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Sustainability 2018, 10(12), 4780; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10124780

Risk Assessment and Mitigation Model for Overseas Steel-Plant Project Investment with Analytic Hierarchy Process—Fuzzy Inference System

1
POIST Task-force Team, POSCO (Pohang Iron and Steel Company), 6261 Donghaean-ro, Nam-gu, Pohang 37666, Korea
2
Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology & Graduate School of Engineering Mastership, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-ro, Nam-gu, Pohang 37673, Korea
3
Construction Engineering and Management, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 20 November 2018 / Revised: 11 December 2018 / Accepted: 12 December 2018 / Published: 14 December 2018
(This article belongs to the Collection Risk Assessment and Management)
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Abstract

This paper presents an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-fuzzy inference system (FIS) model to aid decision-makers in the risk assessment and mitigation of overseas steel-plant projects. Through a thorough literature review, the authors identified 57 risks associated with international steel construction, operation, and transference of new technologies. Pairwise comparisons of all 57 risks by 14 subject-matter experts resulted in a relative weighting. Furthermore, to mitigate human subjectivity, vagueness, and uncertainty, a fuzzy analysis based on the findings of two case studies was performed. From these combined analyses, weighted individual risk soring resulted in the following top five most impactful international steel project risks: procurement of raw materials; design errors and omissions; conditions of raw materials; technology spill prevention plan; investment cost and poor plant availability and performance. Risk mitigation measures are also presented, and risk scores are re-assessed through the AHP-FIS analysis model depicting an overall project risk score reduction. The model presented is a useful tool for industry performing steel project risk assessments. It also provides decision-makers with a better understanding of the criticality of risks that are likely to occur on international steel projects. View Full-Text
Keywords: Natural resource development; Risk assessment and mitigation; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Fuzzy Inference System (FIS); steel plant; Investment Sustainability; Engineer Procure and Construct (EPC) Natural resource development; Risk assessment and mitigation; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Fuzzy Inference System (FIS); steel plant; Investment Sustainability; Engineer Procure and Construct (EPC)
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Kim, M.-S.; Lee, E.-B.; Jung, I.-H.; Alleman, D. Risk Assessment and Mitigation Model for Overseas Steel-Plant Project Investment with Analytic Hierarchy Process—Fuzzy Inference System. Sustainability 2018, 10, 4780.

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