The Potential Impact of the European Green Deal on Farm Production in Poland

The proposed changes in the European Green Deal require the restructuring of the agricultural sector throughout the European Union. Particularly crucial for the agri-food industry are “From Farm to Fork” strategies and new legislation “for biodiversity,” which are an integral part of the European Green Deal. From an environmental perspective, changes are required immediately, but at the same time, they may reduce agricultural production in Poland. Therefore, this study aims to assess the potential consequences of implementing the European Green Deal principles on Polish agriculture’s productivity. The study is based on two key assumptions which involve a 50% reduction in the use of plant protection products and a 20% reduction in fertilisation. The conducted analyses rely on data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). The results were obtained by constructing a panel regression model for farms of different economic sizes. Although the most significant reduction in production value may concern the largest farms (using the most fertilisers and plant protection products), the smallest farms may experience the most critical difficulties. The potential decline in crop production in Polish agriculture could be stopped by implementing modern technologies enabling the development of precision and digital agriculture 4.0.