Application of a Novel Optimized Fractional Grey Holt-Winters Model in Energy Forecasting

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The review of the manuscript sustainability-1621794 of authors Weijie Zhou , Huihui Tao * , Huimin Jiang

Paper presents the new optimized fractional gray Holt-Winters model (NOFGHW) is proposed to improve the identification of the model by integrating the processing methods of the two characteristics. So the topic of the manuscript is actual. Research in this area is desirable. It suites to journal scope. 

Section 1 introduction is written in a good manner. The literature is discussed. The novelty of the paper is indicated. However in literature do not discuss any paper from 2022 year. Thus as Recomendaition #1 please discuss at least 2 rerefernces from 2022 year.

Section 2 Methods. For section 2.1 A New optimized fractional grey Holt-Winters model (NOFGHW) and 2.2 Parameter optimization of NOFGHW model You use a lot of equations. But the symbols in equations are not introduced. So I suggest adding the list of symbols, constraints, variables at the end of manuscript (recommendation #2)

Section 3. Application is clear and well written. I have no recommendation to extend it.

Section 4 conclusion also need the revision. There is a lack of future research directions. So please add a separate paragraph with them (recommendation #3)

Also, formatting of the paper requires revision, as well as adding additional elements like founding, author contribution, data statement etc. (recommendation 4).

Author Response

Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

The article is an interesting presentation of new model proposition of energy forecasting. The authors quite clearly introduced their model. The advantages of the article is the comparison the new model to other five most popular model of energy forecasting. However I have also some doubt about the article.

Firstly there is not much about the justification of the topic in the sustainable development context. Please, explain more, why searching for new solutions in energy forecasting is important, especially from the sustainable development goals perspective. And why your article is suitable for Sustainability journal.

Why authors searched only literature base of Elsevier when most common is to search Scopus or WoS.?

I have the suggestion to modify the title of the article to "Application of a novel optimized fractional grey Holt-Winters model in energy forecasting", as the "energy forecasting" term is used for price and demand predictions. Otherwise authors should add the "energy demand prediction".

Thera are also some unusual phrases in language of the article. It is not common to use "scholars" talking about what is already done in the science. Please don't use "our country".

Author Response

Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

Excellent article. The problem of energy prediction is a reality worldwide and deserves more and more attention. Work like this is significant for the development in this area. However, I have some doubts and suggestions:

1 - The introduction section is well structured, and it brings a lot of content and a basis for this research. But I think it is too long, and it could be divided into a few subsections to make it easier to read.

2 - The article talks a lot about energy, and to validate the model, crude oil output and industrial electricity consumption data were used. Can this model be used for energy, such as photovoltaic, biogas, wind, electricity?

3 - The conclusion brings the contributions of the new model. It could be improved by getting some additional elements, for example. What is the financial gain of applying the NOFGHW model instead of a traditional model? I think it would be interesting to monetize these gains to show the relevance of the new model for managers who do not have much specific knowledge.

Author Response

Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

Dear Authors

I recommend publishing this article in present form.

Best regards,

Author Response

Thank you very much for your approval of our article.