Abstract
Proactive management of wastewater pipes requires the development of deterioration models that support maintenance and inspection prioritization. The complexity and the lack of understanding of the deterioration process make this task difficult. A semiparametric Bayesian geoadditive quantile regression approach is applied to estimate the deterioration of wastewater pipe from a set of covariates that are allowed to affect linearly and nonlinearly the response variable. Categorical covariates only affect linearly the response variable. In addition, geospatial information embedding the unknown and unobserved influential covariates is introduced as a surrogate covariate that capture global autocorrelations and local heterogeneities. Boosting optimization algorithm is formulated for variable selection and parameter estimation in the model. Three geoadditive quantile regression models (5%, 50% and 95%) are developed to evaluate the band of uncertainty in the prediction of the pipes scores. The proposed model is applied to the wastewater system of the city of Calgary. The results show that an optimal selection of covariates coupled with appropriate representation of the dependence between the covariates and the response increases the accuracy in the estimation of the uncertainty band of the response variable. The proposed modeling approach is useful for the prioritization of inspections and provides knowledge for future installations. In addition, decision makers will be informed of the probability of occurrence of extreme deterioration events when the identified causal factors, in the 5% and 95% quantiles, are observed on the field.