Measurement and Prediction of Coupling Coordination Level of Economic Development, Social Stability and Ecological Environment in Qinghai—Thoughts on Sustainable Societal Safety
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Sustainable Societal Safety
3. Research Scheme and Data Source
3.1. The Study Area
3.2. Index System Construction
3.3. Research Methods
3.3.1. Entropy Method and Comprehensive Index Method
3.3.2. Coupling Coordination Model
3.3.3. GM(1.1) Grey Model
3.4. Data Sources and Processing
4. Results
4.1. Evaluation Results of ED, SS, and EE
4.2. Spatio-Temporal Differentiation of Coupling Coordination Level of ED, SS, and EE System
4.3. Prediction of Coupling and Coordinated Development of ED, SS, and EE Sistem
5. Discussion
5.1. Evaluation Method of SSS Based on System Structure Coupling Coordination
5.2. Areas and Directions for Future Research
6. Conclusions
6.1. Main Conclusions
- (1)
- The economy is developing rapidly, and regional development is extremely uneven. Xining and Haixi have a high level of development, Haidong and Hainan are above average, Haibei and Huangnan are below average, and Guoluo and Yushu are lagging behind. There is a positive correlation between SS and ED, but it lags behind ED and slowly improves. With the continuous promotion of ED, the SS index of Xining and Haixi is at a high level. Because the local government has little investment in social security and employment, the SS index of Hainan is low, and the rest of the regions are in the middle. The EE continues to improve, and the spatial pattern is relatively stable. The low-value areas are mainly distributed in Xining, Haidong, and Haixi. The eco-environmental indexes of Huangnan, Guoluo, and Yushu have been kept at a high level, and the eco-environmental indexes of Hainan and Haibei are in the middle reaches.
- (2)
- The coupling degree is fluctuating and rising, belonging to a high-level coupling state, which shows that ED, SS, and EE are closely related and influence each other. The degree of coordination is also on the rise, with obvious regional differences. Haidong and Haixi have risen from severe maladjustment to near maladjustment, Xining and Huangnan have risen from moderate maladjustment to a barely coordinated state, and other areas have risen from moderate maladjustment to near maladjustment.
- (3)
- In the future, the coupling and coordination levels of ED, SS, and EE will continue the existing development trend, and different regions will be upgraded from the level of being on the verge of imbalance and barely coordinated to the level of intermediate coordination, good coordination, and even high-quality coordination. Xining has been upgraded from reluctant coordination to high-quality coordination. Haidong, Haixi, and Huangnan have been greatly improved from being on the verge of maladjustment to a well-coordinated level. The coupling and coordinated development of Haibei, Guoluo, and Yushu will tend to be gentle, from the brink of imbalance to the intermediate level of coordination.
6.2. Policy Enlightenment
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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System Name | Observation Dimension | Evaluating Indicator | Unit | Attribute | Refer to |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ED System (U1) | Economic benefits | Per capita GDP | Yuan | + | [14] |
Urbanization rate | % | + | [44] | ||
Economic structure | Proportion of tertiary industry | % | + | [40] | |
Output value of secondary industry/output value of tertiary industry | % | + | [38] | ||
Total annual tourism revenue | % | + | [45] | ||
Economic Openness | Total postal business | Ten thousand yuan | + | [43] | |
Total social consumer goods | One hundred million yuan | + | [38] | ||
Highway mileage | kilometres | + | [45] | ||
SS system (U2) | Social coordination | Investigate urban unemployment rate | % | − | [44] |
Rural Engel coefficient | % | − | [42] | ||
Per capita income ratio between urban and rural areas | / | − | [43] | ||
Social governance | Social security and employment expenditure | % | + | [44] | |
Public management of fixed assets investment | One hundred million yuan | + | [42] | ||
Social security | Per capita disposable income | Yuan | + | [41] | |
Per capita living expenditure | Yuan | + | [42] | ||
EE system (U3) | Ecological pressure | Industrial wastewater discharge | Ten thousand tons | − | [44] |
Industrial smoke (powder) dust emission | Tons | − | [38] | ||
Output of industrial solid waste | Ten thousand tons | − | [39] | ||
Ecological state | Forest coverage rate | % | + | [45] | |
NDVI | / | + | [46] | ||
Excellent rate of air quality | % | + | [38] | ||
Ecological protection | Proportion of environmental investment in GDP | % | + | [39] | |
Industrial waste utilization rate | % | + | [44] |
Stage | Range | Coordination States | Range |
---|---|---|---|
Stage of disorder | 0 ≤ D < 0.4 | Serious imbalance | (0, 0.1) |
Severe disorders | (0.1, 0.2) | ||
Moderate disorders | (0.2, 0.3) | ||
Mild disorder | (0.3, 0.4) | ||
Stage of transition | 0.4 ≤ D < 0.6 | On the verge of disorder | (0.4, 0.5) |
Barely coordination | (0.5, 0.6) | ||
Primary coordination | (0.6, 0.7) | ||
Stage of coordinated development | 0.6 ≤ D < 1 | Intermediate coordinate | (0.7, 0.8) |
Good coordination | (0.8, 0.9) | ||
Perfect coordination | (0.9, 1) |
Xining | Haidong | Haixi | Hainan | Haibei | Huangnan | Guoluo | Yushu | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.2108 | 0.1912 | 0.2079 | 0.1896 | 0.1662 | 0.1529 | 0.1228 | 0.1280 |
2 | 0.1384 | 0.1287 | 0.1377 | 0.1256 | 0.1299 | 0.1304 | 0.1267 | 0.1207 |
3 | 0.0875 | 0.0913 | 0.0763 | 0.1028 | 0.1174 | 0.1230 | 0.1350 | 0.1271 |
0.3466 | 0.3379 | 0.3342 | 0.3380 | 0.3531 | 0.3508 | 0.3456 | 0.3418 | |
Coordination degree | Mild disorder | Mild disorder | Mild disorder | Mild disorder | Mild disorder | Mild disorder | Mild disorder | Mild disorder |
Characteristic | Economy too ahead, ecology seriously lagging behind | Economy too ahead, ecology seriously lagging behind | Economy too ahead, ecology seriously lagging behind | Economy ahead, ecology lagging behind | Economy ahead, ecology lagging behind | Economic ahead, basic coordination between society and ecology | Ecological ahead, basic coordination between economy and society | Society lags behind, basic coordination between economy and ecology |
Original Value | Predicted Value | Residual | Relative Error | Grade Deviation | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | 0.218 | 0.218 | 0 | 0.000% | - |
2012 | 0.253 | 0.255 | −0.001 | 0.765% | 0.061 |
2013 | 0.278 | 0.278 | 0 | 0.094% | 0.008 |
2014 | 0.302 | 0.303 | −0.001 | 0.191% | −0.003 |
2015 | 0.328 | 0.330 | 0.002 | 0.500% | −0.003 |
2016 | 0.353 | 0.359 | −0.006 | 1.734% | −0.012 |
2017 | 0.387 | 0.391 | −0.004 | 1.096% | 0.006 |
2018 | 0.448 | 0.426 | 0.022 | 4.859% | 0.059 |
2019 | 0.474 | 0.464 | 0.01 | 2.035% | −0.03 |
2020 | 0.490 | 0.506 | −0.016 | 3.241% | −0.054 |
λ ∈ [0.862, 0.967], C = 0.0109 ≤ 0.35, p = 1.000 ≤ 1.0, RMSE = 0.010 |
Xining | Haidong | Haixi | Hainan | Haibei | Huangnan | Guoluo | Yushu | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 0.592 | 0.581 | 0.587 | 0.562 | 0.551 | 0.565 | 0.534 | 0.541 |
2022 | 0.658 | 0.645 | 0.654 | 0.617 | 0.600 | 0.619 | 0.580 | 0.591 |
2023 | 0.730 | 0.715 | 0.730 | 0.677 | 0.654 | 0.678 | 0.631 | 0.645 |
2024 | 0.811 | 0.793 | 0.814 | 0.743 | 0.713 | 0.743 | 0.685 | 0.705 |
2025 | 0.900 | 0.880 | 0.846 | 0.815 | 0.776 | 0.814 | 0.745 | 0.770 |
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Ye, S.; Ge, Y.; Xu, S.; Ma, X. Measurement and Prediction of Coupling Coordination Level of Economic Development, Social Stability and Ecological Environment in Qinghai—Thoughts on Sustainable Societal Safety. Sustainability 2022, 14, 10515. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710515
Ye S, Ge Y, Xu S, Ma X. Measurement and Prediction of Coupling Coordination Level of Economic Development, Social Stability and Ecological Environment in Qinghai—Thoughts on Sustainable Societal Safety. Sustainability. 2022; 14(17):10515. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710515
Chicago/Turabian StyleYe, Shuai, Yuejing Ge, Shiyu Xu, and Xiaofan Ma. 2022. "Measurement and Prediction of Coupling Coordination Level of Economic Development, Social Stability and Ecological Environment in Qinghai—Thoughts on Sustainable Societal Safety" Sustainability 14, no. 17: 10515. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710515
APA StyleYe, S., Ge, Y., Xu, S., & Ma, X. (2022). Measurement and Prediction of Coupling Coordination Level of Economic Development, Social Stability and Ecological Environment in Qinghai—Thoughts on Sustainable Societal Safety. Sustainability, 14(17), 10515. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710515