# System Dynamics Approach to TALC Modeling

^{1}

^{2}

^{*}

## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

## 2. Tourist Destination as a Complex System—Theoretical Background

## 3. Tourist Destination Life Cycle Behavior from the System Dynamics Perspective

## 4. The TALC Model Development Based on Causal Loop Diagram

_{0}is the argument of sigmoid ‘midpoint’, k is the logistic growth rate or steepness of the curve. To align with previous research in this area, f(x), which in this research represents the actual number of visitors, will be denoted by V; L is the maximum value of the number of visitors and will be denoted by M, while the variable x will represent time and will be denoted by t. Based on this, the logistic TALC function has the following form (2)

_{1}is the number of visitors in time t

_{1}; t

_{1}is the starting point and t

_{2}is the ending point of the observed period, k is the coefficient of the information spread-out rate about a destination, and M is a maximum number of the potential visitors (arrivals).

## 5. Results

#### 5.1. The TALC Model Verification

- The supply-dominance stage;
- The demand-dominance stage;
- The restructuring stage.

#### 5.2. Generic Structures of the TALC Model Behavior

#### 5.3. The TALC System Dynamics Model in Powersim Studio

- State variables—which accumulate change. It takes one moment to read them. These variables remember values and are denoted by the rectangle symbol (in Figure 9, these are k, M, SumSTDError and V-simulation Data).
- Rate variables—which indicate change, i.e., speed (first-order derivative). It takes two time moments to calculate their values. They are marked with a picture of the valve and flow. A bubble at the beginning or end indicates the source and abyss of the stream. Input or output presents a parameter for state variables. In Figure 9, these are Growth k, Growth M, Growth V, STDError.
- Auxiliary variables—which are used to clarify calculations and flow within the model. Linking them to/from rate variables enables a partial calculus. Constants are permanent identifiers throughout the simulation period. They are denoted by a rhombus (in Figure 9, k-rate, M-rate, M0, id-LAU-whose value in the model is selected based on the radio-button and the variable).

#### 5.4. Scenario Analysis Based on the TALC System Dynamics Model

- V-simulation data (red graph)—representing the number of arrivals per year, representing the trend of the observed period;
- V-Official Data (light green graph)—representing the number of arrivals per year, based on the interpolated data;
- Maximum expected number of visitors (M) (blue graph) equals total supply.

- Growth of V (dark green graph)—the first-order derivative of the V-simulation function;
- Derivative2 (red graph)—the second-order derivative of the V-simulation function;
- Derivative2 sign (blue graph)—a sign of the second-order derivative indicating moment when a destination passes from one stage to another;
- t-asix (light green graph)—drawn to enable monitoring of the first and second-order derivative functions flow.

## 6. Discussion and Conclusive Remarks

- To reduce the number of arrivals;
- To remain in the steady-state (the same number of arrivals each year), or
- To initiate a new lifecycle by introducing innovative and sustainable tourism products to enhance offer (M) and to rejuvenate destination.

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Institutional Review Board Statement

## Informed Consent Statement

## Data Availability Statement

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 6.**Pattern of behavior and graphs of the first and second order derivative of the TALC logistic curve.

**Table 1.**Data on arrivals along the LAUs and LLs in the period from 2007–2019. Source: [51].

2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

BE 23-TOTAL | 40,727 | 51,614 | 47,882 | 46,696 | 49,077 | 55,170 | 56,907 | 75,382 | 74,473 | 71,756 | 80,759 | 88,008 | 96,358 |

Bornem | 12,020 | 12,105 | 11,889 | 12,146 | 12,543 | 12,325 | 12,003 | 13,315 | 13,700 | 13,356 | 13,876 | 13,601 | 15,660 |

Pu.-Si.-Am. | 2638 | 2996 | 3354 | 3713 | 4071 | 4429 | 4787 | 5442 | 5395 | 6144 | 5276 | 6570 | 7418 |

Aalst | 18,759 | 28,618 | 25,143 | 23,230 | 25,405 | 29,688 | 31,119 | 48,224 | 47,814 | 44,537 | 52,851 | 58,623 | 62,628 |

Berlare | 2838 | 2839 | 2487 | 2797 | 2606 | 3151 | 2482 | 2100 | 2862 | 2732 | 2921 | 3109 | 4020 |

Dendermonde | 4472 | 5056 | 5009 | 4810 | 4452 | 5577 | 6516 | 6301 | 4702 | 4987 | 5835 | 6105 | 6632 |

ES 24-TOTAL | 267,090 | 297,506 | 261,463 | 280,208 | 271,409 | 247,693 | 276,771 | 288,902 | 329,622 | 381,897 | 387,165 | 407,220 | 400,611 |

Ainsa | 3439 | 6356 | 9273 | 12,190 | 15,107 | 18,024 | 19,426 | 26,888 | 25,260 | 29,692 | 32,609 | 55,503 | 35,258 |

Benasque | 70,753 | 68,201 | 63,243 | 72,698 | 67,585 | 49,759 | 56,079 | 57,041 | 59,285 | 71,142 | 81,818 | 78,271 | 79,695 |

Huesca | 77,565 | 92,458 | 71,568 | 69,988 | 66,990 | 65,409 | 72,650 | 78,374 | 90,168 | 92,857 | 90,091 | 90,091 | 90,168 |

Jaca | 115,333 | 130,491 | 117,379 | 125,332 | 121,727 | 114,501 | 128,616 | 126,599 | 154,909 | 188,206 | 182,647 | 183,355 | 195,490 |

HR 03-TOTAL | 294,370 | 327,557 | 306,968 | 301,086 | 405,275 | 400,456 | 503,400 | 568,271 | 706,592 | 794,964 | 1,019,852 | 1,204,130 | 1,305,993 |

Dugopolje | 3000 | 4000 | 9000 | 10,282 | 29,676 | 32,258 | 61,193 | 46,726 | 53,960 | 25,927 | 51,299 | 49,159 | 45,779 |

Kaštela | 28,501 | 29,987 | 26,893 | 25,509 | 54,880 | 32,670 | 41,016 | 42,406 | 50,191 | 60,364 | 83,605 | 100,530 | 114,990 |

Klis | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 500 | 877 | 1909 | 2931 | 4085 |

Sinj | 8689 | 9645 | 7649 | 7179 | 7694 | 7110 | 9035 | 10,691 | 10,266 | 9633 | 11,317 | 13,116 | 11,620 |

Solin | 2500 | 4000 | 5500 | 7530 | 14,590 | 11,118 | 6915 | 10,422 | 14,449 | 15,693 | 22,139 | 32,042 | 41,322 |

Split | 185,718 | 211,299 | 176,185 | 203,539 | 252,287 | 265,630 | 318,057 | 381,227 | 487,474 | 583,041 | 720,325 | 859,224 | 941,185 |

Trogir | 65,862 | 68,526 | 81,641 | 46,947 | 46,048 | 51,370 | 66,884 | 76,499 | 89,752 | 99,429 | 129,258 | 147,128 | 147,012 |

IT H3-TOTAL | 183,858 | 183,119 | 168,631 | 173,731 | 192,618 | 198,268 | 217,598 | 218,073 | 236,852 | 242,609 | 286,103 | 293,648 | 303,550 |

Caldogno | 1833 | 2029 | 1742 | 1651 | 1838 | 2121 | 1131 | 842 | 842 | 842 | 842 | 842 | 842 |

Gr. delle Abb. | 1769 | 3146 | 5642 | 3663 | 8396 | 9622 | 11,115 | 11,038 | 11,748 | 12,458 | 13,168 | 13,878 | 14,588 |

Lonigo | 7403 | 8013 | 7154 | 7136 | 6718 | 6949 | 6913 | 7130 | 7717 | 8304 | 8891 | 9478 | 10,065 |

Montagnana | 6121 | 6369 | 4636 | 4681 | 4667 | 3700 | 4055 | 4514 | 3248 | 1982 | 716 | 0 | 0 |

Vicenza | 166,732 | 163,562 | 149,457 | 156,600 | 170,999 | 175,876 | 194,384 | 194,549 | 213,297 | 219,023 | 262,486 | 270,000 | 279,871 |

NL 33-TOTAL | 471,342 | 557,097 | 642,852 | 728,607 | 814,361 | 922,282 | 953,188 | 1,065,836 | 1,148,228 | 1,243,377 | 1,354,261 | 1,469,674 | 1,445,218 |

Barendrecht | 12,801 | 14,187 | 15,573 | 16,959 | 18,345 | 19,260 | 20,924 | 22,601 | 24,012 | 25,013 | 28,755 | 28,106 | 27,980 |

Delft | 26,527 | 29,515 | 32,503 | 35,490 | 38,478 | 40,290 | 44,185 | 48,050 | 50,688 | 52,455 | 60,653 | 59,572 | 59,501 |

Dordrecht | 33,779 | 36,944 | 40,109 | 43,274 | 46,439 | 48,165 | 52,419 | 56,548 | 59,602 | 61,432 | 70,246 | 68,517 | 68,513 |

Ridderkerk | 12,350 | 13,638 | 14,927 | 16,215 | 17,503 | 18,430 | 19,986 | 21,473 | 22,625 | 23,494 | 27,160 | 26,702 | 26,529 |

Rotterdam | 373,226 | 448,964 | 524,702 | 600,440 | 676,179 | 778,000 | 796,000 | 896,000 | 969,000 | 1,058,000 | 1,141,000 | 1,261,000 | 1,237,000 |

Zwijndrecht | 12,659 | 13,848 | 15,038 | 16,228 | 17,418 | 18,137 | 19,674 | 21,165 | 22,302 | 22,982 | 26,447 | 25,777 | 25,695 |

Living Lab | The Year When the Maximum Acceleration of the Visitor Growth Rate Was Reached | The Year When the Maximum Growth Rate of Arrivals Is Reached (Carrying Capacities Threshold) | Lifecycle Stage |
---|---|---|---|

BE-23; BELGIUM, Prov. Oost-Vlaanderen and Antwerpen, the Scheldeland region | 2014 | 2017 | The second lifecycle stage-the demand dominance stage |

ES 24: SPAIN, Aragón, Huesca | 2014 | 2016 | The second lifecycle stage- the demand dominance stage |

HR-03; CROATIA, City of Split metropolitan area | 2016 | 2017 | The second lifecycle stage- the demand dominance stage |

IT H3; ITALY, Veneto, Vicenza | 2015 | 2018 | The second lifecycle stage- the demand dominance stage |

NL 33; NETHERLANDS, Zuid-Holland, The Rotterdam Metropolitan Region | 2015 | 2015 | The end of the second lifecycle stage |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Hell, M.; Petrić, L.
System Dynamics Approach to TALC Modeling. *Sustainability* **2021**, *13*, 4803.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su13094803

**AMA Style**

Hell M, Petrić L.
System Dynamics Approach to TALC Modeling. *Sustainability*. 2021; 13(9):4803.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su13094803

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Hell, Marko, and Lidija Petrić.
2021. "System Dynamics Approach to TALC Modeling" *Sustainability* 13, no. 9: 4803.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su13094803