The Impact of Carbon Emissions Trading Pilots on the Low-Carbon Competitiveness of High-Carbon Industry-Listed Companies: An Empirical Analysis Based on Double Machine Learning

Carbon emissions trading pilots are an essential environmental regulation tool for incentivizing companies to reduce carbon emissions and a critical initiative for achieving “dual carbon” targets. This study, based on 2366 observations of 169 high-carbon listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2009 to 2022, uses double machine learning analysis to examine the impact and mechanisms of pilot policy on the low-carbon competitiveness of high-carbon industry-listed companies. The empirical results show that, first, pilot policy significantly enhances the low-carbon competitiveness of high-carbon industry-listed companies, and this conclusion holds after considering a series of robustness checks. Second, mechanism analysis indicates that alleviating green financing constraints and enhancing total factor productivity are pathways through which pilot policy influences low-carbon competitiveness. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effects are stronger for state-owned enterprises, small- and medium-sized enterprises, and companies in eastern regions. Further analysis reveals that pilot policy enhances low-carbon competitiveness and increase enterprise value. Based on the study’s conclusions, the government should ensure the incentivizing effect of pilot policy, promote expansion of the carbon emissions trading market, assist enterprises in overcoming green financing constraints, improve total factor productivity, and formulate tailored policies according to the development levels and resource endowments of regions and companies.