Impacts of Climate and Phenology on the Yields of Early Mature Rice in China
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College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China
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College of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Heze University, Heze 274015, China
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School of Environmental Design and Rural Development, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G2W5, Canada
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Département de Géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H2V2B8, Canada
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Plants and Ecosystems Research Group (PLECO), University of Antwerp, B-2106 Antwerp, Belgium
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2020, 12(23), 10133; https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310133
Received: 16 October 2020 / Revised: 28 November 2020 / Accepted: 1 December 2020 / Published: 4 December 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agricultural Innovation and Sustainable Development)
Phenological variables are closely correlated with rice (Oryza sativa L.) yields as they play important roles in influencing and controlling the carbon allocations between plant organs, but their impacts on rice yields and their relative importance compared with climatic variables are not yet well investigated. In this study, the impacts and the relative importance of climatic and phenological variables on the yields of early mature rice were assessed using the trial data from 75 agricultural stations across China, spanning from 1981–2010. We found that both daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) temperatures during the growing season (from transplanting to maturity) increased significantly, while sunshine duration (SD) and precipitation (Prep) did not change significantly. The average transplanting date was advanced by 3.18 days/decade, and the heading (maturity) dates were delayed by 2.47 (4.55) days/decade, with yields significantly increased by 9.65 g/m3 per decade across all sites. Partial correlation coefficients between most phenological variables and rice yields were negative, whereas most of the climatic variables were positively correlated with rice yields. The average of partial correlation coefficients between transplanting, heading, and maturity dates and rice yields were −0.10, −0.15, and −0.01, respectively, and the average of coefficients between Tmax, Tmin, SD, and Prep and rice yields were 0.08, 0.02, 0.12, and −0.05, respectively. Interestingly enough, phenological variables were the dominating influencing factors on rice yields at 63% of the sites, suggesting that the relative importance of phenology to rice yields may be even higher than that of climate. The climatic variables were closely correlated with rice yields as they are fundamental growth materials for crops, and phenological variables strongly influenced the growth and development of rice. Our results highlight that phenology should be precisely evaluated in crop models to improve the accuracy of simulating their response to climate change. Furthermore, due to limited understanding of phenological processes, manipulative experiments are urgently needed to comprehensively improve our understanding of rice phenology and rice yield response to ongoing climate change.
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MDPI and ACS Style
Guo, Y.; Wu, W.; Liu, Y.; Wu, Z.; Geng, X.; Zhang, Y.; Bryant, C.R.; Fu, Y. Impacts of Climate and Phenology on the Yields of Early Mature Rice in China. Sustainability 2020, 12, 10133. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310133
AMA Style
Guo Y, Wu W, Liu Y, Wu Z, Geng X, Zhang Y, Bryant CR, Fu Y. Impacts of Climate and Phenology on the Yields of Early Mature Rice in China. Sustainability. 2020; 12(23):10133. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310133
Chicago/Turabian StyleGuo, Yahui, Wenxiang Wu, Yumei Liu, Zhaofei Wu, Xiaojun Geng, Yaru Zhang, Christopher R. Bryant, and Yongshuo Fu. 2020. "Impacts of Climate and Phenology on the Yields of Early Mature Rice in China" Sustainability 12, no. 23: 10133. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310133
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