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
5.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
6.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
6.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0

.

The risk factors must ultimately be screened based on both horizontal correlation and vertical weight. For the horizontal dimension, the risk factor must be associated with more than one construction stage, indicating its cross-process nature. For the vertical dimension, the overall weight of the risk category for each factor must ensure that the final risk identification does not focus solely on localized risks in a specific task nor is constrained by the weight distribution. The final risk factor identification results are shown in

Table 7. Risk factors.

Stage	Risk Code	Risk Description
Survey and testing	W1.1-R1.1	Difficulty in on-site investigation due to changes in groundwater level
	W1.1-R1.2	Insufficient soil stability leads to detection errors
	W1.1-R1.3	Survey results on the impact of settlement of surrounding buildings
	W1.1-R2.1	Survey data error
	W1.1-R2.3	Construction accidents caused by hidden pipeline omissions
Assessment structure	W1.2-R1.1	Structural assessment of the impact of groundwater level fluctuations
	W1.2-R1.2	The weak layer of soil has not been discovered
	W1.2-R2.2	Structural design defects
Concealed exploration	W1.3-R2.3	Concealed engineering pipeline omission
Partial demolition	W2.1-R1.1	Rising groundwater level leads to collapse of demolition area
	W2.1-R3.1	Improper dismantling sequence leads to structural collapse
	W2.1-R3.2	Improper installation of temporary support leads to failure
	W2.1-R5.1	Improper operation by construction personnel
Temporary support	W2.2-R4.1	Insufficient strength of temporary support materials
	W2.2-R5.1	The construction personnel did not install the support according to the specifications
Reinforcement construction	W2.3-R4.1	Insufficient bonding performance of reinforcement materials
Electrical system	W3.1-R2.3	Leakage of concealed pipelines in the electrical system
	W3.1-R4.2	Electrical equipment installation failure
Ventilation system	W3.2-R4.2	Improper installation of ventilation equipment leads to system failure
Fire protection system	W3.3-R4.2	Fire equipment linkage test failed
Waterproof layer	W4.1-R3.3	The construction process of the waterproof layer does not meet the standard
	W4.1-R4.3	Aging of waterproof materials leads to insufficient durability
Drainage system	W4.2-R3.3	Insufficient slope of drainage system leads to water accumulation
Wall and floor	W5.1-R5.1	Improper stacking of decoration materials obstructs escape routes
Ceiling lighting	W5.2-R5.1	Falling due to not wearing a safety belt during high-altitude operations
Monitoring	W6.1-R6.1	Monitoring system data lag
	W6.1-R6.2	The emergency response mechanism is not perfect
Completion acceptance	W6.2-R6.1	Omission of completion acceptance testing items

.

4.

Weight and ranking of risk indicators

By eliminating indicators with relatively low risk weights, twenty effective influencing factors were ultimately identified. Based on these twenty specific factors, categorized into five groups, a five-level construction risk evaluation index system was established, as shown in

Table 8. Factors influencing risk indicators.

First Level Indicator	Weights	Secondary Indicators	Weights	Risk Description
Human factors	0.2017	Lack of safety awareness	0.0668	Improper operation by construction personnel
		Inadequate code of conduct	0.5383	Construction personnel did not install supports as required
		Lack of safety protection equipment	0.1759	Falling due to not wearing a safety belt during high-altitude operations
		On-site management is not standardized	0.219	Improper stacking of materials obstructs escape routes
Factors related to objects	0.1955	Material quality defects	0.2863	Insufficient strength of temporary support materials
		Equipment performance does not meet the standard	0.182	Electrical equipment installation failure
		Material aging issue	0.4348	Aging of waterproof materials leads to insufficient durability
		System integration defects	0.0969	Fire equipment linkage test failed
Scheme and technical factors	0.1813	Defects in the survey plan	0.4348	Insufficient soil stability leads to detection errors
		Design parameter error	0.0969	Structural design defects
		Unreasonable construction plan	0.2863	Improper dismantling sequence leads to structural collapse
		Technical execution deviation	0.182	The construction process of the waterproof layer does not meet the standard
Management factors	0.3608	Lack of process monitoring	0.4155	Monitoring system data lag
		Insufficient management of contingency plans	0.1849	The emergency response mechanism is not perfect
		The implementation of acceptance standards is not strict	0.107	Omission of completion acceptance testing items
		Lack of quality management	0.2926	Improper installation of temporary support leads to failure
Environmental factor	0.0608	Natural environmental impact	0.2844	Difficulties in exploration due to changes in groundwater level
		Surrounding environmental interference	0.4729	Survey results on the impact of settlement of surrounding buildings
		Defects in homework environment design	0.1699	Insufficient slope of drainage system leads to water accumulation
		Insufficient environmental exploration	0.0729	Concealed engineering pipeline omission

.

The AHP method was applied to construct and calculate the construction risk indicator system for the renovation of old underground commercial spaces in Fushun city. The weights of the secondary indicators within the primary indicators, as well as the weights of the primary indicators in the risk evaluation system, were calculated across five aspects: human factors, material factors, design and technical factors, management factors, and environmental factors. Among human factors, the highest weight of 0.5383 is attributed to inadequate behavior norms, far surpassing the weight of 0.0668 for poor safety awareness. Among material factors, the highest weight of 0.4348 is assigned to material aging, significantly higher than the weight of 0.2863 for poor material quality. Regarding design and technical factors, the highest weight of 0.4348 is associated with flaws in the survey plan, much higher than the weight of 0.0969 for incorrect design parameters. For management factors, the highest weight of 0.4155 is linked to a lack of process monitoring, far exceeding the weight of 0.1849 for the absence of contingency plan management. Among environmental factors, the highest weight of 0.4729 is given to interference from surrounding environments, much greater than the weight of 0.2844 for the impact of natural environmental conditions. Among the primary indicators, management factors have the highest weight at 0.3608, while environmental factors have the lowest weight at 0.0608. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the critical risk points for the renovation construction are behavior norms, material aging, survey plans, process monitoring, and surrounding environment. This provides accurate and scientific quantitative data for comprehensive risk evaluation, helping decision-makers identify high-risk points in the renovation project and proactively prevent and mitigate risks, thereby ensuring the smooth and safe implementation of the underground commercial space renovation in Fushun city.

4. Discussion

4.1. Methodological Comparison

The comparative analysis between the research methods of the manuscript and previous research methods is shown in

Table 9. Methodological comparative analysis table.

Method	Advantages of This Study	Limitations in the Literature
SWOT	Dual application: risk and value assessment	Typically limited to risk identification only [18,23,24]
WBS-RBS	Full lifecycle risk tracing	Partial process analysis [19,25]
Delphi–AHP	Consistency-optimized weighting	Subjective expert bias [26]

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According to Table 9, the SWOT method is commonly employed to analyze systemic influencing factors [18,23,24]. In our study, we not only utilize SWOT to examine risk factors in the renovation of resource-depleted cities’ underground commercial spaces, but also apply it to assess the value proposition of specific renovation projects, thereby demonstrating the comprehensiveness of our methodological approach. For constructing the risk indicator system, the WBS-RBS method has demonstrated good efficacy [19,25]. Through analyzing critical construction processes across the entire lifecycle of renovation projects, we have established a comprehensive risk indicator system specifically tailored for urban renewal in resource-exhausted cities. Building upon our previous work [26], where we successfully applied an improved AHP method [27] to various case studies including metro system safety evaluations [28], we now integrate the Delphi method with AHP analysis to calculate weights and determine the relative importance of influencing factors in renovation projects.

4.2. Prospects and Limitations

The beneficiaries and significance of this study are shown in

Table 10. Beneficiary and significance analysis table.

Stakeholder	Practical Solutions
Government Agencies	Subsidy prioritization model
Construction Contractors	Risk-based budget allocation tool
Urban Planners	Evaluation index system for underground space renewal

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According to Table 10, this study can also provide decision-making support for governments of developing countries, specifically covering the following: value judgments on urban improvement and upgrading projects by the government; support for financial subsidy policies; and assessments of the safety of renovation and construction projects. For enterprises and construction contractors, it can facilitate reasonable allocation of risk budgets, focus on whole-life cycle construction and renovation processes, increase safety investments in high-risk construction links, and enhance education and training for managers of construction projects with elevated risks. For scientific research institutions, universities, or other formally planned organizations in the construction field, this study can also offer references for the construction of risk indicators and the development of risk assessment processes.

While the proposed methodology has achieved results in analyzing risk factors for urban renewal projects in resource-based cities using Fushun city as a case study, it should be noted that our approach still cannot completely eliminate the influence of subjective factors. Therefore, future research will incorporate more objective parameters to enable comprehensive risk assessment. The proposed research method can also be extended to risk factor analysis for engineering renovations in post-mining cities and industrially abandoned cities.

5. Conclusions

Fushun City, a representative Chinese resource-based city among post-mining cities, has recently implemented a series of urban renewal policies. To analyze the risks associated with urban renovation and upgrading, the underground commercial space renovation project in Fushun city was selected as a case study. This study develops a comprehensive risk assessment methodology for renovation projects in China’s resource-depleted cities. By assessing the renovation of old urban underground spaces, the economic benefits and value of the renovation are predicted, identifying key stages and issues from the analysis of adverse factors. Starting from the entire lifecycle of the renovation construction, the risks at each stage of the construction process are dissected, and potential risk factors during the renovation are identified. Expert opinions are summarized and analyzed to calculate the risk rankings for each level of indicators.

In the Fushun city renovation case study, the established framework—consisting of five first-level indicators and twenty s-level indicators—enables the analysis of renovation projects. In the renovation of underground commercial spaces in resource-based cities, the most critical factors are management and human factors, with respective weights of 0.3608 and 0.2017. Although the proposed method systematically analyzes the risks of renovation construction, considering the characteristics of building construction, it is highly applicable. It provides valuable insights for ensuring the smooth and safe implementation of renovation projects in resource-depleted cities’ old underground commercial spaces.