Spatial Conflict of Production–Living–Ecological Space and Sustainable-Development Scenario Simulation in Yangtze River Delta Agglomerations

Production–living–ecological space (PLES) is a recent research hotspot on land planning and regional sustainable development in China. Taking the Yangtze River Delta agglomerations as a case study, this paper establishes a spatial-conflict index to identify the PLES conflicts, and then builds a cellular-automaton (CA) Markov model to simulate the PLES pattern in 2030 and to evaluate the influence on PLES conflicts under two scenarios. Results showed that the ecological space (ES) and the living–productive space (LPS) of the Yangtze River Delta agglomerations showed a descending tendency in 2010–2015, whereas ecological–productive space (EPS) and productive–ecological space (PES) reflected a small increase. EPS and PES had squeezed ES and LPS with urbanization and industrial development in this region. Meanwhile, the spatial conflicts of PLES worsened during the period, with the average of the spatial-conflict index (SCI) shifting from 0.283 to 0.522, and seemed to gain momentum. On the basis of scenario analysis for 2030, it was concluded that the “ecological red line policy”, appropriate restriction of urban expansion, and ecological management of the bank of the Yangtze River are helpful in alleviating PLES conflicts, and contribute to spatial structure and harmonizing. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable implications for spatial planning and sustainable development in the Yangtze River delta agglomerations.