Flash Flood Risk Assessment Due to a Possible Dam Break in Urban Arid Environment, the New Um Al-Khair Dam Case Study, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Recent years have seen an increase in floods with severe damage due to the intensity and frequency of rains. One of the periodic hydrological problems affecting Jeddah city, the second-biggest city in Saudi Arabia, is unexpected flash flooding. In dam breaks, water that has been retained is released uncontrollably. This study is related to a flood simulation methodology after a possible break of the New Um Al-Khair Dam, a dam built in 2012 outside residential areas, to replace the Old Um Al-Khair Dam built inside a residential area, which broke in January 2011. In fact, we simulated the impact on flood wave propagation in the study area through the use of GIS techniques coupled with hydrological/hydraulic modeling tools and the development of a flood inundation model. Planning a good emergency response in the future is possible by analyzing a supposed disaster. Based on the likelihood that there will be a flood and the corresponding inundation depth, a flood risk matrix is created as a quantitative tool to estimate flood damage, which is crucial to decision-makers. Negligible, low, moderate, high, and very high-risk categories are assigned according to that flood risk matrix. The results indicated a low to very high risk for 5 years, 50 years and 100 years return periods and a negligible to very high risk for a 200 years return period. To estimate the extent of damage, a quantitative summary of the results has been outlined graphically in order to visualize the scope of the inundation areas.