Climate on the Edge: Impacts and Adaptation in Ethiopia’s Agriculture

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to Ethiopian agriculture, impacting both cereal and livestock production through rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, and increased pest and disease outbreaks. These challenges intensify food insecurity, particularly for smallholder farmers and pastoralists who rely on climate-sensitive agricultural systems. This systematic review aims to synthesize the impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture, with a specific focus on cereal production and livestock feed quality, while exploring effective adaptation strategies that can support resilience in the sector. The review synthesizes 50 peer-reviewed publications (2020–2024) from the Climate Change Effects on Food Security project, which supports young African academics and Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in addressing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Using PRISMA guidelines, the review assesses climate change impacts on major cereal crops and livestock feed in Ethiopia and explores adaptation strategies. Over the past 30 years, Ethiopia has experienced rising temperatures (0.3–0.66 °C), with future projections indicating increases of 0.6–0.8 °C per decade resulting in more frequent and severe droughts, floods, and landslides. These shifts have led to declining yields of wheat, maize, and barley, shrinking arable land, and deteriorating feed quality and water availability, severely affecting livestock health and productivity. The study identifies key on-the-ground adaptation strategies, including adjusted planting dates, crop diversification, drought-tolerant varieties, soil and water conservation, agroforestry, supplemental irrigation, and integrated fertilizer use. Livestock adaptations include improved breeding practices, fodder enhancement using legumes and local browse species, and seasonal climate forecasting. These results have significant practical implications: they offer a robust evidence base for policymakers, extension agents, and development practitioners to design and implement targeted, context-specific adaptation strategies. Moreover, the findings support the integration of climate resilience into national agricultural policies and food security planning. The Climate Change Effects on Food Security project’s role in generating scientific knowledge and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration is vital for building institutional and human capacity to confront climate challenges. Ultimately, this review contributes actionable insights for promoting sustainable, climate-resilient agriculture across Ethiopia.

1. Introduction

Climate change is the greatest global challenge of our time, characterized by its multidimensional and multidisciplinary nature [1]. The IPCC defines climate change as a significant long-term change in the mean state or variability of the climate, persisting for decades or longer [2]. In recent years, changes have become increasingly severe, driven by global warming. The IPCC’s Synthesis Report highlights that climate change has worsened food and water security through warming, altered rainfall patterns, cryosphere loss, and more frequent extreme weather events, impeding progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [3].

Africa is considered the most vulnerable continent to climate change due to its high dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, low adaptive capacity, and limited technological and financial resources [4]. The impacts of climate change on food security, water availability, and livelihoods are particularly pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa, where smallholder farmers and pastoralists are highly exposed to climatic shocks [5].

Among African nations, Ethiopia is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture, rapid population growth, low agricultural productivity [6] and persistent food insecurity. In Ethiopia, where 85% of the population depends on subsistence farming, and where agriculture contributes to 37.6% of the GDP [7], climate shocks such as droughts and floods severely impact agriculture, hence affecting food security and livelihoods of the majority of the population. In general, climate change is severely affecting Ethiopia’s crop and livestock production, livelihoods, biodiversity, and food systems, posing ongoing and future challenges [8,9]. Despite these significant challenges, various adaptation and resilience strategies have emerged across Ethiopia. Local innovations such as farmer-led soil and water conservation practices, indigenous knowledge systems for weather prediction, community-based natural resource management, and the preservation of diverse crop and livestock breeds are helping to mitigate some of the adverse effects of climate change. Notable examples of local resilience include the Konso cultural landscapes in southwestern Ethiopia and the Gedeo and Sidama agroforestry systems in Southern Ethiopia, which demonstrate the potential for scalable solutions rooted in community experience [10]. Integrating traditional and scientific knowledge systems offers a promising pathway to foster sustainable development and build both livelihood and ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change.

Cereal crops are Ethiopia’s main food source, occupying 81.2% of cultivated land and contributing 88.4% of total grain production [11]. Major crops such as teff (Eragrostis tef L.), maize (Zea mays L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) provide 64% of dietary calories [12,13] and account for 30% of GDP and 60% of agricultural GDP [14]. Given their economic and dietary importance, any disruption to cereal production poses a severe threat to food security and rural livelihoods. The impact of global events, such as the Russia–Ukraine war, has further increased fertilizer and food costs, threatening cereal yields and affecting food security [6,15]. In addition, Ethiopia has faced multiple internal shocks, including COVID-19 and armed conflicts, which have significantly reduced cereal production and disrupted food supply chains [16]. Conflict-related disruptions stem from multiple sources, including civil unrest in regions such as Tigray, Oromia and Amhara, where large-scale fighting has displaced farmers, destroyed farmland, and limited access to agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizers. Furthermore, instability has restricted market access, making it difficult for farmers to sell their produce and for consumers to obtain affordable staple foods [17].

The livestock sector is vital to Ethiopia, providing food, income, and services to 85% of the rural population [18]. Despite having the largest livestock population in Africa, Ethiopia’s livestock productivity remains low due to feed shortages, diseases, poor management, and limited genetic potential [18,19]. Climate change exacerbates feed quality and availability problems, while livestock contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions [20].

As one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, Ethiopia’s dependence on agriculture for livelihoods and food security makes it imperative to understand and address these climate change driven challenges. Existing review studies often focus on specific aspects of climate change, such as its impacts on agriculture [21], smallholder farmers [9], or livestock production and productivity [22]. However, no single study has comprehensively addressed the combined impacts, adaptation strategies, and policy implications for both crop and livestock production, leaving a critical gap in the development of effective, context-specific responses.

In response to the growing challenges posed by climate change, several initiatives were put in place to improve climate adaptation and mitigation efforts and reduce the effects of climate change on agricultural production and food security. One such initiative is the CLIFOOD (Climate Change Effects on Food Security) project, launched in 2016, as a collaboration between Hawassa University (Ethiopia) and the University of Hohenheim (Germany). The project focuses on educating young academics from Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and agricultural Research Systems in the Eastern African region, with a particular emphasis on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to food security and climate change.

CLIFOOD is supported by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) with funding from the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Through its interdisciplinary research and professional training programs, the project contributes to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by training professionals and producing interdisciplinary research, resulting in 25 PhD scholars and 4 postdoc researchers specializing in climate change and food security. To place Ethiopia’s climate challenges within a broader regional perspective, it is useful to consider adaptation efforts in other climate-vulnerable countries, such as Kenya, where integrated climate services, drought-tolerant crop varieties, and livestock insurance schemes have shown promising results [23]. Drawing lessons from these cases can inform Ethiopia’s approach and enhance the effectiveness of local interventions.

The objective of this systematic review is to synthesize the impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture, with a specific focus on cereal production and livestock feed quality, while exploring adaptation strategies. To achieve this objective, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed publications from the CLIFOOD project, supplemented by additional research, following PRISMA guidelines [24] to ensure accuracy and transparency. The CLIFOOD project employs advanced methodologies, tools, and scenarios, including high-resolution CMIP6 climate projections, CHIRPS and CHIRTS datasets, shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), crop simulation models, machine learning, surveys, field experiments, qualitative studies, and meta-analyses. These tools provide accurate insights into the impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture and enabled the identification of effective, context-specific adaptation strategies. The research also spanned different regions of Ethiopia, including the Central Rift Valley, and was organized into five thematic areas: climate change, food security, agronomy, animal nutrition, and human nutrition.

In addition, the scope of the study has been aligned with global and national priorities, particularly the UN SDGs, such as zero hunger (SDG 2) and climate action (SDG 13). Leveraging the robust research findings of the CLIFOOD project is the central motivation for this review. The findings from this work will inform policymakers, researchers and practitioners and enable the development of targeted, context-specific interventions. The findings will also empower smallholder farmers with practical knowledge to implement climate-smart practices, thereby enhancing resilience and ensuring sustainable agricultural development in Ethiopia. Additionally, the review incorporates studies that emphasize the perspectives of local communities, capturing how smallholder farmers and pastoralists perceive climate change and respond through culturally and ecologically grounded practices. Including these voices enriches the analysis and ensures that proposed solutions are aligned with the lived realities on the ground.

This synthesis aims to address the following key questions in the context of Ethiopia:

(i)

How does climate change currently and potentially impact major cereal crop production and livestock feed quality in Ethiopia?

(ii)

What are the positive and negative impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers and pastoralists?

(iii)

What adaptation strategies have been proposed to mitigate these impacts?

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Design

We conducted a systematic review to synthesize the findings of peer-reviewed publications from the CLIFOOD project. These publications served as the central focus of the review. To extend and support the findings of CLIFOOD, the study also incorporated published supplementary sources. Unpublished results have not been considered. Given the multidisciplinary nature of the project, we categorized the reviewed studies into five thematic areas: climate change, food security, animal nutrition, agronomy, and human nutrition. The review employed a narrative synthesis approach.

2.2. Search Strategy

We searched databases such as Google Scholar, Scopus, and ScienceDirect, as well as grey literature, including government evaluation reports on crop area production (ha) and yield (t/ha) analysis, which were used to provide a more comprehensive and balanced assessment. Peer-reviewed publications from the CLIFOOD project, published in English between 2020 and 2024, were used in the review. The literature search was conducted by two independent reviewers. The keywords used for electronic searches were “climate change impacts”, “climate extremes”, “adaptation strategies”, “cereal crops”, and “livestock feed”. The review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and checklist [24].

2.3. Eligibility Criteria

CLIFOOD peer-reviewed publications were included if they met the following criteria: (i) addressed climate change, such as the current and projected impacts of climate change on cereal crops and livestock, as well as adaptation strategies, (ii) addressed food security, including the management of agricultural systems under policies and principles of sustainable development, and (iii) addressed animal nutrition, particularly improvements in feed quality.

2.4. Data Extraction

For this systematic review, only articles related to climate change, food security, and animal nutrition (as specified in the inclusion criteria) were extracted, while studies on agronomy (limited to legume crops to reduce bias and method-related heterogeneity) and human nutrition were excluded, as they fell outside the study’s scope. Figure 1 presents a flow diagram of the search and selection process. Of the 50 articles initially collected, 3 were excluded because they focused on human nutrition, leaving 47 for screening. During screening, keywords such as “climate change impacts”, “climate extremes”, “adaptation strategies”, “cereal crops”, and “livestock feed” were applied. These keywords were carefully selected to align with the main objectives of the review, which focused on understanding the impacts of climate change on cereal crops production and livestock feed quality in Ethiopia, as well as identifying relevant adaptation strategies. This process resulted in the exclusion of an additional 21 articles. The remaining 26 articles were thoroughly reviewed, analyzed, and included to synthesize the impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture, with a specific focus on cereal production, livestock feed quality, and adaptation strategies (Figure 1).

The findings were synthesized into five categories:

• Past climate impact assessments;
• Future climate projections;
• Climate change impacts on cereal crop production;
• Effects on livestock production and feed quality;
• Potential adaptation strategies.

These categories provided a comprehensive framework for interpreting the results of review. The CLIFOOD articles synthesized in this review study are listed in

Table 1. CLIFOOD project studies included in the systematic review and their characteristics.

Study Category	Author and Year	Study Region
Climate Change and Crop Yield Projections	Rettie, F.M. et al., 2022 [25], 2023a [26], 2023b [27], 2023c [28] Gardi, M.W. et al., 2021 [29], 2022a [30], 2022b [31] Habte, A. et al., 2021 [32], 2023 [33]	Amhara Region, Ethiopia Central and Western Highlands of Ethiopia Southwest Ethiopia
Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies	Ware, M.B. et al., 2022 [34] Habte, A. et al., 2020 [35] Ejeta, A.T., 2023 [36] Senbeta, A.F. et al., 2024a [37], 2024b [38] Kayamo, S.E. et al., 2023 [39] Bayssa, M. et al., 2021 [40]	Northeastern, Northwestern, Southeastern and Southwestern Region Central Ethiopia Region Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia Borana Lowlands of Ethiopia
Fertilization Strategies and Agricultural Practices	Yimer, T. et al., 2022 [41], 2024 [42] Wendimu, A. et al., 2023a [43], 2023b [44]	Sidama Region, Southern Ethiopia Ethiopia
Livestock Nutrition and Feed Alternatives	Tadesse, A. et al., 2022a [45], 2022b [46], 2022c [47], 2024 [20] Bayssa, M. et al., 2021 [40] Belete, S. et al., 2024 [48]	Sidama Region, Southern Ethiopia Borana Lowlands of Ethiopia Ethiopia
Policy Implications	Senbeta, A.F. and Worku, W., 2023 [49]	Ethiopia

.

2.5. CLIFOOD Study Topics and Alignment with the SDGs

The CLIFOOD studies covered a wide range of topics aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly No Poverty (SDG 1), Zero Hunger (SDG 2), Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3), Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG 6), Climate Action (SDG 13), and Life on Land (SDG 15). These studies provided valuable insights into climate change, food security, and nutrition within the Ethiopian context.

The key research topics examined in CLIFOOD studies include the following:

• Climate projections for Ethiopia using high-resolution CMIP6 data;
• Assessments of climate extremes and their impacts;
• Impacts of climate change on maize and wheat production;
• Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their adaptation strategies;
• Model-based yield gap analysis for sorghum;
• Effects of elevated CO₂ and temperature on barley;
• Locust infestations and their effects on agricultural productivity;
• Characterization of Ethiopia’s climate regions;
• Seasonal rainfall prediction for improved agricultural planning;
• Wheat production pathways and their implications for food security;
• Production, reproduction, and climate adaptation traits of Boran cattle;
• Nutritional value of indigenous crops and their role in livestock feed.

These research areas contribute significantly to understanding the challenges and opportunities related to climate change and food security in Ethiopia. The findings from these studies support evidence-based decision-making and policy formulation to enhance sustainable agriculture.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Past Climate Impact Assessment Based on Climatic Regions of Ethiopia

Ware et al. [34] identified four different homogeneous climatic regions in Ethiopia. To identify homogenous climatic regions [34], the authors used Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) (~6 km resolution) and TerraClimate (~4 km resolution) data from 1985 to 2018. The identified regions are named as Northeastern Region (NER), Southeastern Region (SER), Northwestern Region (NWR), and Southwestern Region (SWR) (Figure 2).

The NER of Ethiopia, known as the Danakil Depression, is among Africa’s hottest areas, with average temperatures around 40 °C [34]. It has historically faced severe droughts, primarily due to weak Kiremt rains (main rainy season that occurs in June–September), which contribute to chronic food insecurity and reduced agricultural productivity [50,51].

On the other hand, the SER, which includes areas such as Somali and parts of Oromia, is characterized by arid and semi-arid conditions, water scarcity and high temperatures with annual rainfall below 400 mm and maximum temperatures reaching 35 °C [34]. Rainfall in the SER follows a double season, with most rainfall occurring from March to May and less from September to November. This seasonal pattern is influenced by the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Over the past 30 years, the region has experienced frequent droughts, water scarcity, and rising temperatures, making it highly vulnerable to climate change [34,52].

The NWR holds a strategic position in Ethiopia’s economic development due to its vast area and high agricultural potential. The region receives rainfall once during the Kiremt season (June to September) with seasonal temperature variations of up to 3 °C [34]. However, with rapid population growth, NWR has experienced more frequent natural hazards such as floods [53] and landslides [54] in recent decades. In addition, Ware et al. [34] pointed out that Kiremt rainfall over the NWR has decreased in recent decades, which could have a serious impact on the country’s food security.

The SWR has high rainfall (1800 mm/yr) compared to the SER (350 mm/yr) due to its topography and tropical monsoon climate [34]. Its bimodal rainfall pattern aligns with ITCZ movements, with peaks in March to May and September to November. While increased rainfall benefits agriculture, it also causes flooding, landslides, and urban drainage issues. The region has also experienced annual maximum and minimum temperatures increases by 0.71 and 0.65 °C, respectively, over the last 30 years [32,33,34].

Overall, the mean annual and seasonal air temperature trend indicates that temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.66 °C/decade in all climatic regions of Ethiopia over the past three decades [34], indicating that global warming has exacerbated water scarcity [55]. Rising temperatures will increase atmospheric water demand, which could lead to additional water stress from through increased water pressure deficits, resulting in reduced soil moisture and decreasing crop yield.

Senbeta et al. [38] analyzed spatiotemporal climate variability and its implications for food security in central Ethiopia, highlighting significant changes in Belg (short rainy season) rainfall. Between 2000 and 2019, Belg rainfall decreased by 15% compared to 1981–1999, while maximum temperatures increased significantly during the annual, Belg, and Bega (dry) seasons. Frequent droughts, with one occurring every 2.9 years during the Kiremt (long rainy season) and Belg seasons, and increasing negative rainfall anomalies pose serious threats to food security and poverty eradication in the region [56].

3.2. Climate Change Impact Projections in Ethiopia

Bias-corrected high-resolution daily climate data and climate extreme indices for Ethiopia were produced by Rettie et al. [26,27]. The authors used 16 General Circulation Model (GCM) datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), from 2020 to 2100 under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios to generate higher resolution daily rainfall and temperature data over all of Ethiopia [27]. This new climate dataset will be useful for Ethiopia to assess future climate change and to drive high-resolution impact assessment models. The daily temperature and rainfall data generated have also been used to project changes in climate extremes for Ethiopia [27]. Of the 27 climate change indicators developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), Rettie and his colleagues identified 23 climate extreme indices for Ethiopia.

Analysis of extreme maximum and minimum temperatures from the CMIP6 models under a higher emission scenario showed that future extreme temperature trends could increase by 0.6 to 0.8 °C per decade in the warmest regions of Ethiopia, particularly in the northeastern part of the country [27]. These projections underscore that the regions that have been largely threatened in the past will also face the strongest climate change effects in the future. Increased warming in this region will influence environmental changes and water resource availability in the future. For example, Northeastern Ethiopia largely covers arid areas adjacent to the northwestern highlands, mostly the Great Rift Valley [34], and the severe temperature increases under SSP5-8.5 will aggravate environmental degradation such as frequent droughts and desertification [57]. In addition, future projections of minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to increase the number of hot days and nights in the future, leading to extreme and severe droughts in the region. Therefore, it is critical that more attention is given to adaptation measures in Northeastern Ethiopia in the future.

On the other hand, the researchers projected high frequency and intensity of rainfall-related extreme indices, described as the number of rainy days, rainfall totals and wet days, over most of Ethiopia [27]. Drought and excessive rainfall are ranked as the first and second most important causes of crop production losses among extreme events in Ethiopia. Crop yields are vulnerable to both extreme rainfall and intense drought events. The projected exceptionally high number of both very wet and extremely very wet days in a small pocket region in the northwestern part of the country could affect crop growth and development through low soil aeration, making the crops susceptible to root diseases and soil-borne pathogens, flooding, soil erosion, and leaching of fertile topsoil [58,59]. The southeastern part of the country, which belongs to the arid and semi-arid regions of Ethiopia [26], will experience a significant increase of 10 days of rainfall per decade in the future. This would have a positive impact on arid and semi-arid areas, including the Somali and Borena Lowlands of pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood systems by providing water and pasture availability in the future.

3.3. Effect of Climate Change on Cereal Crops Production in Ethiopia

Cereal crops such as wheat, maize, barley, teff, and sorghum are very important crops to Ethiopia’s food security. Increasing their productivity is critical, but challenges such as declining soil fertility, declining arable land, population growth, and climate change threaten future production [60]. The areas under major cereal crops vary across regions of Ethiopia. Over the past 26 years, the total area under cereal production has increased in the Amhara and Oromia regions. However, in Tigray and the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region (SNNPR), the area under production has stagnated from 1995 to 2021, showing no significant improvement (Figure 3), although yields have increased slightly in smaller areas (Figure 4). Trend analysis shows that production of the five major cereal crops is predominantly concentrated in these regions.

On the other hand, the yield trends (t/ha) of major cereal crops have shown a steady increase in all regions over the past 26 years (Figure 4), with Oromia recording the highest total yield. Oromia also leads in maize area and yield, followed by Amhara and SNNPR, respectively (Figure 3 and Figure 4). The graphs show similar patterns for barley, maize, sorghum, teff, and wheat production areas over the period. However, overall yields in SNNPR and Tigray increased significantly in 2021 compared to 1995. These findings provide valuable insights into cereal production trends in key regions and their implications for national food security.

The likely impacts of climate change on crop yields can be determined using either experimental data or crop growth simulation models. For predicting future impacts on crop yield, crop models provide a valuable approach [61]. A number of crop simulation models, such as CERES-Maize, CERES-Wheat, CERES-Barley, CERES-Sorghum, APSIM, AquaCrop, Agroecosystem models, GECROS (Genotype-by-Environment interaction on Crop growth simulator), and SPASS (a generic process-oriented crop model with versatile), have been widely used in Ethiopia in recent years to assess the possible impacts of climate change on crop production, especially to analyze the climate sensitivity of crop yield under different scenarios [25,28,30,31,35,62,63]. Studies have shown that crop yield is affected by climate change, mainly by rainfall, temperature and elevated CO₂ concentrations. A study by Rettie et al. [25] used a multi-model ensemble approach to quantify the impact of projected climate change on maize and wheat yields in Ethiopia. They found that wheat yield is more sensitive to changes in CO₂ concentration, temperature and nitrogen fertilizer than maize yield. This is due to the fact that the response of cereal crops including wheat and maize to climate variables depends on several complex and interrelated factors, including radiation, soil nutrient availability, fertilizer application, pest and disease prevalence and other variations in rainfall such as waterlogging and flooding [64]. Rettie et al. [25] also projected a 1.2 to 1.4 °C increase in annual temperatures in the major wheat- and maize-producing areas of Ethiopia.

Projected increases in annual temperatures are expected to have a significant impact on cereal crop production in Ethiopia. Wheat yields are expected to decline by 36–40% by 2050 due to shorter growing seasons, which are expected to be reduced by eight to nine days under the warming scenario [25]. In addition, Rettie et al. [28] projected a 30% reduction in wheat yields across much of the country by the end of the 21st century, particularly in the northern and eastern regions, due to rising temperatures, reduced rainfall and soil moisture deficits. Similar trends have been reported across East Africa. A recent multi-country study by Alimagham et al. [65] examined the impacts of climate change on rainfed cereal crops in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania. The study found that while moderate impacts are anticipated by 2050, more substantial yield reductions are likely by 2090 under high-emission scenarios. Notably, the authors emphasized that the adoption of late-maturing cultivars could help mitigate some of these losses [65], which aligns with findings from Ethiopia-based projections. These parallels underscore the regional nature of cereal crop vulnerability to climate change and highlight a shared need across East Africa for the development and dissemination of heat- and drought-resilient varieties.

The northern and eastern regions are expected to face the most severe declines due to their already low rainfall, high susceptibility to drought, and exposure to extreme temperatures. Climate change is also predicted to reduce land suitability for wheat production, with up to 100% of currently suitable land in central Ethiopia potentially becoming unsuitable in the coming decades. Moderately and highly suitable habitats for wheat are projected to decline by 7% in 2030 and 0.3% in 2050 under different scenarios [37,49].

Maize yields are projected to increase by up to 10% on average, with localized regions increases of up to 30%, but could decrease by up to 4% under high emission scenarios [28]. Maize is a C₄ crop and tolerates heat better than C₃ crops like wheat, benefiting from increased temperature in highland regions, but excessive high temperature under high-emission scenarios can shorten growth and reduce yields [66,67]. Maize production is similarly at risk, with temperature increases leading to up to a 2% yield reduction and a 12-day shorter growing season by 2050, posing significant challenges to food security [25].

Barley will also face severe impacts from climate change and extreme weather events, including higher temperatures. A study by Gardi et al. [31] using five global climate models and the CERES-Barley model under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios predicted significant yield reductions for major barley cultivars such as Traveller (malting barley) and EH-1493 (food barley) in different locations such as Asella, Ambo, Holeta, and Jimma. An increase in temperature would speed up metabolic processes, leading to faster phenological development, resulting in a reduction in the duration of plant growth and ultimately a reduction in yield. The increased temperature adversely affects photosynthesis and metabolic disorders resulting in yield reduction [68]. In addition, high temperature affects the normal growth and development of crops as each crop species has its own range of minimum and maximum temperatures at different stages of development such as vegetative, reproductive and seed filling stages, beyond which the overall physiological, bio-chemical and metabolic activities are affected resulting in significant loss of crop yield that eventually affects food security [69,70].

The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that CO₂ levels could rise to 550 ppm by 2050 [71]. Climate models indicate that the Earth’s near-surface temperature could also increase significantly by 1.4 to 5.8 °C as a result of higher concentrations of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases [2,72]. These projections underscore the urgency of addressing these issues and taking steps to adapt to the impacts of climate change. However, research has shown that increases in atmospheric CO₂ can benefit plant biomass in cereals such as barley, wheat, and maize by increasing net photosynthetic rate. Rettie et al. [28] examined the projected impacts of climate change on wheat and maize yields in Ethiopia, both with and without CO₂ fertilization effects. Their results showed that under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), wheat yields could decrease by 4% at the national median and by 18% at the 5th percentile, while maize yields could increase by 2.5% at the median, but decrease by 4% at the 5th percentile. However, CO₂ fertilization significantly increases yields, with wheat showing a 17% increase and maize showing a 12% increase, highlighting a greater benefit for wheat. Elevated CO₂ increases photosynthesis, leaf area, biomass, and yield, as seen in studies by Gardi et al. [29,30], who observed increases in plant height, biomass, and grain yield in barley under elevated CO₂. These responses vary depending on factors such as genotype, temperature, nitrogen fertilizer, and management practices. In addition, elevated CO₂ combined with higher fertilizer fertilization and elevated temperatures can improve barley yield and biomass, as confirmed by previous studies [73]. These results provide strong evidence for the positive impact of elevated CO₂ on crop productivity, suggesting that higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations can enhance the growth and yield of cereal crops. Therefore, CO₂ fertilization may be favored for adaptation in a future climate. However, a detailed understanding of CO₂ fertilization should be considered in the development of adaptation technologies.

3.4. Effect of Climate Change on Feed Quality and Production of Livestock in Ethiopia

The majority of smallholder livestock farms in developing countries are characterized by low productivity, low feed availability, and poor quality of feed resources [74] and are more vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. Climate change has been shown to affect the quantity and quality of feed, water resources and animal health in Ethiopia [40,75]. Furthermore, its effect is expected to reduce livestock productivity by 50% in 2050s [76]. In Ethiopia, projected climate impacts, including more frequent and intense extreme weather events, rising daytime and nighttime temperature, increased carbon dioxide levels, shifts in rainfall patterns, and more frequent occurrences of drought and floods, suggest that forage plants will highly face harsh environmental conditions in the coming decades [25,26,27,30,31,34]. These changes could have both direct and indirect effects on livestock production. The direct effects of rising temperature and drought have been shown to reduce forage nutritional quality, digestibility and availability of feed and water to smallholder livestock farmers who live particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of Ethiopia, while the indirect effects may include changes in plant species composition, soil degradation, increased thermal stress and sudden disease outbreaks and economic and social pressures [22,40]. Overall, the effects of temperature, drought and carbon dioxide on feed quality and livestock production are described below.

3.4.1. Temperature-Related Effects

High temperature leads to earlier stem elongation and tissue senescence due to faster rate of decline in cell wall digestibility of both vegetative and reproductive tillers during aging, and then faster decline in the digestibility of forages [77]. High temperature increases the lignification process by increasing individual cell lignification and decreases forage digestibility [78]. In addition, higher temperature affects cellular functions by direct alteration and impairment of various tissues or organs of the reproductive system in livestock [79]. Higher temperatures and associated heat stress with increased body temperature lead to elevated respiration, pulse, and heart rates. Consequently, it reduces feed intake, milk production, and reproduction efficiency by up to 30% in cattle and small ruminants [80]. Studies also indicate a 2–3 times higher mortality rate in heat-stressed animals compared to those in moderate climates [80].

3.4.2. Drought-Related Effects

Drought effects have also been related to forage quality. Drought perpetually decreases forage plant quality through reducing plant biomass production, with the leaf area affecting the root, shoot and leaf stem ratio and accelerated flowering and lignin accumulation, affecting morphology and nutritional quality [81]. However, the impact varies among species or cultivars and interaction with other environmental limitations or management practices [82]. Previous studies have also demonstrated that drought can decrease protein concentration due to an increase in protein degradation, a decrease in nitrogen assimilation and a decrease in protein synthesis [83]. Similar studies across East Africa have shown that increased temperature and droughts have significantly reduced forage quality and livestock body condition in northern Kenya, leading to decreased milk yield and reproductive performance [84]. Therefore, developing forage cultivars that are high yielding in biomass and drought tolerant is a priority for the Horn of Africa in general, and for Ethiopia’s livestock production in particular, where droughts are becoming increasingly frequent.

3.4.3. Carbon Dioxide (CO₂)-Related Effects

Climate change may also affect forage quality through elevated carbon dioxide. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ often leads to increased plant production, greater water use efficiency and higher soil water content, but may also result in reducing forage quality, by lowering digestibility, particularly in nutrient-limited agro-ecologies [85]. The findings of numerous studies revealed an increase in plant height, biomass, grain number and grain yield under elevated CO₂ [29,30]. However, whether these gains are accompanied by nutritional compromises remains a critical concern. For example, a recent study in Tanzania found that although elevated CO₂ increased biomass production in native grasses, it concurrently leads to reductions in crude protein content [86], confirming the nutritional trade-offs highlighted in this review. These findings underscore a regional pattern in East Africa, where productivity gains under elevated CO₂ may come at the expense of forage quality. Long-term experimental evidence supports this concern. Seibert et al. [87] assessed the 18-year effects of elevated CO₂ on forage quality in extensively managed grassland systems and found that elevated CO₂ reduced the nutritional value of forbs, primarily due to decreased crude protein and fat content and increased crude fiber. Similarly, a meta-analysis by Dumont et al. [88] reported significant reductions in forage protein content under elevated CO₂, attributing this to a dilution effect caused by an overall rise in non-structural carbohydrates, rather than a true decrease in leaf protein synthesis. Therefore, this trade-off between increased biomass and reduced nutritional quality is a critical consideration for livestock production systems that rely heavily on forage, particularly in regions already facing feed shortages due to climate change.

Forage quality depends on nutrient concentration, which determines digestibility, partitioning of metabolized products in the digestive tract and forage intake, which strongly affects animal performance [89]. The quality of forage is estimated by chemical analyses, such as ash and nitrogen content, total non-structural carbohydrates content and structural carbohydrates, acid detergent fiber and acid detergent lignin, and by biological analyses, which are mainly based on the estimation of organic matter digestibility using ruminal fluid in vitro [90]. The existing literature is so inconsistent about the effect of increased CO₂ on forage quality parameters like crude protein, C/N ratios, crude fiber, ash, total non-structural carbohydrates or lipids because crop responses to elevated CO₂ are not easily predictable since it is dependent on multiple environmental factors that are not necessarily important. For example, Leakey et al. [91] reported that a plant’s C/N ratio may be high due to deficient nitrogen supply, leading to a decrease in Rubisco activity and thus lower photosynthetic rates. On the other hand, Dong et al. [92] reported that biomass enhancement under elevated CO₂ may be dependent on sufficient N supply in some species. However, the effect is expected to vary among forage species. Despite the obvious relevance for livestock production, elevated CO₂ effects and its combined effect with high temperature and rainfall change on forage quality still need more research [93].

Livestock is adversely affected by the harmful effects of extreme weather conditions. The effects of climatic extremes and seasonal fluctuations on feed quantity and quality can affect livestock welfare, leading to reductions in production and reproductive efficiency [94]. The extreme climate shocks make smallholders more vulnerable and the links between climate and economic shocks and welfare of the smallholder farmers have also been assessed in recent studies [36]. In one study, the author indicated that climate shocks adversely affect the welfare of resource poor farmers in Ethiopia to the extent that they face temporary food shortages, loss of optional income, and depletion of livestock assets and lead to a long-term livelihood crisis as a result of longer period recovery from the shock [36].

The livestock sector plays an important role in climate change by producing methane (CH₄) in the gastrointestinal tract and this forms the largest source of anthropogenic CH₄ [95]. As forage quality declines, digestibility decreases, leading to a shift in ruminal fermentation towards fiber degradation, which in turn increases methane emissions per unit of feed consumed [96]. Poorly digestible pastures with a high C:N ratio not only reduce livestock productivity but also exacerbate ruminal CH₄ emissions due to inefficient energy utilization [97]. Feed composition and intake play a crucial role in modulating enteric fermentation and methane output. Increasing the proportion of high-energy feeds, such as legumes, in the diet can mitigate methane emissions [46]. For instance, an in vitro study by Tadesse et al. [46] demonstrated that replacing concentrate mix with sweet potato vine reduced CH₄ emissions without compromising feed intake or weight gain in rams. Therefore, when forage quality declines, strategic dietary adjustments, such as reducing forage intake and supplementing with legumes, are essential to counteract increased methane production and maintain livestock productivity [98].

3.5. Potential Adaptation Strategies to Combat Climate Change and Enhance Cereal Crop Yield and Livestock Feed Quality

3.5.1. Agronomic Interventions

Changing Planting Dates: This is a crucial adaptation strategy for coping with the effects of climate change in Ethiopia [32,99]. By adjusting the timing of planting, farmers can better align their crops’ growth stages with favorable environmental conditions and avoid periods of stress caused by extreme weather. Studies show its effectiveness among rainfed smallholder farmers in north-central Ethiopia, where 13.3% of farmers adopting climate measures used this approach [99]. In addition, research in northwest Ethiopia found that 69% of farmers in wet lowland areas and 59% of dry lowland farmers adjusted planting dates or used early maturing varieties [100]. Similarly, in Central Ethiopia’s Gurage Zone, 40% of lowland and 35.48% of highland farmers adopted this strategy [101]. These adjustments reduced climate risks and increased the chances of successful harvests.

Crop Diversification: This is another agronomic practice that has emerged as a key adaptation strategy for smallholder farmers in Ethiopia to cope with climate change [102,103]. By diversifying their crop types, including shifting towards high-value crops such as horticultural crops, farmers aim to optimize the use of scarce farm resources. This approach has been particularly noted in northwest Ethiopia, where it serves as a vital adaptation option [100]. Studies in southwestern parts of Ethiopia show that farmers use improved vegetable varieties like potato, tomato, garlic, onion, and pepper to increase production and income [102]. A World Bank study also found that crop diversification stabilizes yields for rural smallholder farmers [104]. Similarly, a survey of 600 smallholder farmers in Southern Ethiopia revealed that 56.1% used crop diversification to mitigate climate impacts [105]. In addition, intercropping may increase farm productivity and extend crop cultivation across different regions. In Southern Ethiopia, maize intercropped with common beans proved more profitable than sole cropping [41]. This production system supports sustainability goals like SDG2, SDG13, and SDG15 [106].

Drought-Tolerant Improved Crop Varieties: This is a common adaptation mechanism used by farmers in Ethiopia to cope with climate change [102]. These crops have deep roots for water access, efficient water use, early maturation, and specialized traits like osmotic adjustment, stomatal regulation, and heat tolerance to survive drought conditions [107,108]. A study in northeastern Amhara found that 69.2% of sorghum farmers used medium-maturing landraces like Jameyo, Jegurete, and Cherekit to cope with drought [109]. Similarly, in northwestern Ethiopia, farmers increasingly cultivate short-maturing barley, teff, and wheat varieties to adapt to erratic rainfall [110]. Regional efforts reflect similar trends in farmer adaptation across East Africa. In Uganda, the national agricultural extension program has promoted drought-tolerant maize varieties, which have contributed to improved yields during periods of irregular rainfall [111]. Likewise, in Tanzania, participatory breeding programs have proven effective in developing and disseminating drought-tolerant sorghum varieties, particularly in arid regions [112]. These practices underscore a broader regional shift toward climate-resilient cropping systems, aligning with strategies already being implemented by Ethiopian farmers.

Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) Practices: This is a critical climate change adaptation strategy in Ethiopia, particularly in regions prone to land degradation, erratic rainfall, less fertile soils and drought [32,113]. These practices aim to maintain or improve soil fertility, reduce erosion, and enhance water availability, thereby increasing the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change. Studies in Konso and South Omo show that 66.21% of farmers use SWC measures such as terracing, contour plowing, crop rotation, and intercropping as their primary adaptation strategy [32]. In Konso, where 80% of the land is semiarid (Kolla), terracing is widely adopted (82.8%) to conserve water, prevent erosion, and sustain farming on steep slopes [114]. In Amhara, SWC interventions have reduced soil erosion by 57–81% and surface runoff by 19–50%, helping maintain soil organic carbon and mitigate land degradation [115]. In addition, living hedges improve soil properties, reduce runoff, minimize erosion, and enhance fertility by returning key nutrients, ultimately increasing crop yields [116,117].

Agroforestry Practices: This is one of the most prominent land use systems across agricultural landscapes and agro-ecological zones in Ethiopia [118,119,120]. Agroforestry is emerging as a promising land use for combating climate change, with the potential to enhance household food security and nutrition amidst rising food prices [121]. A study conducted in the districts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) shows that 78% of smallholder farmers adapt to climate challenges by modifying home garden agroforestry, incorporating fruit trees and improved coffee practices such as proper spacing, pruning, and use of disease-resistant varieties [122]. In addition, in the Chora district of the Buno Bedele Zone in western Ethiopia, 82.4% of farmers rely on agroforestry for income, earning an average of ETB 24,742.09 annually, surpassing the income generated from mono-cropping [123]. Similarly, smallholder farmers practicing agroforestry in the Amhara region achieved approximately 17% higher yields [124] and around 7% higher incomes [125] compared to those not practicing agroforestry. Therefore, agroforestry practices are widely recognized as an effective strategy to address food insecurity and adapt to climate change in Ethiopia [126].

3.5.2. Technological and Management Approaches

Supplementary Irrigation: Irrigation is increasingly viewed as a key strategy to enhance agricultural productivity and meet the growing food demand in Ethiopia [43,49]. The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) reported yield increments of 25–40% from improved small-scale irrigation generally and up to 100% from spring-based irrigation systems, which in turn increased farmers’ income and financial stability [127]. In Tigray, the use of supplementary irrigation increased crop yields, boosting teff by approximately 0.5 t/ha, wheat by about 0.7 t/ha, and barley by around 0.6 t/ha compared to rain-fed cultivation [128]. Expansion of irrigation is an effective adaptation strategy for improving the productivity of smallholder farmers in wheat-producing areas and stabilizing food security under climate change [43,49]. Studies further underscored irrigation’s future significance. In Northern Ethiopia, it counters drought and the effects of unreliable or early, short-lived rainfall [129]. Applying 150 mm of irrigation with 64 kg N/ha fertilizer could boost maize yields by 5–12% in 90% of maize-growing agroecological zones in Ethiopia by mid-century under future climate scenarios [130].

Integrated Soil Fertility Management: Use of integrated inorganic and organic fertilizers and a combined application of inorganic fertilizer have been implemented in Ethiopia to enhance agricultural productivity by maintaining soil nutrient balance and ensuring adequate crop yields to feed the growing population in a changing climate [42,44]. Studies in Ethiopia highlight several benefits of this holistic approach to crop yields. A study by Yimer et al. [42] in Southern Ethiopia demonstrated that combined NPK fertilizer application significantly outperforms applying N, P, or K alone. Omitting N, P, or K resulted in 5–28%, 4–44%, and 21% maize yield losses, respectively, compared to the lower rate of full NPK application. Combined NPK application enhances nutrient uptake, improves nutrient use efficiency, ensures balanced nutrition, promotes healthy plant growth, boosts yields, and maintains soil fertility [42]. Wendimu et al. [44] highlighted Phosphate Solubilizing Bacteria (PSB) as a sustainable alternative to chemical fertilizers, converting insoluble phosphate into plant-usable forms while enhancing growth and disease resistance. Their adoption is essential due to the environmental damage and high costs of chemical fertilizers alone. As climate challenges threaten cereal production, requiring integrated and scaled-up adaptation strategies [28,30,31,37].

Breeding Techniques: To further enhance crop yields and counter the effects of climate change, technical solutions such as breeding and releasing new crop varieties that can withstand extreme weather events (e.g., drought, flood, high temperatures) with stable production rates are essential. For example, studies in southwest Ethiopia found that 33.95% of smallholder farmers have adopted newly released drought-tolerant varieties, while 27.03% have used early maturing varieties as adaptation strategies [32]. This shift represents a significant improvement over traditional varieties, whose yields drastically reduced with a 0.71 °C increase in maximum temperatures and a 0.65 °C increase in minimum temperatures [32]. For livestock, selective breeding improves tolerance to heat, disease, and low-quality feed, enhancing growth and reproduction [40]. Breeds like Boran cattle exhibit natural drought tolerance and efficient digestion, making them ideal for adaptation. Crossbreeding with Zebu or exotic breeds can further enhance climate resilience in livestock production in Ethiopia [40].

Improving Feed Quality: Enhancing feed quality is essential for boosting livestock productivity. Key strategies include modifying diet composition and incorporating local browse species, forage legumes, and leaves [20,46,47,48]. Tadesse et al. [46] reported that local browse and leaves improved ram performance while reducing methane emissions. Similarly, replacing up to 20% of concentrate mix with dried Leucaena leucocephala leaves reduced methane production without affecting feed intake or growth [47]. Tadesse et al. [20] also found that supplementing Cajanus cajan leaves in yearling rams maintained weight gain and carcass quality while significantly lowering methane emissions. Belete et al. [48] highlighted the high protein content (16.3–22.8%) and good digestibility (>50%) of herbaceous forages and legumes and the improved nutrient intake, weight gain, and carcass yield when supplementing low-quality diets. These strategies help to address Ethiopia’s dry-season feed challenges while reducing methane emissions. Increasing concentrated feed proportions and incorporating vegetable- and oilseed-based supplements further enhance forage digestibility and lower enteric methane emissions. For instance, Tadesse et al. [45] found that adding sweet potato vine to a concentrated diet had no negative impact on feed intake or weight gain, making it a promising forage option.

3.5.3. Economic and Policy-Based Strategies

Livelihood Diversification: This plays a key role in climate change adaptation, helping to sustain the viability and resilience of agriculture in Ethiopia [32,131]. To cope with the impacts of climate change, smallholder farmers adopt diverse strategies, including on-farm, non-farm, and off-farm activities. These approaches enable them to adapt and build resilience against the challenges posed by a changing climate. For instance, in the drought-prone Lasta and Beyeda districts of the Amhara region in Northern Ethiopia, smallholder farmers have adapted the practice of rainwater harvesting to irrigate land, and cultivate perennial crops, and practice beekeeping instead of focusing solely on cereal crops [132]. This approach has yielded some success, with farmers supplying honey to the nearby towns. The farmers also grow early-maturing barley varieties, which are used for brewing beer. Additionally, due to attractive local market prices, many farmers in these areas have turned to growing eucalyptus trees and hops (locally known as “gesho”) for sale [132].

A study conducted in the Arero district of the Borena Zone in Southern Ethiopia and Rayitu district in the Bale Zone in southeastern Ethiopia reveals that pastoral households mitigate climate shocks by growing short-maturing maize and haricot beans and by engaging in petty trading, wage labor, and motorcycle rentals together with livestock production. These strategies have helped reduce poverty [131]. Similarly, in South Omo and Segen regions, 25.42% of smallholder farmers have adopted livelihood diversification, combining it with agronomic practices to adapt to climate change [32].

Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Advisory Services: Activities to enhance adaptive capacity include supporting farmers in managing current and future climate risks through weather-linked value-added advisory services, such as seasonal climate forecasts. These services can help farmers make climate-sensitive decisions, such as seasonal forecast-based crop cultivar selection [39]. However, seasonal forecasts are not yet widely adopted in Ethiopia [133], largely because they often fail to reach smallholder farmers in a timely, accessible, and relevant format [134].

Many smallholder farmers also struggle with high costs of irrigation, fertilizers, and improved seeds, leading to low yields and food insecurity [135]. Limited availability of organic fertilizers due to competing uses further worsens the situation [136]. To address these challenges, supportive agricultural policies are needed to promote adaptation strategies and improve productivity [49]. The seasonal forecasts provided by the National Meteorological Agency, in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture’s extension services, have the potential to support informed decision-making among farmers particularly in predicting forage availability and selecting crop types that align with expected rainfall patterns [39]. Furthermore, integrating modern forecasting tools with indigenous knowledge systems can improve the accuracy and trustworthiness of weather and climate information for rural communities [137,138]. However, skepticism about forecast reliability and the use of complex or technical language continue to pose barriers to widespread adoption among smallholder farmers [134]. Ensuring that climate information is both accessible and comprehensible is therefore critical to enabling effective adaptation in the agricultural and livestock sectors.

By contrast, some neighboring East African countries have made more proactive efforts to ensure that seasonal forecasts reach smallholder farmers in usable formats. For example, in Kenya and Rwanda, mobile-based advisory services are increasingly being used to provide localized forecasts and practical, actionable advice tailored to farmers’ needs [139,140]. These initiatives demonstrate the importance of delivery systems that are timely, user-friendly, and grounded in both scientific and local knowledge. Accordingly, Ethiopia could benefit from adopting similar approaches to enhance the utilization of seasonal forecasts and improve climate resilience among its farming communities.

The interaction between climate change and livestock production remains under explored within CLIFOOD project research. While the project extensively examines climate impacts such as rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and increasing droughts and floods, its focus on livestock growth and development is limited compared to cereal crops. To address this gap, supplementary research from external databases was incorporated into the current study. Additionally, the CLIFOOD project primarily investigates ruminant feed quality, with minimal focus on non-ruminants. There is also a significant research gap concerning feed quantity and water availability, both of which are crucial as climate extremes intensify. Further research is needed to develop strategies for enhancing feed production and to deepen our understanding of livestock nutrition and metabolic processes to improve management practices and overall animal performance.

4. Conclusions, Policy Implications, and Future Research Directions

This study explored how climate change is currently and potentially impacting cereal crop production and livestock feed quality in Ethiopia to understand the effects on smallholder farmers and pastoralists, and to identify adaptation strategies that could mitigate these impacts. The evidence synthesized from CLIFOOD project research and supplementary studies confirms that climate change is already exerting considerable stress on Ethiopia’s agricultural systems. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, and extreme weather events are undermining crop yields, reducing forage quality, and worsening food and feed insecurity.

In response to research question (i), it is clear that climate change has significantly altered the productivity of major cereal crops and degraded livestock feed quality. Accelerated crop growth cycles, reduced soil moisture retention, and increased forage lignification are key mechanisms driving these impacts. Temperature increases of 0.3 to 0.66 °C per decade (observed) and projections of 0.6–0.8 °C per decade (especially in the northeast) foreshadow more severe consequences for crop and livestock systems unless adaptive measures are rapidly implemented.

Addressing research question (ii), it is evident that smallholder farmers face declining yields, increased production costs, and a higher risk of crop failure, while pastoralists contend with more frequent water shortages and degraded grazing lands. However, some areas may benefit from increased rainfall, presenting opportunities for pasture restoration in arid and semi-arid zones. These mixed impacts underscore the need for location-specific strategies that account for both vulnerabilities and opportunities.

Regarding research question (iii), we conclude that several practical and research-backed adaptation strategies have emerged. For crops, these include altering planting dates, promoting drought-tolerant varieties, integrating agroforestry and soil conservation techniques, and expanding supplementary irrigation. For livestock, key strategies include enhancing forage quality with legumes and native browse species, applying climate-resilient breeding approaches, and using seasonal forecasts for pasture management.

Policy recommendations to build agricultural resilience include the following:

• Expanding financial incentives (e.g., subsidies, grants) for climate-smart agriculture and resilient crop varieties;
• Strengthening early-warning climate systems by improving farmers’ access to real-time weather forecasts;
• Encouraging public–private partnerships in climate adaptation research;
• Developing policies that integrate indigenous knowledge with modern scientific climate solutions.

While this study offers a comprehensive synthesis of climate impacts and responses in Ethiopia’s agriculture, some limitations should be acknowledged. First, the reviewed studies rely on varying climate models and datasets, which may introduce inconsistencies in projections. Second, there may be publication bias favoring studies that report negative impacts. Addressing these limitations will require more standardized methodologies, longitudinal data collection, and inclusive participatory research that incorporates both scientific and local farmer knowledge. Future research should also explore the long-term socio-economic implications of adaptation strategies, particularly their scalability and sustainability across diverse agro-ecological zones.

Future Research Directions

To build a deeper and more actionable understanding of climate impacts on Ethiopia’s agriculture, future studies should focus on the following:

• Multi-Factor Climate Impact on Forage Quality: Conduct long-term field trials to assess the combined effects of elevated CO₂, heat stress, and rainfall variability on forage nutritional composition, digestibility, and secondary metabolite production. This will help predict future feed availability and quality under changing climatic conditions.
• Livestock Metabolic and Physiological Adaptations: Investigate the metabolic, hormonal, and physiological responses of different livestock species to climate-induced nutritional stress. This includes studying changes in energy metabolism, gut microbiome composition, immune function, and reproductive performance under varying climate scenarios.
• Development of Climate-Resilient Livestock Breeds: Explore genetic and cross-breeding strategies to develop livestock breeds that are more tolerant to heat stress, feed scarcity, and disease outbreaks. This research should integrate genomic selection, epigenetic studies, and adaptive trait mapping to enhance resilience in both indigenous and commercial breeds.
• Precision Livestock Farming for Climate Adaptation: Investigate the potential of smart farming technologies, including remote sensing, precision feeding, and automated health monitoring, to optimize livestock production in the face of climate change.

By clearly linking the findings to the research questions, acknowledging limitations, and setting a clear agenda for future research, this conclusion not only summarized the key findings but also contributes to shaping Ethiopia’s ongoing efforts in climate change adaptation and agricultural resilience.