Multi-Dimensional Heterogeneous Impacts of Air Pollution on Urban Sustainable Development of China

Since China’s reform and opening up over 40 years ago, rapid urbanization has led to significant progress, but also severe air pollution. Understanding how air pollution affects the sustainable development of different city types is crucial for formulating targeted mitigation strategies. Thus, we propose the hypothesis that air pollution affects urban sustainable development through the synergistic interactions of population, industry, space, and society. To test this hypothesis, we construct a simultaneous equation system incorporating pollution, population, industry, spatial, and social factors, utilizing the Three-Stage Least Squares method for estimation. The robustness of our results is rigorously verified. Additionally, to explore deeper mechanisms, we perform a multi-dimensional heterogeneity analysis. Our results indicate that: (1) Air pollution negatively impacts urban sustainable development by reducing urban population size, with a coefficient of −0.950; (2) Air pollution hinders urban sustainable development by reducing manufacturing agglomeration, with a coefficient of −0.962; (3) Air pollution induces disordered urban spatial expansion, undermining sustainable development, with a coefficient of 2.596; and (4) Air pollution leads to stricter environmental rules, with a coefficient of 17.428, and these rules boost urban sustainability in the long term. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the intensity, direction, and statistical significance of air pollution’s effects vary across cities with different regional characteristics, pollution levels, population scales, industrial structures, spatial patterns, and regulatory intensities.