Analysis of Risk Factors in the Renovation of Old Underground Commercial Spaces in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Fushun City
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Value Judgment and Risk Factors Screening
2.2. Risk Source Identification
2.3. Risk Indicator Weight
3. Case Study
3.1. Case Background
3.2. SWOT Analysis Results
- Strengths
- Prime location with high foot traffic. The spaces are located near Fushun south railway station and major bus hubs, offering strong commercial potential.
- High reuse value of existing infrastructure. Despite structural aging, features such as ventilation shafts and fire passages can be upgraded, reducing reconstruction costs.
- Policy support. National strategies and local initiatives promote urban renewal in resource-based cities, with possibilities for financial subsidies.
- Cultural and historical significance. Originally built in the 1980s as civil air defense facilities, these sites carry strong historical value and public recognition, which can be enhanced through cultural integration during renovation.
- 2.
- Weaknesses
- Severe structural deterioration and safety risks. Common issues include wall cracks, water leakage, and poor ventilation, increasing construction complexity and costs.
- Outdated functional layouts. Traditional stall-based designs lack accessibility and intelligent systems, failing to meet modern experiential shopping demands.
- Funding and management limitations. Complicated ownership structures and limited fiscal capacity hinder effective financing.
- Lack of skilled personnel. Local contractors often lack experience in underground renovations, increasing risks of delays and quality issues.
- 3.
- Opportunities
- Supportive national policies. Policies such as the guidelines on urban utility tunnel construction promote integrated underground development.
- Trends in consumer upgrading and format innovation. Experience-driven consumption allows for introducing themed streets, smart retail, and cultural IPs.
- Green and low-carbon technologies. The integration of photovoltaic systems, geothermal heating, and water recycling aligns with China’s dual-carbon goals.
- Regional economic integration. Collaboration between Fushun and Shenyang cities enhances cross-regional consumer flow.
- 4.
- Threats
- Macroeconomic uncertainty. The real estate downturn weakens private investment confidence.
- Natural and geological risks. Located near a fault zone with high groundwater levels, the area faces potential flooding and risks of collapse.
- Uncertainty in policy implementation. Renovation involves multiple regulatory bodies, and changes in policies or approval delays may impact progress.
- Market competition. E-commerce and surface-level malls divert customer flow; without differentiation, post-renovation commercial risks remain.
3.3. Risk Source Identification Results
- Data Source and Processing
- 2.
- WBS results
- 3.
- RBS results
- 4.
- Weight and ranking of risk indicators
4. Discussion
4.1. Methodological Comparison
4.2. Prospects and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
SWOT | SWOT analytical method |
WBS-RBS | Work Breakdown Structure–Risk Breakdown Structure method |
Delphi–AHP | Delphi–Analytic Hierarchy Process method |
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Advantages Factors | Disadvantages Factors | |
---|---|---|
Internal factors | Strengths | Weaknesses |
External factors | Opportunities | Threats |
Category | Current Status/Issues | Data/Explanation |
---|---|---|
Building structure | Reinforced concrete frame structure with floor height of 4–5 m; large renovation space; outdated layout; lacks barrier-free facilities and smart navigation functions. | Wall cracks and water leakage observed; carbonation depth up to 30 mm; poor ventilation affects operations and traffic, posing potential safety risks. |
Property rights | Complicated property ownership; difficult coordination of stakeholder interests. | Renovation requires multi-party negotiation; reaching consensus is challenging. |
Investment cost | Per square meter renovation cost is higher than that of new projects; funding relies heavily on public and social investment. | Average renovation cost: 8000 CNY/m2; weak real estate market sentiment reduces private investment willingness. |
Geological conditions | Located over a fault zone near a river; complex geological structure; partially situated above thick coal seam goaf. | Groundwater level is 2–3 m deep, prone to water inrush, ground collapse, and other hazards, resulting in high construction difficulty. |
Strengths (S) | Weaknesses (W) |
---|---|
|
|
Opportunities (O) | Threats (T) |
|
|
Code | Risk Category | Sub-Code | Risk Factor |
---|---|---|---|
W1 | Preliminary preparation | W1.1 | On-site survey and inspection |
W1.2 | Evaluation of structural stability | ||
W1.3 | Detection of concealed works | ||
W2 | Structural reinforcement and demolition | W2.1 | Partial demolition |
W2.2 | Installation of temporary support | ||
W2.3 | Reinforcement construction | ||
W3 | Mechanical, electrical, and plumbing system renovation | W3.1 | Electrical system upgrading |
W3.2 | Ventilation system renovation | ||
W3.3 | Fire protection system upgrading | ||
W4 | Waterproofing and damp-proofing | W4.1 | Waterproof layer construction |
W4.2 | Drainage system installation | ||
W5 | Interior renovation and decoration | W5.1 | Wall and ground refurbishment |
W5.2 | Ceiling and lighting installation | ||
W6 | Monitoring and acceptance | W6.1 | Construction process monitoring |
W6.2 | Final project acceptance |
Code | Risk Category | Sub-Code | Risk Factor |
---|---|---|---|
R1 | Environmental and geological risks | R1.1 | Changes in groundwater level |
R1.2 | Insufficient soil stability | ||
R1.3 | Settlement of surrounding buildings | ||
R2 | Design and survey risks | R2.1 | Survey data error |
R2.2 | Structural design defects | ||
R2.3 | Concealed pipeline omission | ||
R3 | Construction technology risk | R3.1 | Structural collapse during demolition |
R3.2 | Temporary support failure | ||
R3.3 | The waterproof layer does not meet the standard | ||
R4 | Material and equipment risks | R4.1 | Insufficient reinforcement materials |
R4.2 | Mechanical and electrical equipment malfunction | ||
R4.3 | Aging of waterproof materials | ||
R5 | Manage risk | R5.1 | Improper personnel operation |
R5.2 | Lack of safety training | ||
R5.3 | Insufficient emergency plan | ||
R6 | Monitoring risks | R6.1 | Monitoring data lag |
R6.2 | Inaccurate emergency response |
RW | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 6.2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Stage | Risk Code | Risk Description |
---|---|---|
Survey and testing | W1.1-R1.1 | Difficulty in on-site investigation due to changes in groundwater level |
W1.1-R1.2 | Insufficient soil stability leads to detection errors | |
W1.1-R1.3 | Survey results on the impact of settlement of surrounding buildings | |
W1.1-R2.1 | Survey data error | |
W1.1-R2.3 | Construction accidents caused by hidden pipeline omissions | |
Assessment structure | W1.2-R1.1 | Structural assessment of the impact of groundwater level fluctuations |
W1.2-R1.2 | The weak layer of soil has not been discovered | |
W1.2-R2.2 | Structural design defects | |
Concealed exploration | W1.3-R2.3 | Concealed engineering pipeline omission |
Partial demolition | W2.1-R1.1 | Rising groundwater level leads to collapse of demolition area |
W2.1-R3.1 | Improper dismantling sequence leads to structural collapse | |
W2.1-R3.2 | Improper installation of temporary support leads to failure | |
W2.1-R5.1 | Improper operation by construction personnel | |
Temporary support | W2.2-R4.1 | Insufficient strength of temporary support materials |
W2.2-R5.1 | The construction personnel did not install the support according to the specifications | |
Reinforcement construction | W2.3-R4.1 | Insufficient bonding performance of reinforcement materials |
Electrical system | W3.1-R2.3 | Leakage of concealed pipelines in the electrical system |
W3.1-R4.2 | Electrical equipment installation failure | |
Ventilation system | W3.2-R4.2 | Improper installation of ventilation equipment leads to system failure |
Fire protection system | W3.3-R4.2 | Fire equipment linkage test failed |
Waterproof layer | W4.1-R3.3 | The construction process of the waterproof layer does not meet the standard |
W4.1-R4.3 | Aging of waterproof materials leads to insufficient durability | |
Drainage system | W4.2-R3.3 | Insufficient slope of drainage system leads to water accumulation |
Wall and floor | W5.1-R5.1 | Improper stacking of decoration materials obstructs escape routes |
Ceiling lighting | W5.2-R5.1 | Falling due to not wearing a safety belt during high-altitude operations |
Monitoring | W6.1-R6.1 | Monitoring system data lag |
W6.1-R6.2 | The emergency response mechanism is not perfect | |
Completion acceptance | W6.2-R6.1 | Omission of completion acceptance testing items |
First Level Indicator | Weights | Secondary Indicators | Weights | Risk Description |
---|---|---|---|---|
Human factors | 0.2017 | Lack of safety awareness | 0.0668 | Improper operation by construction personnel |
Inadequate code of conduct | 0.5383 | Construction personnel did not install supports as required | ||
Lack of safety protection equipment | 0.1759 | Falling due to not wearing a safety belt during high-altitude operations | ||
On-site management is not standardized | 0.219 | Improper stacking of materials obstructs escape routes | ||
Factors related to objects | 0.1955 | Material quality defects | 0.2863 | Insufficient strength of temporary support materials |
Equipment performance does not meet the standard | 0.182 | Electrical equipment installation failure | ||
Material aging issue | 0.4348 | Aging of waterproof materials leads to insufficient durability | ||
System integration defects | 0.0969 | Fire equipment linkage test failed | ||
Scheme and technical factors | 0.1813 | Defects in the survey plan | 0.4348 | Insufficient soil stability leads to detection errors |
Design parameter error | 0.0969 | Structural design defects | ||
Unreasonable construction plan | 0.2863 | Improper dismantling sequence leads to structural collapse | ||
Technical execution deviation | 0.182 | The construction process of the waterproof layer does not meet the standard | ||
Management factors | 0.3608 | Lack of process monitoring | 0.4155 | Monitoring system data lag |
Insufficient management of contingency plans | 0.1849 | The emergency response mechanism is not perfect | ||
The implementation of acceptance standards is not strict | 0.107 | Omission of completion acceptance testing items | ||
Lack of quality management | 0.2926 | Improper installation of temporary support leads to failure | ||
Environmental factor | 0.0608 | Natural environmental impact | 0.2844 | Difficulties in exploration due to changes in groundwater level |
Surrounding environmental interference | 0.4729 | Survey results on the impact of settlement of surrounding buildings | ||
Defects in homework environment design | 0.1699 | Insufficient slope of drainage system leads to water accumulation | ||
Insufficient environmental exploration | 0.0729 | Concealed engineering pipeline omission |
Method | Advantages of This Study | Limitations in the Literature |
---|---|---|
SWOT | Dual application: risk and value assessment | Typically limited to risk identification only [18,23,24] |
WBS-RBS | Full lifecycle risk tracing | Partial process analysis [19,25] |
Delphi–AHP | Consistency-optimized weighting | Subjective expert bias [26] |
Stakeholder | Practical Solutions |
---|---|
Government Agencies | Subsidy prioritization model |
Construction Contractors | Risk-based budget allocation tool |
Urban Planners | Evaluation index system for underground space renewal |
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Wang, K.; Li, M.; Dong, S. Analysis of Risk Factors in the Renovation of Old Underground Commercial Spaces in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Fushun City. Sustainability 2025, 17, 7041. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17157041
Wang K, Li M, Dong S. Analysis of Risk Factors in the Renovation of Old Underground Commercial Spaces in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Fushun City. Sustainability. 2025; 17(15):7041. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17157041
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Kang, Meixuan Li, and Sihui Dong. 2025. "Analysis of Risk Factors in the Renovation of Old Underground Commercial Spaces in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Fushun City" Sustainability 17, no. 15: 7041. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17157041
APA StyleWang, K., Li, M., & Dong, S. (2025). Analysis of Risk Factors in the Renovation of Old Underground Commercial Spaces in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Fushun City. Sustainability, 17(15), 7041. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17157041