How Does Carbon Emissions Trading Impact Energy Transition? A Perspective Based on Local Government Behavior

Assessing the environmental and economic impacts of the carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) is both timely and essential. This study investigates the effects of the ETS on energy transition by analyzing panel data from 30 provinces and municipalities across mainland China. The findings highlight three key points. First, the ETS significantly promotes energy transition. Robustness tests confirm the validity of this conclusion. Compared with non-pilot provinces, pilot provinces achieve a 4.83% increase in energy transition levels. Second, the energy transition effect of the ETS is mainly achieved by changing the incentive and constraint behavior of local governments. Third, the ETS exerts a more pronounced impact on energy transition in regions with higher levels of marketization and stronger innovation capabilities. Furthermore, the effects of the ETS vary across different quantiles of energy transition levels. This study provides a novel perspective on achieving the synergistic development of economic growth and environmental sustainability.