Techno-Economic Sustainability Potential of Large-Scale Systems: Forecasting Intermodal Freight Transportation Volumes

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The study is very interesting. However, I have some suggestions:

1. There is a lot about sustainability on the literature review section, however on the discussion and results there not much about this perspective. I recommend adding intepretation of the results based on the sustainability concept.

2. The methodology section lacks references and explanations/justification to the selection of methods and procedures. I suggest including these aspects.

3. In the conclusion section, it would be interesting to present a comparison of the results obtained in your study in comparison with other papers.

4. I suggest organizing the methodology section and call it "materials and methods", generating sub-sections, one related to the data used and where they originate, and another focused on the specific methods and procedures applied, with references and justification on the selection to methods and procedures.

Author Response

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

Dear authors!

The subject of the study is intermodal transportation of goods in containers. I recommend reflecting this in the title of the article.

A literature review was performed on transportation modeling methods. At the same time, methods for achieving Techno-Economic sustainability of freight transport are not fully reflected. I recommend a more detailed analysis of existing freight forecasting methods

Empirical analysis is carried out for container transport. Data on container turnover in ports is provided. At the same time, the results of the presented analysis are not sufficiently disclosed.

I recommend reflecting the relevance of using methods for restoring incomplete series of time data.

In the Research Questions and Methods section, for the convenience of readers, I recommend displaying parameters in the Input Parameters/Decision Variables format. What parameters and indicators relate to Techno-Economic sustainability?

I recommend presenting the results of graphical dependencies in your work. The generalized results of the calculations performed can be indicated in the table. At the same time, based on the results of a study of methods for restoring incomplete rads of data, a conclusion is formulated about the relevance of using neuro-fuzzy modeling. However, the paper does not provide an overview of methods for forecasting freight traffic based on neural networks.

In conclusion, it is stated that the researched tools and methods were used in this work to analyze and model system states, predict processes and obtain more reliable results in conditions of incomplete information. I recommend concluding with a discussion of future research. How will the results of the work improve the Techno-Economic sustainability of freight transport?

Author Response

Comments 1: The subject of the study is intermodal transportation of goods in containers. I recommend reflecting this in the title of the article.

Response 1: Thank you very much for your comment. Yes, we have corrected the title of the manuscript. The title is now: Techno-Economic Sustainability Potential of Large-Scale Systems: Forecasting Intermodal Freight Transportation Volumes.

Comments 2: A literature review was performed on transportation modeling methods. At the same time, methods for achieving Techno-Economic sustainability of freight transport are not fully reflected. I recommend a more detailed analysis of existing freight forecasting methods

Response 2: Thank you very much for your comment. You are right. We planned to conduct a more detailed analysis of existing freight forecasting methods in the next studies.

Comments 3: In the Research Questions and Methods section, for the convenience of readers, I recommend displaying parameters in the Input Parameters/Decision Variables format. What parameters and indicators relate to Techno-Economic sustainability?

Response 3: Thank you very much for your comment. The study solved the scientific problem of technical and economic sustainability of large-scale systems on the basis of the formation of automated control technology of intermodal container transportation on the basis of the development of the procedure for selecting the optimal plan of multimodal transportation, aimed at maximizing the satisfaction of shippers' requirements by simultaneously taking into account in determining the route of such transportation parameters such as the cost of transportation and cargo delivery time.

Comments 4: I recommend presenting the results of graphical dependencies in your work. The generalized results of the calculations performed can be indicated in the table. At the same time, based on the results of a study of methods for restoring incomplete rads of data, a conclusion is formulated about the relevance of using neuro-fuzzy modeling. However, the paper does not provide an overview of methods for forecasting freight traffic based on neural networks.

In conclusion, it is stated that the researched tools and methods were used in this work to analyze and model system states, predict processes and obtain more reliable results in conditions of incomplete information. I recommend concluding with a discussion of future research. How will the results of the work improve the Techno-Economic sustainability of freight transport?

Response 4: Thank you very much for your comment. You are right. Due to the fact that forecasting of unstable and fuzzy processes is very unreliable and inefficient, fractal analysis was applied in this work. The resulting forecast error when using fractal analysis was more than 7% and did not satisfy the conditions of the problem. Therefore, it was decided that the forecasting of traffic volumes on the transport network should be performed using neuro-fuzzy modeling. Based on the analysis of the organization of intermodal transportation, it was found that these transportations have inertial nature and a large number of options for cargo delivery, which in turn can cause overloading of one or more modes of transport. Taking this into account, in future research a forecasting model will be developed according to neuro-fuzzy theory, which will make it possible to forecast the volume of cargo transportation.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

Dear Authors,

1. The paper contains wording i.e. ...we can optimize supply chains....

The impersonal form should be used in scientific papers. Please read the entire paper and make changes.

2. In the Introduction, the purpose of the research should be clearly defined. How it was implemented and what results were achieved. What is the novelty of the method proposed in this work.

3. Some information is irrelevant to the purpose of the research, such as listing the names of China's ports.

4. the authors write - The world's ten largest container ports handled 244 million TEUs in 2022, up 4.3% from 2021. are these ten largest container ports the ones mentioned above this paragraph? This should be clarified.

5. Please clearly dream how the information in Chapter Three is relevant to the purpose of the study.

6 Please explain why exactly the Authors presented container turnover in seaports of the Black Sea countries in Figure 3.

Reading the paper, it is not clear for what purpose this figure was placed in this study.

7. in one paragraph, the Authors made a conclusion that container turnover is stable, while in another paragraph it shows an upward trend?

8. In the paper, the authors refer to Table 2. Meanwhile, there is no Table 2 in the paper.

9. The authors make a number of calculations, but there is no commentary on the results obtained, so that the Reader does not quite know for what purpose the above calculations were made and how they should be interpreted, what they mean.

10 Chapter 6 should be rewritten. There are general conclusions about, among other things, the methods used. The summary should refer to the formulated purpose of the research. The explanation of what fractal analysis is, for example, should be explained beforehand, where the authors write that such a method was used in this research.

In conclusion, the paper should be rewritten to make it more understandable and readable. The authors, when writing about certain issues, must explain why such issues were raised in the paper, how they are related to the purpose of the presented research.

Also, the results of mathematical calculations should be explained and related to the purpose of the work. The summary is general and therefore should be completely revised. In the introduction, the authors raise the issue of sustainability. How the proposed method is expected to contribute to the formation of more sustainable development. Does it stand out from other methods used for this purpose?

Author Response

Comments 1: 1. The paper contains wording i.e. ...we can optimize supply chains....

The impersonal form should be used in scientific papers. Please read the entire paper and make changes.

Response 1: Thank you very much for your comment. We corrected the annotation in the manuscript. It now uses impersonal wording.

Comments 2: 2. In the Introduction, the purpose of the research should be clearly defined. How it was implemented and what results were achieved. What is the novelty of the method proposed in this work.

Response 2: Thank you very much for your comment. You are right. Due to the fact that forecasting of unstable and fuzzy processes is very unreliable and inefficient, fractal analysis was applied in this work. The resulting forecast error when using fractal analysis was more than 7% and did not satisfy the conditions of the problem. Therefore, it was decided that the forecasting of traffic volumes on the transport network should be performed using neuro-fuzzy modeling. Based on the analysis of the organization of intermodal transportation, it was found that these transportations have inertial nature and a large number of options for cargo delivery, which in turn can cause overloading of one or more modes of transport. Taking this into account, in future research a forecasting model will be developed according to neuro-fuzzy theory, which will make it possible to forecast the volume of cargo transportation.

Comments 3:

3. Some information is irrelevant to the purpose of the research, such as listing the names of China's ports.
4. the authors write - The world's ten largest container ports handled 244 million TEUs in 2022, up 4.3% from 2021. are these ten largest container ports the ones mentioned above this paragraph? This should be clarified.

Response 3: Thank you very much for carefully reading our manuscript. China's seaports were listed in this study because Seven of the world's ten largest container ports are located in China. The volume of containerized transportation worldwide has shown a steady upward trend over the past decades, which has been slightly affected even by events such as the global financial crisis of 2008. In the last five years, this growth is mainly due to the strong economic development of China and other Southeast Asian countries, as well as through manufacturing outsourcing to the same region.

Comments 4: 5. Please clearly dream how the information in Chapter Three is relevant to the purpose of the study.

Response 4: Thank you very much for your comment. The empirical analysis and research methods are presented in Section 3. The orientation of economic development in the market of transport services determines the development of cargo transportation with the participation of several modes of transport, which confirms the feasibility of intermodal transportation. The analysis of statistical data on the functioning of transport systems of the world and the role and importance of intermodal transportation in the realization of transport potential allowed us to conclude that intermodal transportation of goods is one of the most important transport components of global and national importance, contributing to the effective interaction of different transport systems in providing quality services of modern format.

Comments 5: 6 Please explain why exactly the Authors presented container turnover in seaports of the Black Sea countries in Figure 3.

Reading the paper, it is not clear for what purpose this figure was placed in this study.

Response 5: Thank you very much for your comment. Container turnover of the world's ports for the first quarter of 2022 increased by 5.8% year-on-year. In the first three months, the container turnover of Chinese ports grew by 7.3%. Traffic through the 18 largest ports in the U.S. and Canada, which account for more than 85% of the two countries' total cargo turnover, increased by 7.4%. Reorientation of cargo traffic from Asia to the ports of the east coast of North America continues. In the period from January to April, the share of west coast ports in the total container turnover of ports of the two countries decreased to 65.32 % against 66.8 % a year earlier, the share of the east coast increased last year from 30.44 % to 31.1 %, the Gulf Coast - from 2.43 % to 3.28 %. Figure 1 shows container turnover between ports in the Far East and other regions, billion tons. Figure 2 shows the container turnover of the world's largest ports, billion tons. Figure 3 shows the container turnover in the seaports of the Black Sea basin countries, mln. tons.

Comments 6: 7. in one paragraph, the Authors made a conclusion that container turnover is stable, while in another paragraph it shows an upward trend?

Response 6: Thank you so much for your comment. Figure 3 presents data on container turnover in seaports of the Black Sea basin countries, million tons. Container turnover has a stable character even despite the decrease in container turnover in 2009, already in 2010 container turnover reached the level of 2008, also the decrease was noted in 2015, already in 2016 container turnover reached the level of 2014.

Comments 7: 8. In the paper, the authors refer to Table 2. Meanwhile, there is no Table 2 in the paper.

Response 7: Thank you very much for your comment. Your comments helped us to make our manuscript better. We have corrected and removed the information about Table 2.

Comments 8: 9. The authors make a number of calculations, but there is no commentary on the results obtained, so that the Reader does not quite know for what purpose the above calculations were made and how they should be interpreted, what they mean.

Response 8: Thank you very much for your comment. To date, no single generally accepted system for assessing the quality of forecasting models has been created, even though the interest in the field of forecasting has been growing year by year. The problem of classification and quality assessment of forecasting models is especially acute in the financial sphere, exactly where most of the models that forecast time series are used. To assess the accuracy of forecast and quality of forecast models, indicators are used, which are calculated on the basis of actual and forecast data. Most of these indicators are various types of forecast errors.

The adequacy of the proposed neural network for forecasting the volume of cargo transportation is tested by using the forecast divergence coefficient. The forecast error does not exceed 4.86 %. This indicates a high accuracy of forecasting. Taking into account that intermodal cargo transportation is a rather inertial system, this indicator is sufficient for making managerial decisions. This, in turn, will allow, if necessary, to adjust the delivery route. The results of modeling will be expedient to take into account in the development of optimization mathematical model of intermodal freight transportation management.

Comments 9: 10 Chapter 6 should be rewritten. There are general conclusions about, among other things, the methods used. The summary should refer to the formulated purpose of the research. The explanation of what fractal analysis is, for example, should be explained beforehand, where the authors write that such a method was used in this research.

In conclusion, the paper should be rewritten to make it more understandable and readable. The authors, when writing about certain issues, must explain why such issues were raised in the paper, how they are related to the purpose of the presented research.

Also, the results of mathematical calculations should be explained and related to the purpose of the work. The summary is general and therefore should be completely revised. In the introduction, the authors raise the issue of sustainability. How the proposed method is expected to contribute to the formation of more sustainable development. Does it stand out from other methods used for this purpose?

Response 9: We thank you for taking the time to read our research. Your comments are very valuable to us. Yes, we agree with you. We have corrected the conclusion section.

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

The paper have been improved. 

Reviewer 2 Report

Accept in present form.

Reviewer 3 Report

;)