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Open AccessArticle

Forecasting Road Traffic Deaths in Thailand: Applications of Time-Series, Curve Estimation, Multiple Linear Regression, and Path Analysis Models

1
School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, 111 University Avenue, Suranaree Sub-District, Muang District, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
2
Department of Logistics Engineering and Transportation Technology, Faculty of Engineering and Industrial Technology, Kalasin University 62/1 Kaset Sombun Road, Kalasin Subdistrict, Mueang District, Kalasin 46000, Thailand
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2020, 12(1), 395; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010395
Received: 27 November 2019 / Revised: 23 December 2019 / Accepted: 2 January 2020 / Published: 3 January 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Traffic Safety within a Sustainable Transportation System)
In 2018, 19,931 people were killed in road accidents in Thailand. Thus, reduction in the number of accidents is urgently required. To provide a master plan for reducing the number of accidents, future forecast data are required. Thus, we aimed to identify the appropriate forecasting method. We considered four methods in this study: Time-series analysis, curve estimation, regression analysis, and path analysis. The data used in the analysis included death rate per 100,000 population, gross domestic product (GDP), the number of registered vehicles (motorcycles, cars, and trucks), and energy consumption of the transportation sector. The results show that the best three models, based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are the multiple linear regression model 3, time-series with exponential smoothing, and path analysis, with MAPE values of 6.4%, 8.1%, and 8.4%, respectively. View Full-Text
Keywords: accident forecasting; multiple linear regression model; time-series; path analysis accident forecasting; multiple linear regression model; time-series; path analysis
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Jomnonkwao, S.; Uttra, S.; Ratanavaraha, V. Forecasting Road Traffic Deaths in Thailand: Applications of Time-Series, Curve Estimation, Multiple Linear Regression, and Path Analysis Models. Sustainability 2020, 12, 395.

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