1. Introduction
Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), driven by economic globalisation, has grown significantly since the 1980s. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) data show that the global OFDI stock in 2018 reached USD 31.51 trillion [
1], an increase of 53.96% from 2010. The OFDI of developed countries in 2018 increased by 38.01% compared with 2010, reaching USD 23.57 trillion [
1]. In transition and developing countries, OFDI grew more rapidly than in developed countries, with an increase of 134.38% between 2010 and 2018, reaching USD 7.94 trillion [
1]. However, in recent years, the rise of anti-globalisation and protectionism has challenged the sustainable development of OFDI. From 2017 to 2018, global OFDI stock decreased by 4.64%. OFDI plays a role in transnational resource allocation, and it is beneficial to utilise comparative advantages of host countries [
2,
3]. In the current complex and volatile international environment, maintaining the sustainable development of OFDI is very important to the economic recovery and growth of all countries. The detailed amount of OFDI stock in the world and in countries at different levels of development from 2010 to 2018 are shown in
Figure 1.
The investment development path (IDP) describes a country’s development process from foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow to investment abroad [
4,
5,
6]. Nevertheless, the deep influence mechanism of FDI on OFDI has not been clarified. The FDI spillover theory assumes that FDI provides channels for local firms to acquire technology and knowledge [
7,
8]. FDI can generate these spillover effects on local firms through four spillover mechanisms: the demonstration effect, industry linkages, employee training, and the competition effect [
7,
9]. The spillover effects of FDI enhance the competitive advantages of local firms, thus improving their ability to invest abroad. The influence of FDI on OFDI has attracted the attention of many scholars, and most studies use a country’s time-series data or provincial panel data [
8,
10,
11]. However, few studies have explored the influence of FDI on OFDI using multi-country panel data.
The IDP mainly focuses on the relationship between FDI and OFDI, neglecting the influence of labour mobility. Globalisation has significantly increased labour mobility while accelerating international capital flow [
12]. The assumption in traditional international trade theory that labour is immobile across national borders is no longer applicable in today’s world economy [
13]. A significant increase in international migrants has been one of the main manifestations of globalisation [
14]. According to the United Nations’ data, the number of international migrants increased from 221 million in 2010 to 272 million in 2019, a 23.04% increase. Emigration may directly cause a brain drain and reduce the capacity of emigrants’ home countries to generate OFDI. Even so, emigrants can gain advanced skills and learn up-to-date technologies in more advanced countries. Moreover, in the right environment, the knowledge acquired by emigrants abroad can flow back to and be utilised within their home countries [
15,
16]. However, existing research on the relationship between migration and OFDI has mainly focused on the influence of diaspora networks on the latter [
17,
18,
19] and on how migration affects OFDI in host countries [
20,
21,
22]. In contrast, few studies have considered the influence of migration on the OFDI of migrants’ countries of origin.
Intellectual property rights (IPR) protection creates a good investment and innovation environment, which not only enhances the spillover effects of FDI and the absorptive capacity of local firms [
23] but also facilitates the flow of knowledge acquired by emigrants back to their home countries [
15,
16]. However, most prior studies have focused on the relationship between host country IPR protection and OFDI and the factors that influence the relationship between the two [
24,
25,
26,
27]. Moreover, only a few studies have focused on the influence of home-country IPR protection on OFDI [
28]. However, these studies have not explored the influence of home-country IPR protection on the relationship between FDI and OFDI or the influence of home-country IPR protection on the relationship between migration and OFDI.
We use the panel data of 85 countries from 2006 to 2018 to address the following research questions: Do FDI and migration influence OFDI? Does IPR protection influence the relationship between FDI and OFDI? Does IPR protection influence the relationship between migration and OFDI? The answers to these questions are critical to the sustainable development of OFDI.
This study makes three contributions to the existing literature. First, we examine the moderating effect of IPR protection on the relationship between FDI and OFDI, extending the literature on the FDI—OFDI connection. Most of the existing literature focuses only on the influence of FDI on OFDI and does not consider the influence of other variables on that relationship [
8,
10]. Although Chen et al. [
11] studied the influence of economic development level, corruption degree, and trade openness on the relationship between FDI and OFDI, they neglected the influence of IPR protection. Second, we examine the moderating effect of IPR protection on the relationship between migration and OFDI, enriching the literature on the influence of human mobility on OFDI. The existing literature mainly focuses on analysing the influence of overseas students and migration on OFDI [
13,
22,
29], ignoring the influence of IPR protection on the relationship between migration and OFDI. Third, we contribute to the literature by using multi-country panel data at the global level, making our conclusions more widely applicable. Prior research mainly focuses on specific countries [
8,
10,
11,
13] or industries [
30].
The rest of this paper is organised as follows.
Section 2 reviews the relevant literature. In
Section 3, four hypotheses are developed for empirical testing. In
Section 4, the regression model specification is described, key variables are defined, and the measurement methods and data sources of the main variables are explained.
Section 5 reports the empirical results and conducts robustness checks. Finally, in
Section 6, the findings are summarised, theoretical and practical implications are outlined, and the limitations are presented.
2. Literature Review
Dunning constructed the IDP by extending the eclectic paradigm from the firm level to the country level [
4,
5,
6]. The IDP studies the relationship between economic development and net investment position. This theory postulates that, with the improvement of a country’s economic development level, its net investment position will gradually change from a negative to a positive value, eventually fluctuating around zero. Although the IDP simultaneously incorporates FDI and OFDI into its framework, that framework only describes the development process of a country from FDI inflow to investment abroad without paying attention to the influence of FDI on OFDI. Most extant studies have found that FDI positively affects OFDI [
8,
31,
32,
33]. However, Liu et al. [
10], using China’s time-series data, found that the influence of FDI on OFDI is not statistically significant, suggesting that the decision by Chinese firms to invest abroad derives from the need for international expansion rather than ownership advantages. Research on China’s 10 major industries shows that FDI negatively affects OFDI [
34]. Other studies have found that the influence of FDI on OFDI is associated with its entry mode. The FDI that enters as a joint venture positively affects OFDI, whereas the FDI that enters as a standalone investment affects it negatively [
30]. Chen et al. [
11] argued that the relationship between FDI and OFDI is influenced by factors such as the economic development level, degree of corruption, and trade openness.
With the development of globalisation, the influence of human mobility on OFDI has also attracted the attention of scholars. Gao et al. [
13] incorporated human mobility into the IDP framework, using China’s time-series data to find that the two-way mobility of highly skilled Chinese students and scholars promotes Chinese OFDI. Chen et al. [
29] also found that international students positively affect Chinese OFDI. In addition, studies of migration show that it has a positive effect on the OFDI from migrants’ host countries to their countries of origin [
20,
21,
22]. Other studies have considered whether the relationship between migration and OFDI might depend on migrants’ education levels, their skill levels or their occupations [
35,
36,
37].
The institutional environment of the home country is crucial for OFDI. Extant studies have found that the institutional development level [
38,
39], institutional reform [
31], and IPR protection [
28] have a positive effect on OFDI. However, institutional escapism argues that the institutional fragility of the home country may prompt enterprises to escape from their home countries as a strategic countermeasure [
40], and thus promote OFDI. Therefore, some studies have found that the home country’s poor business environment [
41], protectionism, and prevailing corruption [
32] positively affect OFDI.
Prior literature has conducted extensive studies on the determinants of OFDI. Among these, the influences of FDI, migration, and IPR protection have all received attention. However, few studies have incorporated FDI, migration, and IPR protection into a framework that focuses on the influence of IPR protection on the relationship between FDI and OFDI and on the influence of IPR protection on the relationship between migration and OFDI. Therefore, this study examines the influences of FDI and migration on OFDI from the perspective of IPR protection. This study also provides theoretical support and policy implications that can assist policymakers in formulating IPR protection policies and ensuring that FDI and migration play positive roles in the sustainable development of OFDI.
6. Conclusions and Implications
6.1. Conclusions
In the context of globalisation, a country can utilise international resources to serve its own economic interests through OFDI. At the same time, OFDI is also an important manifestation of a country’s international competitiveness. Building on the IDP framework, this paper uses a panel dataset of 85 countries between 2006 and 2018 to examine the influence of FDI and migration on the sustainable development of OFDI, the moderating effect of IPR protection on the relationship between FDI and OFDI, and the relationship between migration and OFDI. Countries were divided into three groups: high-income countries, upper-middle-income countries, and lower-middle- and low-income countries, and the influence of heterogeneous economic development levels on the empirical results was explored. The key findings of this paper are as follows:
First, from a worldwide perspective, there is a development path through which a country can strengthen its capacity to invest abroad by attracting FDI. Moreover, strengthening IPR protection enhances the spillover effects of FDI and the absorptive capacity of local firms, thus enhancing the positive effect of FDI on OFDI. In addition, emigration directly causes brain drain in migrants’ home countries and has a negative effect on OFDI, and strengthening IPR protection cannot significantly reduce the negative effect of that brain drain.
Second, the study on countries with different income levels shows that in high-income countries, FDI has a positive effect on OFDI, and the stronger the IPR protection, the greater the positive effect of FDI on OFDI. For upper-middle-income countries, FDI has a positive effect on OFDI, but the stronger the IPR protection, the weaker the positive effect of FDI on OFDI. For lower-middle- and low-income countries, the influence of FDI on OFDI is insignificant. Moreover, the influence of migration on OFDI is not significant in high- and upper-middle-income countries. For lower-middle- and low-income countries, migration has a negative effect on OFDI, and the stronger the IPR protection, the weaker the negative effect of migration on OFDI.
Third, factors such as the level of economic development, investment in R&D, exchange rate, market size, and trade openness of a country have a positive effect on its OFDI.
6.2. Implications
This study provides some important implications for policymakers. First, they should create a good market and legal environment for foreign enterprises to attract more and higher-quality FDI. Through the introduction of FDI to utilize international resources, a situation of coordinated development of FDI and OFDI is gradually formed. Specifically, policymakers can take measures to enable government departments to simplify procedures, enhance efficiency and improve services to facilitate foreign investment. Policymakers should also improve the foreign investment law to attract investment from foreign firms with advanced technology and management capabilities. Moreover, policymakers should not only ensure equal protection of IPR of foreign firms, but also strengthen IPR protection by improving laws and regulations on IPR and increasing the crackdown on IPR infringements to enhance the spillover effects of FDI and the absorptive capacity of local firms. This is critical to the accumulation of competitive advantages by local firms and the enhancement of OFDI.
Second, although migration has a negative effect on OFDI, emigrants can gain advanced knowledge and obtain international experience overseas. Therefore, policymakers should take measures to attract emigrants back to their home country. Specifically, policymakers can transform the brain drain into a brain gain and improve the ability of OFDI by introducing preferential tax policies for talents, providing salary subsidies, creating suitable job opportunities, increasing investment in education and R&D, building efficient and transparent service-oriented government, and creating a good environment for innovation activities.
Third, policymakers should formulate differentiated IPR protection policies according to their country’s stage of economic development. High-income countries can implement stricter IPR protection, strengthening the positive effect of FDI on OFDI. However, strict IPR protection in upper-middle-income countries weakens the positive effect of FDI on OFDI. Therefore, these countries should adopt IPR protection policies that are in line with their actual conditions. The strength of IPR protection should be appropriate, and IPR protection should gradually be strengthened with the development of economic and technological capabilities. Lower-middle- and low-income countries should strengthen IPR protection by perfecting laws on IPR and enhancing law enforcement so that the knowledge acquired by emigrants abroad can flow back to their home countries and be utilised therein, which improves the competitive advantage of local firms and enhances their ability to invest abroad.