Urban Flood Risk Sustainable Management: Risk Analysis of Dam Break Induced Flash Floods in Mountainous Valley Cities
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Research Process and Methods
2.1. Research Process
2.2. Scope of the Study
2.3. Data and Methods
2.3.1. Data
2.3.2. Dam Failure Model
- 1.
- Calculation of Maximum Breach Flow
- 2.
- Calculation of Maximum Flow Estimates for Failure
- 3.
- Calculation of total air release time
- 4.
- Dam Breach Flood Calculation
2.3.3. Hydrological Model
2.3.4. Hydrodynamic Model
2.3.5. Model Coupling
3. Analysis of Results
3.1. Validation
3.2. Analysis of Dam-Break Floods
3.3. Analysis of Inundation Results
4. Conclusions
- 1.
- In upstream areas of mountainous cities, if a small reservoir experiences a dam-break, the resulting flood peak is characterized by a high magnitude and rapid rise and fall, typically completing its course within one hour. In contrast, flash floods induced by downstream rainfall generally evolve over a period of 2–3 h. For reservoirs with relatively large downstream catchment areas, rainfall-induced flows can be substantial. When heavy rainfall occurs in the hilly upstream region of such reservoirs, the dam-break flood and the flash flood caused by downstream rainfall may result in a two-stage impact on the city. Dam failure of this type of reservoir poses a more severe threat and thus warrants particular attention for risk prevention.
- 2.
- The risk of reservoir dam-break is closely related to the water level difference between the upstream and downstream sides of the dam. A greater water level difference results in higher hydraulic pressure on the dam structure, significantly increasing the likelihood of failure. Therefore, prior to the onset of extreme rainfall events, it is essential to implement pre-release operations in accordance with reservoir regulation plans, aiming to lower the upstream water level in advance and thereby minimize the risk of dam-break and its potential impacts on downstream areas.
- 3.
- With the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, the inundation area in urban regions expands accordingly; however, the extent of this increase remains limited. This is primarily due to the geomorphological characteristics of mountainous cities, where flash flood channels and river valleys are deeply incised, typically exhibiting “U”- or “V”-shaped cross-sections. Under rainfall events of varying return periods, the extent of overbank flooding along these channels changes minimally. In mountainous urban areas, the primary hazard arises from the high-velocity flow. Flash floods are characterized by large discharges and high flow velocities, with peak velocities reaching up to 15 m/s, posing significant threats to downstream urban areas.
- 4.
- Mountainous valley cities exhibit distinct topographical characteristics that should be strategically leveraged to optimize flood risk management. Effective regulation of upstream reservoirs can significantly reduce the risk of dam failure. Additionally, implementing flood diversion measures at the mountain front can redirect flash floods to bypass the main urban area and discharge downstream. Enhancing overland flow management on slopes can prevent the convergence of flood peaks, thereby improving the city’s capacity for energy dissipation, flow attenuation, and peak reduction. A combination of structural and non-structural measures should be adopted to comprehensively strengthen Guangyuan’s flood resilience. To enhance the practical value of this research, it is recommended to further explore how these measures can be implemented in Guangyuan City, incorporating considerations of cost and feasibility constraints.
- 5.
- This study takes Guangyuan City as an example. However, different mountainous cities have distinct characteristics. Therefore, in modeling, it is necessary to consider the geographical and climatic features of each city and select appropriate models accordingly. For instance, in coastal mountainous cities, the impact of typhoon-induced rainfall must be considered, as it is typically intense and long-lasting. This requires adjusting parameters such as rainfall duration and intensity. In contrast, inland mountainous cities often have steeper slopes and longer main channels in mountain gullies, necessitating adjustments to surface condition parameters in the flood models. Thus, model modifications should be made based on the topography, hydrology, climate, and engineering features of the target city. By developing a similarity assessment system or incorporating regional parameter adjustment modules, the model’s applicability and accuracy can be enhanced. Coastal, plateau, and arid mountainous cities each have specific risk characteristics and mountain flood formation mechanisms.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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No. | River Cross-Section ID | 50-Year Return Period Design Flood Levels (m) | Model Simulation Results (m) | Error (m) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Section-1 | 478.81 | 478.51 | 0.3 |
2 | Section-2 | 479.04 | 478.87 | 0.17 |
3 | Section-3 | 480.14 | 479.87 | 0.27 |
No. | Reservoir Name | Total Storage Capacity (Million m3) | Upstream Catchment Area (km2) | Downstream Catchment Area (km2) | Area Ration (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sitigou Reservoir | 26.4 | 0.28 | 18.61 | 1.5 |
2 | Pujiashan Reservoir | 10.12 | 0.177 | 61.87 | 0.29 |
3 | Wuyi Reservoir | 10.66 | 0.8 | 22.04 | 3.63 |
4 | Meijiawan Reservoir | 10.83 | 0.15 | 12.32 | 1.22 |
5 | Qingling Reservoir | 37.02 | 1.7 | 28.63 | 5.94 |
6 | Wusi Reservoir | 15.47 | 0.38 | 12.66 | 3 |
Average Value | 2.60 |
Rainfall Return Period | Maximum Depth of Inundation (m) | <0.5 | 0.5–1 | 1–2 | 2–3 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
10a | Area Inundated by Dam Failure (km2) | 4.22 | 1.94 | 2.01 | 1.07 |
Area of Inundation without Dam Failure (km2) | 3.84 | 1.81 | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
20a | Area Inundated by Dam Failure (km2) | 4.28 | 2.13 | 2.31 | 1.29 |
Area of Inundation without Dam Failure (km2) | 3.88 | 1.99 | 2.15 | 0.53 | |
30a | Area Inundated by Dam Failure (km2) | 4.3 | 2.17 | 2.41 | 1.31 |
Area of Inundation without Dam Failure (km2) | 3.88 | 2.03 | 2.27 | 0.59 | |
50a | Area Inundated by Dam Failure (km2) | 4.31 | 2.21 | 2.54 | 1.38 |
Area of Inundation without Dam Failure (km2) | 3.88 | 2.08 | 2.4 | 0.67 | |
100a | Area Inundated by Dam Failure (km2) | 4.31 | 2.24 | 2.66 | 1.43 |
Area of Inundation without Dam Failure (km2) | 3.85 | 2.14 | 2.51 | 0.76 |
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Liu, Y.; Liu, Y.; Yu, Q.; Liu, S. Urban Flood Risk Sustainable Management: Risk Analysis of Dam Break Induced Flash Floods in Mountainous Valley Cities. Sustainability 2025, 17, 5863. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17135863
Liu Y, Liu Y, Yu Q, Liu S. Urban Flood Risk Sustainable Management: Risk Analysis of Dam Break Induced Flash Floods in Mountainous Valley Cities. Sustainability. 2025; 17(13):5863. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17135863
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Yuanyuan, Yesen Liu, Qian Yu, and Shu Liu. 2025. "Urban Flood Risk Sustainable Management: Risk Analysis of Dam Break Induced Flash Floods in Mountainous Valley Cities" Sustainability 17, no. 13: 5863. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17135863
APA StyleLiu, Y., Liu, Y., Yu, Q., & Liu, S. (2025). Urban Flood Risk Sustainable Management: Risk Analysis of Dam Break Induced Flash Floods in Mountainous Valley Cities. Sustainability, 17(13), 5863. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17135863