Injury Severity Analysis of Rear-End Crashes at Signalized Intersections
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Data Preparation
4. Research Methodology
5. Empirical Analysis
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
7. Study Limitations and Future Research
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Categorical Variables | |||
---|---|---|---|
Response | Count | Percent | |
No injury (property damage only, PDO, or O) | 2433 | 77.1 | |
Possible injury or suspected minor injury (BC) | 703 | 22.3 | |
Fatal injury or suspected serious injury (KA) | 20 | 0.6 | |
Roadway and Environmental Characteristics | |||
Type: four legs or more (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 2732 | 86.6 | |
Location: urban (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 3063 | 97.1 | |
Grade: uphill (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 61 | 1.9 | |
Grade: downhill (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 194 | 6.1 | |
Lighting: non-daylight (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 540 | 17.1 | |
Road condition: non-dry surface (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 871 | 27.6 | |
Adverse weather (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 578 | 18.3 | |
Crash Characteristics | |||
Weekend crash (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 1079 | 34.2 | |
Hit-and-run crash (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 210 | 6.7 | |
Motorcycle involvement (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 35 | 1.1 | |
Improper or non-use of safety restraints (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 457 | 14.5 | |
Vehicle 1: large (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 50 | 1.6 | |
Vehicle 2: large (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 53 | 1.7 | |
Driver’s Characteristics | |||
Driver 1: female (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 1296 | 41.1 | |
Driver 1: not normal condition (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 180 | 5.7 | |
Driver 2: female (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 1441 | 45.7 | |
Driver 2: not normal condition (1 if yes or 0 otherwise) | 49 | 1.6 | |
Continuous Variable | |||
Mean | Minimum | Maximum | |
Pavement friction | 39.0 | 19 | 66 |
Driver 1’s age | 36.8 | 10 | 102 |
Driver 2’s age | 39.7 | 14 | 102 |
Parameter | Estimate | Standard Error | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|
Constant | −1.131 | 0.070 | <0.001 |
Motorcycle involvement | 0.700 | 0.204 | 0.001 |
Improper or non-use of safety restraints | 0.378 | 0.067 | <0.001 |
Non-dry road surface | −0.178 | 0.057 | 0.002 |
Driver 1: not normal condition | 0.472 | 0.097 | <0.001 |
Driver 2’s age | 0.006 | 0.001 | <0.001 |
Driver 2: female | 0.178 | 0.050 | <0.001 |
Driver 2: not normal condition | 0.439 | 0.177 | 0.013 |
ψ | 1.830 | 0.083 | <0.001 |
Model Fit Summary | |||
Log–likelihood | −1727 | ||
Log–likelihood of constant-only model | −1790 | ||
Log–likelihood ratio χ2 | 126 | ||
Degrees of freedom | 7 | ||
p-Value | <0.001 |
Parameter | Estimate | Standard Error | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|
Constant | −1.195 | 0.170 | <0.001 |
Motorcycle involvement | 0.869 | 0.293 | 0.003 |
Improper or non-use of safety restraints | 0.481 | 0.120 | <0.001 |
Non-dry road surface | −0.227 | 0.083 | 0.006 |
Driver 1: not normal condition | 0.585 | 0.158 | <0.001 |
Driver 2′s age | 0.007 | 0.002 | <0.001 |
Driver 2: female | 0.216 | 0.072 | 0.003 |
Driver 2: not normal condition | 0.557 | 0.251 | 0.026 |
Mean pavement surface friction * | −0.006 | 0.008 | 0.487 |
Standard deviation of the random parameter | 0.020 | 0.010 | 0.050 |
ψ | 2.346 | 0.471 | <0.001 |
Model Fit Summary | |||
Log–likelihood | −1725 | ||
Log–likelihood of constant-only model | −1790 | ||
Log–likelihood ratio χ2 | 130 | ||
Degrees of freedom | 9 | ||
p-Value | <0.001 |
Variable | Marginal Effects (%) | ||
---|---|---|---|
ΔP(y = O) | ΔP(y = BC) | ΔP(y = KA) | |
Motorcycle involvement | −26.87 | 26.44 | 0.44 |
Improper or non-use of safety restraints | −12.92 | 12.81 | 0.11 |
Non-dry road surface | 4.21 | −4.19 | −0.02 |
Driver 1: not normal condition | −16.42 | 16.25 | 0.17 |
Driver 2’s age | −8.52 | 8.47 | 0.05 |
Driver 2: female | −5.12 | 5.09 | 0.03 |
Driver 2: not normal condition | −15.45 | 15.30 | 0.15 |
Mean pavement friction | 2.53 | −2.52 | −0.01 |
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Sharafeldin, M.; Farid, A.; Ksaibati, K. Injury Severity Analysis of Rear-End Crashes at Signalized Intersections. Sustainability 2022, 14, 13858. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142113858
Sharafeldin M, Farid A, Ksaibati K. Injury Severity Analysis of Rear-End Crashes at Signalized Intersections. Sustainability. 2022; 14(21):13858. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142113858
Chicago/Turabian StyleSharafeldin, Mostafa, Ahmed Farid, and Khaled Ksaibati. 2022. "Injury Severity Analysis of Rear-End Crashes at Signalized Intersections" Sustainability 14, no. 21: 13858. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142113858